Predicting the Biggest Regrets MLB Teams Will Have This Offseason
Every offseason has its fair share of deals that work out for everyone involved, but by the same token, there are always at least a few big regrets MLB teams have each winter.
Whether it is a team shelling out too much money or too many years to sign a free agent, deciding against taking a chance on a bounce-back candidate who winds up panning out or something else altogether, there are plenty of reasons for offseason regret.
At this point, without knowing how much money free agents are going to get or where they'll wind up signing, this is purely speculation. But here are a few potential players who could wind up being cause for regret this offseason.
Paying Fernando Rodney for His 2012 Performance
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Though he had 87 saves to his credit, including a 37-save season in 2009, Fernando Rodney had a 4.29 career ERA and 1.463 WHIP when he hit the free-agent market prior to the 2012 season and found little interest on the free-agent market as a result.
He wound up agreeing to a one-year, $1.75 million deal that included a $2.5 million option for 2013, and he turned in a phenomenal 2012 season, converting 48 of his 50 save chances and posting a pristine 0.60 ERA and 0.777 WHIP.
The 36-year-old still managed to save 37 games this past season, but he also blew eight saves and posted a 3.38 ERA and 1.335 WHIP, as he was far from the dominant force he was the previous season.
The writers at MLB Trade Rumors have the right-hander projected to sign a two-year, $18 million deal this offseason. But given the fact that he's past his prime and his one terrific season stands as a major outlier, that seems like a risky figure.
Not Taking a Chance on Michael Morse
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This year's free-agent market is notably thin on power bats. Raul Ibanez (29), Robinson Cano (27) and Nelson Cruz (27) are the only players on the market to tally more than 25 home runs during the 2013 season.
Cano and Cruz both figure to command sizable contracts as two of the market's top position players, while Ibanez slumped badly in the second half and hit just .203/.295/.345 with five home runs after the All-Star break.
There are a few bargain options on the market, as Curtis Granderson will cost less than he normally would have thanks to an injury-plagued 2013 and Mark Reynolds will be a cheap source of home runs, but the steal of the free-agent market as far as hitters are concerned may wind up being Michael Morse.
A late-bloomer, Morse hit .303/.360/.550 with 31 home runs and 95 RBI for the Washington Nationals in a breakout 2011 season. He dealt with injuries the following season but still managed to hit .291/.321/.470 with 18 home runs and 62 RBI in 406 at-bats.
The 31-year-old was traded to the Mariners prior to last season, and then again to the Orioles in August, but he hit just .215/.270/.381 in 312 combined at-bats. He'll likely have to settle for a one-year deal this offseason, and whoever signs him could wind up with the steal of the winter.
Signing Phil Hughes to a Multi-Year Deal
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Taken with the No. 23 pick in the 2004 draft, Phil Hughes was ranked as the No. 4 prospect in all of baseball entering the 2007, according to Baseball America.
After splitting time in the minors and with the New York Yankees in 2007 and 2008, and spending the bulk of 2009 in the bullpen, Hughes joined the rotation full-time in 2010, going 18-8 with a 4.19 ERA and making the AL All-Star team.
Those numbers dropped to 5-5 with a 5.79 ERA in 17 games (14 starts) in 2011, but he bounced back with a solid season once again in 2012, going 16-13 with a 4.23 ERA and throwing a career-high 191.1 innings.
In a contract year in 2013, Hughes managed to stay healthy enough to pitch 30 games (29 starts), but he struggled all season, finishing 4-14 with a 5.19 ERA and 1.455 WHIP.
It's not often a 28-year-old with two 16-plus-win seasons under his belt hits the free-agent market with little market value, but he could have a hard time finding a multi-year deal. However, in a thin market for impact starters, someone may be willing to pony up for more than one year, and it would be a big mistake if a team did.
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Not Taking a Chance on Josh Johnson
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This one does not apply to the San Diego Padres, who have reportedly signed Josh Johnson to a one-year, $8 million deal that includes another $1.25 million in performance incentives, according to Jerry Crasnick of ESPN. For the other 29 teams though, missing out on signing him could wind up being a major regret.
Not too long ago, Johnson was one of the most dominant pitchers in all of baseball; he went 11-6 with an NL-best 2.30 ERA for the Marlins in 2010, making his second straight All-Star appearance and finishing fifth in Cy Young voting.
After an injury-plagued 2011 season in which he made just nine starts but put up terrific numbers, going 3-1 with a 1.64 ERA, Johnson managed to stay healthy for the duration of the 2012 season.
In 31 starts, he was 8-14 with a 3.81 ERA while pitching for a poor Marlins team, and many felt a change of scenery would do him well. He got just that when he was dealt to the Blue Jays in a blockbuster deal last offseason, and many expected big things from the 29-year-old in Toronto.
It wound up being just the opposite, though, as Johnson went just 2-8 with a 6.20 ERA over 16 starts before missing significant time with a forearm strain and then undergoing surgery to remove bone spurs from his right elbow at the beginning of October.
All of that will likely mean a one-year deal for Johnson this offseason, and he looks to have more upside than perhaps any other reclamation project on the market this offseason.
His 4.62 FIP and 3.58 xFIP, as well as his abnormally high 18.5 percent HR/FB rate and .356 BABIP, suggest he was suffered from some bad luck in 2013. A bounce-back season looks like a safe bet in the right situation, and the teams that wind up missing out on signing him could come to seriously regret it.
Giving Up a Draft Pick to Overpay for Stephen Drew
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Finding a legitimate starting shortstop on the free-agent market is no easy feat, as this years class is made up of Stephen Drew and Jhonny Peralta and little else behind them.
Peralta is a below-average defensive option, and he may wind up being pursued as a third baseman or even corner outfielder rather than a shortstop this offseason. That leaves Drew as the only real everyday option to be had in free agency.
After down seasons in 2011 and 2012, he bounced back with a solid performance on a one-year deal with the Red Sox, hitting .253/.333/.443 with 13 home runs and 67 RBI to post a 3.4 fWAR.
The Red Sox made him a qualifying offer to kick off the offseason, but he turned down the $14.1 million deal for a chance at a multi-year offer and more money on the open market.
The writers at MLB Trade Rumors have him predicted to land the same four-year, $48 million deal that Michael Bourn got from the Cleveland Indians last offseason. That was an overpay by the Indians at the time and would be a huge overpay should someone in fact shell out that kind of money and draft pick compensation for Drew.
Signing Ricky Nolasco to a Four-Year Deal
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Last offseason, the Detroit Tigers re-signed Anibal Sanchez to a five-year, $80 million deal after acquiring him from the Miami Marlins at the trade deadline. This winter, another Marlins castoff is set to cash in on a late-season run with a contender in Ricky Nolasco.
The right-hander entered the 2013 season at 76-64 with a 4.49 ERA through seven career seasons and was 5-8 with a 3.85 ERA through 18 starts in Miami before being shipped to the Marlins at the beginning of July.
Through his first 12 starts with the Los Angeles Dodgers, the 30-year-old was 8-1 with a 2.07 ERA, proving to be a huge addition to the team's late-season push. However, he stumbled down the stretch, with 24 hits and 17 earned runs allowed in 12 innings of work over his final three starts.
Nolasco ranks as one of the top second-tier starters on the market this offseason and would be a useful addition to most staffs.
According to Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports, he has received multiple four-year offers and is projected to land somewhere between $52 million and $60 million over four years. That's a steep price to play for someone who is a No. 3 starter at best and likely to be a regrettable deal for whoever makes it.
Giving Jacoby Ellsbury 'Carl Crawford Money'
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After Robinson Cano, the top player on this year's free-agent market may be speedy center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury—and the Scott Boras client certainly won't come cheap this winter.
The 30-year-old turned in a huge 2011 season, hitting .321/.376/.552 with 32 home runs, 105 RBI and 39 stolen bases to finish second to Justin Verlander in AL MVP voting.
That was sandwiched between years in which he played just 18 and 74 games, though, as fractured ribs and a severe shoulder injury saw him spend a good deal of time on the disabled list.
His power has yet to return since 2011, as he's hit just 13 home runs in 880 at-bats, but he shown he can still make a significant impact atop the lineup with a .298/.355/.426 line and AL-high 52 steals this past season.
Those numbers, combined with plus defense in center field, led to a 5.8 fWAR, which was good for fourth among all MLB outfielders.
That's left Ellsbury looking for a deal similar to the seven-year, $142 million contract Carl Crawford received prior to the 2011 season, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports. But while he's a dynamic table-setter and may very well get that kind of money, he's simply not worth it given his diminished power and injury history.
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