Week 12 NFL Picks Against the Spread: Underdogs That Will Cover Your Bet

Week 12 of the NFL season is on the horizon, making this an opportune time to analyze the opening lines and make an early bet ahead of the general public.

If you aren’t exactly sure which way to lean this early in the week, fret not, as I have you covered.

Keep reading for the latest spread for every game, my picks for the winner of each and a closer look at a handful of underdogs that are almost guaranteed to cover the spread.

Away Team	Home Team	Spread	Prediction (ATS)
New Orleans Saints	Atlanta Falcons	NO -7	NO
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Detroit Lions	DET -9.5	DET
Jacksonville Jaguars	Houston Texans	HOU -10	HOU
Minnesota Vikings	Green Bay Packers
San Diego Chargers	Kansas City Chiefs	KC -4.5	KC
Carolina Panthers	Miami Dolphins	CAR -5	CAR
Pittsburgh Steelers	Cleveland Browns	CLE -2.5	CLE
Chicago Bears	St. Louis Rams	STL -1	STL
New York Jets	Baltimore Ravens	BAL -3.5	BAL
Tennessee Titans	Oakland Raiders	OAK -1.5	OAK
Indianapolis Colts	Arizona Cardinals	ARI -2.5	IND
Dallas Cowboys	New York Giants	NYG -3	DAL
Denver Broncos	New England Patriots	DEN -2.5	NE
San Francisco 49ers	Washington Redskins	SF -4	SF

Indianapolis Colts (+2.5) over Arizona Cardinals

The Colts are heading to the desert as a slight underdog but are likely to leave as victors. This team may be flawed, but it is tough to beat.

While the Cardinals have remained surprisingly competitive in 2013, they will simply get outworked and outplayed on Sunday. Indianapolis has been exposing opponents on the road, and there will not be an exception for Arizona.

Andrew Luck has guided his team to victory in four of five contests away from Lucas Oil Stadium and is keeping the Colts competitive despite the loss of Reggie Wayne, the team’s best receiver.

Deficits haven’t been an issue either, as the Colts capped off yet another comeback—on the road, of course—against the Tennessee Titans in Week 11. It was the sixth time that the squad has won a game after trailing by 12 or more since Luck came into the league in 2012.

The young signal-caller also improved his record to 14-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less, proving that the Colts are a clutch team that is dangerous in close matchups.

Arizona may be on a three-game winning streak, but when you look at the quality of opponents—Jacksonville, Houston and Atlanta—it helps to put things in perspective. This club isn’t as good as it seems and the Cards will outright lose at home in Week 11.

 

Dallas Cowboys (+3) over New York Giants

The Cowboys have been made a small underdog in their NFC East showdown with the Giants, but there is every reason to believe that Dallas can exit East Rutherford with a win.

The ‘Boys are coming off a much-needed bye, getting a chance to rest and prepare for the latter portion of their 2013 campaign. With the first divisional crown and playoff appearance since 2009 on the line, Dallas knows it must finish strong to live up to expectations.

Fortunately, owner/GM Jerry Jones built this squad to beat a mistake-prone opponent like the G-Men.

The Cowboys rank among the league leaders in turnover differential, currently sitting at plus-11 after 10 games. The defense has taken the ball away on 22 occasions and the offense has coughed it up a mere 11.

Contrast that with Big Blue, who have created a respectable 18 takeaways but given the ball away 29 times. That is by far the highest mark in the NFL and a large reason why the Giants started out their 2013 season so poorly.

Things have improved in recent weeks—New York has only turned the ball over six times during its current four-game winning streak—but the team is bound to revert against a Dallas defense that thrives on big plays.

Don’t be surprised if Giants signal-caller Eli Manning throws a critical interception down the stretch and allows the Cowboys to win this one late. Definitely take the points in a game that will almost certainly be decided by a field goal or less.

 

New England Patriots (+2.5) over Denver Broncos

The Pats have yet to play their Week 11 contest, but it is safe to pick them for their home Week 12 matchup with the Broncos.

While the short week is less than ideal when going up against an elite squad like Denver, it is more than enough time for New England head coach Bill Belichick to scheme up a plan to stop the opposing offense and for superstar quarterback Tom Brady to prepare his side to score a boatload of points.

These two familiar foes clashed last year during the regular season, with Brady once again getting the best of fellow future of Hall of Fame quarterback Peyton Manning in a 31-21 win.

New England controlled the tempo and utilized the ground game to get a win in that recent matchup, two things that will again be critical come Sunday Night Football in Week 12.

The Patriots are poised to explode on offense over the next few weeks. The receivers are finally starting to gain a real rapport with Brady, tight end Rob Gronkowski seems close to 100 percent healthy and versatile running back Shane Vereen will likely be returning to the lineup to give the team a proper third-down option and pass-catcher out of the backfield.

As long as New England comes away unscathed from its upcoming Monday Night Football clash with the Carolina Panthers, the team should be primed to pull off an upset victory against Denver.