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One Major Caveat for Suitors of the Top MLB Offseason Targets

Karl BuscheckNov 19, 2013

Even the top MLB offseason targets come with their drawbacks.

While agents spend the entire hot stove season talking up their respective clients, there are also plenty of flaws they would prefer to keep quiet. From drastic platoon splits to PED links to the fundamental inability to stay on the field, there are lots of red flags for general mangers to consider. 

So, here's a look at the top MLB offseason targets and one reason why teams should be wary of each star.

Note: All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs.com.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia

1 of 10

Caveat: His glove

The Philadelphia Phillies' decision to hand Carlos Ruiz a three-year, $26 million contract is a fortuitous sign for Jarrod Saltalamacchia.

Not only is Saltalamacchia substantially younger (28) than Ruiz (34), but he was also substantially better offensively in 2013. Saltalamacchia hit 14 home runs and posted an .804 OPS while Ruiz tallied five long balls and a .688 OPS.

The catch for Saltalamacchia, however, is his defense. As Rob Bradford of WEEI observes, 2013 was the first time in Saltalamacchia's career that he dropped his catching ERA below 4.00.

Even with that improvement, though, there are still serious concerns about his glove. During the World Series, Saltalamacchia didn't see the field again after his errant throw in Game 3 set up the infamous game-ending obstruction call.

There's no doubt that whoever signs Saltalamacchia will be landing one of the top offensive catchers in the game. At a position where defense is at a premium, however, his glove is a major downgrade.

Mike Napoli

2 of 10

Caveat: His hips

With 20 home runs in six straight campaigns, Mike Napoli is one of the most powerful hitters available on the free-agent market this offseason.

If things had gone to plan last winter, however, Napoli wouldn't even be available. Last offseason, Napoli and the Boston Red Sox agreed to a three-year, $39 million deal only to renegotiate the contract to a one-year, $5 million agreement after Napoli's physical revealed a degenerative disorder in his hips.

Clearly, Napoli's hips didn't bother him in 2013, as he clubbed 38 doubles, 23 home runs and posted a .223 ISO. Before his next deal becomes official, however, a thorough physical is in order.

Ultimately, concerns over Napoli's hips could limit just how lengthy of contract offers the 32-year-old receives.

Carlos Beltran

3 of 10

Caveat: His contract demands

Coming off a season in which he hit .296/.339/.491 with 24 home runs, Carlos Beltran is well-positioned to score one last payday.

According to Tim Brown of Yahoo! Sports, Beltran has his sights set on a three- to four-year deal. The veteran will be 37 next April, so a three-year deal would last through his age-39 season, while a four-year pact would take him until he turns 40.

That's a serious commitment for a player who is going to spend an increasingly large amount of time in the designated hitter's spot. As Brown observes, however, six teams have already expressed interest in the slugger.

Giving Beltran a three-year deal, let alone a fourth year, would be a big gamble. Potential suitors will have to decide if his impressive playoff résumé and the lack of power on the market make this a risk worth taking.

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Nelson Cruz

4 of 10

Caveat: Biogenesis

Nelson Cruz was on his way to a monster contract year before MLB hit the slugger with a 50-game suspension for PED usage last summer.

The ban meant that Cruz made it into just 109 games in 2013. However, the right fielder still swatted 27 home runs, which is tied for the second most among all free agents.

Still, there are many skeptics of the veteran outfielder. David Schoenfield of ESPN writes about the confluence of warning signs surrounding the two-time All-Star, “Cruz, leaving Texas and coming off a PED suspension while entering his age-33 season, is like the Triple Crown of Red Flags.”

It's a stern warning from Schoenfield, indeed. With at least 22 home runs in five straight seasons and a .495 career slugging percentage, there is sure to be a few teams who will overlook the concerns.

Ervin Santana

5 of 10

Caveat: His "timing"

As B/R Lead Writer Gabe Zaldivar explains in the video above, some pitchers just have “impeccable timing.”

Ervin Santana is one of those guys. In 2012, Santana had such an awful season with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim that the club dealt him to the Kansas City Royals in a salary dump.

For the Royals in 2013, however, the tall right-hander went 9-10 with a 3.24 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. Santana has now pitched at least 211 innings in three of the last four seasons. Now, the starter is looking to capitalize on that success.

His agents are looking for a five-year, $112 million deal, per Joel Sherman of the NY Post. Even if Santana falls short of his goal, there's no player who earned himself as much money as Santana did with his 2013 showing.

However, it's for that reason that interested clubs will find themselves in a tricky spot: Are they investing in the 2013 version of Santana or the 2012 edition?

Shin-Soo Choo

6 of 10

Caveat: Lefties

Shin-Soo Choo is in line to receive a substantial raise this offseason and for good reason.

In 2013, the Cincinnati Reds leadoff man hit .285 with 34 doubles, 21 home runs and 20 stolen bases. His rare combination of on-base skills (.423 OBP in 2013) and power potential should attract plenty of suitors. There's just one major problem with the 31-year-old's game: He's dreadful against left-handers.

Check out Choo's production against lefties in comparison to his output against righties last season.

  • Against Lefties: .215/.347/.265, 0 home runs
  • Against Righties: .317/.457/.554, 21 home runs

The power outage against left-handed pitchers is striking. Those stat lines raise alarms as to whether Choo should even be an everyday player, let alone whether he is worth the Jayson Werth-type dollars that his agent, Scott Boras, is after.

Brian McCann

7 of 10

Caveat: His future position

After connecting on at least 20 home runs in seven of the last eight seasons, Brian McCann is on his way to a huge payout.

As B/R MLB Lead Writer Zachary D. Rymer remarks in the video above, however, there are concerns that McCann has already spent too much time behind the plate. In 2013, he appeared in just 102 games, and his total number of games played has decreased in each of the past four seasons.

McCann will be 30 by Opening Day 2014, and it seems inevitable that he will spend an increasingly large amount of time at either the DH spot or first base. His bat is powerful enough to play at either of those spots. However, if he's not destined to be a catcher for long, then what exactly is the purpose of paying him as if he will be?

Jacoby Ellsbury

8 of 10

Caveat: Durability

Boras has been using Carl Crawford's $142 million deal as a blueprint for the contract he intends to land for Jacoby Ellsbury.

In a lot of ways, that's a logical comparison. Ellsbury owns a slightly higher career OPS (.789) to Crawford's .771. Plus, Ellsbury plays center field while Crawford is limited to left. As Ricky Doyle of NESN writes, however, there's a crucial detail that Boras is overlooking:

"

In placing Ellsbury above Crawford, Boras fails to acknowledge the elephant in the room: Ellsbury's durability. Sure, as Boras has stated, Ellsbury's injuries were mostly beyond the center-fielder's control...But it doesn't change the fact that Ellsbury missed a big chunk of two seasons (2010 and 2012).

"

As Doyle explains, Ellsbury has averaged 113.7 games in six full seasons with the Red Sox. That's quite the elephant.

If he can stay healthy, Ellsbury's combination of stellar defense, on-base skills and speed will make him a dynamic player for his next employer. Now, potential suitors need to determine just how big that “if” is.

Masahiro Tanaka

9 of 10

Caveat: His pitch count

In 2013, Masahiro Tanaka posted a 1.24 ERA while going 24-0 for the Rakuten Golden Eagles in Japan's Nippon Professional Baseball league.

It's statistics like those that led to reports that the posting fee for the right-hander will approach $100 million.

However, there are also some legitimate reservations about how the Golden Eagles have utilized Tanaka. The starter threw 160 pitches in Game 6 of the Japan Series only to come back a day later and toss 15 more pitches to close out the series.

One scout who watched Tanaka pitch during the Japan Series told David Waldstein of the New York Times that he is “worried” about Tanaka's arm.

An official from an MLB club expected to bid on the starter told Sherman, “That is not standard operating procedure for how you use someone you see as an investment.”

It certainly isn't. As Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports observes, however, there is a precedent for just this situation. Passan writes, Yu Darvish “regularly threw more than 120 pitches” while still in Japan. Last season, Darvish finished second in AL Cy Young Award voting.

Now, potential bidders will have to weigh the risk of his elevated pitch counts with the reward of his prodigious talent.

Robinson Cano

10 of 10

Caveat: Unrealistic expectations

As New York Yankees president Randy Levine explained to Wallace Matthews of ESPN New York, the club would love to have the second baseman back—just not on his outlandish terms:

"

We want Robbie back. We think Robbie is terrific, but we have no interest in doing any 10-year deals and no interest in paying $300 million to any player. Until he gets a little more realistic, we have nothing to talk about.

"

With such exorbitant demands, it's hard to think that any team will have much to talk about with Cano. Even if the second baseman does come down from his lofty expectations, there's a good chance that an interested team will have to go beyond its comfort zone—either in terms of years or dollars.

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