Nelson Cruz Not the Answer in the Outfield for the New York Mets

The New York Mets signed Nelson Cruz as an international free agent out of the Dominican Republic in 1998. Fifteen years later, the 33-year-old outfielder has turned into a solid major leaguer. He’s now a free agent, looking for a lucrative multi-year deal after rejecting a one-year, $14.1 million qualifying offer from the Texas Rangers.

The Mets are in desperate need of power in their corner outfield positions. Cruz can provide that; he’s hit 20 or more home runs for the last five consecutive seasons. The Dominican outfielder has also posted a .823 OPS during his nine-year big league career.

Although Cruz could be a fit in Flushing on paper, Sandy Alderson and the Mets should stay away from reuniting with their former international signee.

Disparity between home/road splits

The Ballpark at Arlington has long been a fun place for position players. It’s built a reputation of being a stadium that favors hitters over pitchers. Cruz has enjoyed playing half his games there for the majority of his career.

In 405 games played at home (1,435 at-bats), Cruz has put together a .294/.356/.556 line with 92 home runs and 278 RBI. Boasting a .912 OPS, the outfielder has been a dominant force in the middle of Ron Washington’s lineup.

Away from Arlington, it’s been a different story. Cruz has played in 399 games on the road, totaling 1,456 at-bats, providing an equal sample size. He’s hitting .242/.299/.435 with 65 home runs and 211 RBI. As a visitor, his line drive rate drops three percent (18.5 percent to 15.3 percent). His home run rate drops nearly seven percent (20 percent to 13.5 percent).

He becomes much less productive on the road, and his OPS drops nearly 200 points to .734.

The Mets are in search of a power-hitting outfielder to anchor the lineup behind David Wright. After looking at these statistics from Baseball Reference and FanGraphs, he likely won’t put up the same numbers if he plays half his games at Citi Field.

Below average fielder

As we’ve seen in previous seasons, the Mets are willing to sacrifice defense for the chance of receiving more offense. That’s the only reason why Lucas Duda saw as much time in the outfield as he did.

In their search for acquiring more productive outfielders, defense should be taken into account. It was clear to see the improvement in New York’s performance last season once players, such as Juan Lagares, Marlon Byrd and Eric Young Jr., manned the positions daily.

Cruz’s defensive prowess has been in steady decline, according to advanced metrics. The statistic I’ve taken most note of is Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR). He hasn’t put together a season with an average UZR rating since 2010.

Over the past three seasons, Cruz’s UZR has come in at -6.2, -3.7, and -4.3.

As the 33-year-old continues to advance in age, his defense will likely continue to decline. Put him in a more spacious outfield like Citi Field, and I would be shocked if he didn’t keep going on a downward trend.

Connection to PEDs

Cruz was enjoying a big year for Texas in 2013. He was looking forward to finishing the season strong in anticipation of commanding a lucrative, multi-year contract this winter. He hit a bump in the road by being wrapped up in the Biogenesis scandal, though. The outfielder served a 50-game suspension toward the end of the season, leaving his team when they needed him most.

While players are allowed to make mistakes and people deserve second chances, it wouldn’t be wise for the Mets to take a chance on Cruz. He’s been known to be a tremendous teammate and has recent postseason experience, but there is doubt in my mind whether or not he’ll continue to be productive at the plate.

All free agent signings and trade acquisitions include an element of risk. Some are more risky than others. That’s where the prospect of signing Cruz would fall.

Length of his next contract

Fresh off rejecting the qualifying offer from the Rangers, Cruz is obviously in search of a multi-year deal. One would imagine his market value would be affected from his connection to PEDs, but it doesn’t look like teams will be offering a discount for his services.

Being a free agent for the first time in his career, Cruz is likely looking for a deal around three or four years for approximately $15 million per season.

If he was entering his age-28 or age-29 season, this would be a different conversation.

He’s not.

If the Mets are looking to commit a considerable sum of money to a power hitter beyond 2014, they should be exploring other options.