High-Risk Moves MLB Teams Should Make This Offseason
No World Series champion has ever been constructed without some risky maneuvers from the front office.
During this 2013-14 MLB offseason, teams with obvious roster deficiencies or long-term uncertainty can better prepare themselves for championship contention by going out on a limb. That means either over-committing to top performers or trusting volatile/aging players and accepting responsibility for the consequences.
Each of the following moves could backfire and sting franchises for years to come...or they could be responsible for elevating them to prominence ahead of schedule.
*Stats provided by Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs unless otherwise specified.
Los Angeles Angels: Sign Bartolo Colon to Multi-Year Deal
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Risks abound for any team that's considering Bartolo Colon this offseason.
Assuming that Andy Pettitte stays retired, Colon will be the oldest starting pitcher in the majors next summer. He has fared very well in three seasons since returning from elbow surgery (3.32 ERA, 3.73 K/BB in 507.0 IP), but there's been missed time along the way. The former American League Cy Young Award winner landed on the disabled list in 2011 and 2013, and he served a 50-game PED suspension in 2012 that understandably leads us to question the legitimacy of his late-career resurgence.
But Colon doesn't need to sustain All-Star-caliber performance to make a meaningful impact on the Los Angeles Angels rotation. The club has hardly any starting depth behind Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson.
The Angels are also running out of free-agent alternatives. They seemingly had the inside track to sign Southern California natives Dan Haren, Ricky Nolasco and Jason Vargas. Unfortunately, those veterans have since committed to the Los Angeles Dodgers, Minnesota Twins and Kansas City Royals, respectively.
MLB.com's Alden Gonzalez expects one of L.A.'s new starters to be acquired via free agency, but he explains that there's only $6-8 million available to spend on that individual in 2014 if owner Arte Moreno wants to stay beneath the luxury-tax threshold.
Hence the multi-year deal suggestion. The Angels ought to lock up Colon through 2015 for, say, $17 million plus incentives, and back-load the contract such that he doesn't cost much this coming season.
Inking this pudgy right-hander would convert one of the team's most dangerous rivals into an ally. Since 2011, he's been inexplicably dominant in eight appearances against the Angels, per Baseball Reference (subscription required).
Minnesota Twins: Sign Ubaldo Jimenez
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The combination of Ubaldo Jimenez's age—he's only turning 30 in January—and strikeout artistry puts him in line for at least a three-year contract this offseason.
If the Minnesota Twins are serious about contending in the near future, then general manager Terry Ryan should hold his nose and add this former AL Central rival.
Jimenez humiliated the Twins during their final home game of the 2013 campaign. He tied a career high with 13 strikeouts to clinch an AL Wild Card Game berth for the Cleveland Indians. In the process, the right-hander ensured that Minnesota's summer ended with six straight defeats.
Agreeing to terms with Ricky Nolasco was a nice start for the Twins, who have been attempting to revamp MLB's worst starting rotation, but generating more swings-and-misses is a key for this club to achieve immediate competitive relevance. Eight different Minnesota pitchers started at least 10 games last season; none of them finished with better than six strikeouts per nine innings. So it's no surprise that Twins rotation members pitched the fewest innings in the majors while surrendering the most hits.
There's no denying that Jimenez would be a risky acquisition. Whomever signs him has to guarantee a deal with an average annual value in the eight figures, and let's not forget how he struggled in 2012 (5.40 ERA, 1.61 WHIP in 176.2 IP).
With that said, considering the barren state of the existing Twins rotation and the fact that their 2014 first-round draft pick is protected, they don't have much to lose by rolling the dice on this free agent.
Seattle Mariners: Guarantee 3 Years to Carlos Beltran
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Carlos Beltran isn't the best hitter on the free-agent market, but he's arguably the most popular. MLB teams covet his switch-hitting ability, postseason dominance, clubhouse influence and reasonable asking price.
Robinson Cano is aiming for a decadelong deal, while Jacoby Ellsbury and Shin-Soo Choo reportedly want their next contracts to span seven years. Even Nelson Cruz expects $75 million, per Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.
But Beltran might settle for just three years this offseason, given the news from ESPN New York's Wallace Matthews that the New York Yankees—rumored to be his fiercest suitor—are reluctant to guarantee anything beyond 2015.
If there's a team that needs his skills more than the Yankees, it's the Seattle Mariners.
They finished 27th in the majors in runs scored during the 2012 season. Last year saw them jump to 22nd, but several of the biggest reasons for that improvement—Raul Ibanez and Kendrys Morales—have entered free agency.
Beltran embodies the best of both those players.
Due to solid arm strength, he's a superior defensive outfielder to Ibanez, plus a comparable power threat at the plate. And swinging from both sides (like Morales does) has enabled him to succeed against left-handed pitching. Collectively, the Mariners posted a brutal .229/.293/.364 batting line versus southpaws this past summer.
Younger free-agent difference-makers like Choo and Curtis Granderson don't suit Seattle's needs due to their dramatic platoon splits. Meanwhile, signing Cruz or Mike Napoli means sending a compensatory draft pick to a fellow American League team, whereas adding Beltran would stash it with the St. Louis Cardinals in the Senior Circuit.
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Cincinnati Reds: Extend Homer Bailey for $100-Plus Million
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The Cincinnati Reds initially feared that Homer Bailey would never realize his potential as a former first-round draft pick. Through three major league seasons, Bailey owned a discouraging 5.45 earned run average, .287 batting average against and mediocre strikeout rate.
Thankfully, he has since steadily progressed toward excellence.
From 2010 to 2013, the La Grange, Texas, native annually improved in terms of ERA, FIP, K/BB and IP/GS. Bailey also threw two no-hitters along the way and thrived in limited postseason experience.
If Bailey continues along that path for just one more year, he's going to reach free agency at age 28 as possibly the No. 1 starter in the entire class. Two pitchers who could rival him for that distinction, Max Scherzer and Clayton Kershaw, will likely ink contract extensions before the end of the 2014 season, and a third, James Shields, is four-and-a-half years Bailey's senior.
Preventing Bailey from testing the free-agent waters will require more than just desire; the Reds need to overwhelm him at the negotiating table. MLB.com's Mark Sheldon acknowledges that the right-hander has shown "little interest" in signing a deal prematurely.
He probably deserves more than Anibal Sanchez's five-year, $80 million payday, but certainly not Matt Cain's $112.5 million extension of equal length. The Reds should split the difference and add an extra year to stabilize their rotation for the rest of this decade.
That will look like a bargain if he blossoms into a Cy Young Award threat.
Pittsburgh Pirates: Trade for Chase Headley
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San Diego Padres third baseman Chase Headley could be traded, extended or simply retained through his final year of arbitration eligibility. At the GM meetings, Josh Byrnes wasn't ready to rule out any of those possibilities, per Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors.
Headley descended back to Earth in 2013—.250/.347/.400, 13 HR—after finishing fifth in NL MVP balloting the previous year, but the Padres will likely continue asking for a deep minor league package in trade discussions.
The Pittsburgh Pirates are one of few teams in the majors who could surrender multiple high-ceiling players without depleting their farm system. If, for example, the Padres believe that their 29-year-old switch-hitter is worthy of exchanging for prospects Alen Hanson and Nick Kingham, Pittsburgh's front office could still rest easy knowing that Gregory Polanco and Jameson Taillon are coming up through the pipeline soon.
The 2013 playoff-bound Pirates were effective in many facets of the game, but their plate discipline and defense at the hot corner still have room to improve. Acquiring the Gold Glove-caliber Headley would instantly remedy both issues by allowing them to shift Pedro Alvarez to first base and non-tender Garrett Jones (he of the .289 OBP this past season).
There's obviously a risk that Headley reaches free agency following the 2014 season without having substantially improved the team. By reverting to his 2012 form, however, he could be the X-factor that propels the Pirates to a World Series title for the first time since the Jimmy Carter administration.
Ely is a national MLB Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report and a sportscaster for 90.5 WVUM in Miami. He wants to make sweet, social love with all of you on Twitter.
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