MLB Free Agency 2014: 10 Players Teams Would Be Insane to Let Walk Away
Nobody enjoys saying goodbye, a conversation MLB teams should avoid at all costs when negotiating with these free agents.
'Tis the season of free-agent shopping, which means several stars will shift their allegiances to the highest bidder. As a result, plenty of those available sluggers and hurlers will get handed many more dollars than their stat sheets merit.
If the St. Louis Cardinals can look back at not retaining Albert Pujols and marvel at the deadly bullet they dodged, it's hard to critique any general managers with the patience to play it safe. Some future deals (I'm looking at you, Ervin Santana) are simply a disaster waiting to happen for a squad desperate to prove its dedication to assembling a winner.
But I've been told this pessimism thing is an unhealthy habit. (Do they really know what they're talking about though?) A few hidden gems exist in the open market, waiting to be discovered at a potential discount.
Those are the guys teams can't let go. Now's the time to remind those valuable players that they have etched out a life in that town, enrolled the kiddies in school and formed flourishing friendships with teammates.
Anything to keep them around.
Note: All advanced stats, unless otherwise noted, were obtained from FanGraphs.com. Contract information is courtesy of Cot's Baseball Contracts.
Glaring Omissions
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Remember, this is not a list of the top free agents. These unsigned wanderers will receive some of the offseason's biggest deals, and that's precisely why they are not must-signs for their current teams.
OF Jacoby Ellsbury
When has signing a speedy outfielder ever backfired on the Boston Red Sox? And look how well Michael Bourn is performing for the Cleveland Indians. Jacoby Ellsbury would be a no-brainer to retain if the Sox could ensure his 2012 season will stick, but it's understandable if they get cold feet on paying over $100 million to an oft-injured outfielder who relies on his legs.
OF Shin-Soo Choo
Only Joey Votto posted a higher on-base percentage in the National League last season, so losing Shin-Soo Choo would certainly derail the Cincinnati Reds' offense. But he's a 31-year-old who plays poor defense and hit .215 against lefties in 2013, so I wouldn't blame them for balking at a $100 million price tag.
RP Joe Nathan
Following Mariano Rivera's retirement, Joe Nathan now brandishes the finest long-term track record of any reliever. Recording a 1.39 ERA and 43 saves last season will get the veteran paid, probably too much for a pitcher tossing 60-70 innings a season.
SP Matt Garza
Sure, he could become this year's Anibal Sanchez, but Matt Garza has registered a fielding independent pitching mark (FIP) below 4.00 just twice during his eight-year career, including a so-so 3.88 mark last season. He teased ace upside in 2011, but Garza has otherwise performed as a solid, middle-tier starter.
SP Ervin Santana
You want to give five years and $75 million to a pitcher whose ERA has exceeded 5.00 twice in the past five years? Behind his 3.24 ERA lies a 3.93 FIP, so don't say you weren't warned.
10. RP Javier Lopez
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Why must closers get all the love?
Middle relief pitchers do the same work as their more appreciated counterparts operating during the ninth inning, but the dollar signs follow the saves. With that in mind, shelling out big bucks for Fernando Rodney or Grant Balfour is a dangerous endeavor that will highly disappoint.
Instead, organizations should search for the most productive relievers regardless of when they approach the mound. While Javier Lopez is not this year's Koji Uehara, he's a significant left-handed reliever out of the San Francisco Giants' bullpen.
Last season Lopez posted a 1.83 ERA for the Giants, and his 8.47 strikeouts and 2.75 walks per nine innings both represent career highs. Owning a superb 57.5 ground-ball rate throughout his career, Lopez could transform into an elite option if his strikeouts stick.
Part of the increase is due to his newfound reliance on his curveball, which he used 11.0 percent of the time, opposed to his 4.7 career average. Brooks Baseball calculated that he earned a 36.48 swinging strike percentage when implementing the pitch.
He is more of a lefty specialist, as southpaws hit .152/.208/.222 against him last season. A 36-year-old used in specific situations will not attract a huge deal, which is why the Giants should lock him down with a reasonable, short-term extension.
9. RP Oliver Perez
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One more lefty reliever, and then we'll move on. I promise.
Chances are Oliver Perez's picture caused some readers, especially of the New York Mets fan variety, to spit out their beverage in shock and/or disgust. If that popular reaction holds true throughout the league, the Seattle Mariners should snatch him at a discount.
First, let's acknowledge the bad from Perez. Once upon a time an ace in the making after a marvelous 2004 campaign, Perez spiraled out of control. The collapse was highlighted in 2009 and 2010, when he walked 100 batters through 112 combined innings.
Even as a reliever last season, Ollie still surrendered 26 free passes during 53 innings. An erratic pitcher plus a 3.74 ERA and 1.43 WHIP equals a reliever not worth our time. Look again.
Perez tallied 74 strikeouts last season, which is an immense weapon for any team needing to escape from a jam in the later innings. He also suffered from extreme misfortune on batted balls, amassing a .361 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) that will surely dip to a more reasonable level.
When that happens, his ERA should decrease closer to his 3.26 FIP. The Mariners dusted off damaged goods and helped recover some of his depreciated value. It'd be a shame if another squad reaped the maximum rewards from Perez's revival.
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8. LF David Murphy
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The Texas Rangers have many offensive holes to fill during the offseason, but they should stay in-house and retain David Murphy in left field.
Finally poised for a larger role in Texas, Murphy stumbled with a .220/.282/.374 slash line, likely costing himself millions in the process. If he earned just $5.8 million in arbitration after a .304/.380/.479 line during his 2011 campaign, what will significantly lower marks get him?
The major discrepancy between the last two years can be explained by the polarizing BABIPs. In 2011, he received some fortuitous hops with a .333 BABIP. He paid, however, for that friendly tally with a .227 rate last season.
While the .333 average is far too high, his career rate strays much closer to the peak than valley at .303. His .275 career batting average supports that his poor 2012 was more fluky than his successful 2011.
If his offensive production returns to past means, his 10.8 Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) supports him as a complete player with a glove to match his bat.
The Rangers have the financial resources to chase this class' top hitters, but signing Murphy will not hamper them from seeking a big name elsewhere. In fact, keeping Murphy in Texas on a team-friendly deal will help them pursue more luxurious options at first base or left field.
7. SP Scott Kazmir
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This list should have come with a warning label for Mets fans. Along with Perez, lefty Scott Kazmir salvaged his career last season.
Like Perez, Kamir's surface stats don't share the full story. His 4.04 ERA and 1.32 WHIP are solid considering his career's prior downhill spiral, but it doesn't earn him inclusion on top of every list ranking the premier free agents.
That honor is instead more frequently bestowed to teammate Ubaldo Jimenez, who also revived his career with the Cleveland Indians last season. Boasting a 3.30 ERA (1.82 after the All-Star break) and 9.56 K/9 ratio, Jimenez transformed an inevitable one-year deal loaded with incentives into a monster payday.
Which is why Cleveland should forego retaining Jimenez to instead tie down Kazmir at a cheaper cost.
Kazmir also struck out more than a batter per inning with 162 punchouts through 158 frames, but he displayed more control with a career-low 2.69 BB/9 rate. Jimenez, on the other hand, registered a 3.94 BB/9 that should remind suitors of his notorious wildness around the strike zone.
Having yet to log more than 200 innings in a season since 2007, Kazmir's health concerns will slash his market value, but his increased velocity and 3.51 FIP merit a rare low-risk, high-reward deal.
6. 2B Omar Infante
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Anybody looks inferior when lined up next to Robinson Cano, so Omar Infante is relegated to consolation prize status this winter.
Infante is hardly a star, but he's sneakily a top-10 second baseman. Over the last three years, his 8.1 total WAR ranks 10th at the position. Oddly enough, he is offensively the exact player the sabermetrics devalue.
Infante has hit .288 during that three-year window, but his 4.4 percent walk rate has led him to a mediocre .318 on-base percentage. Touting double-digit homers in each of the past two seasons, his power is good enough at second but hardly spectacular.
Yet his contact and excellent defense makes his a plus option that the Detroit Tigers should maintain. Averaging a 6.1 UZR throughout the past three years, he'd form a stupendous double-play combination with shortstop Jose Iglesias.
Considering the guys occupying the corner infield spots, they can use all of the defensive help they can get.
The Tigers might eye Cano out of the corner of their eye, but Max Scherzer should become the team's seventh player earning at least $12 million once his arbitration is settled. If they want to keep him for 2015, he'll likely to have become their fourth man to net at least $20 million per year.
After Cano, any other second baseman signals a downgrade that a champion hopeful won't want to endure. Marco Scutaro's three-year, $20 million deal from last year offers a parallel for the vicinity of Infante's expected haul.
5. SP Ricky Nolasco
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The Los Angeles Dodgers have deep pockets and two open spots at the back end of their rotation. Trading for Ricky Nolasco last season proved successful, so why not keep the underrated hurler around?
Following his breakout 2008 campaign, Nolasco has since played the part of a tease whose surface numbers never match his strong peripherals. From 2009-11, his ERA crawled above 4.50 each time despite never posting a FIP above 4.00.
He finally received some relief last season, procuring a 3.70 ERA and 1.21 WHIP alongside a 3.34 FIP. He also stopped a plummeting strikeout rate from sinking even further, upping his K/9 ratio from 5.89 in 2012 to 7.45 in 2013. As usual, he displayed exquisite control with a 2.09 BB/9 rate.
Susceptible to the long ball, Dodger Stadium is a good place for Nolasco to work half of his starts. Nolasco should want to stay with the Dodgers, and the Dodgers would want to keep him in town.
But plenty of competition is mounting for Nolasco's services. According to Yahoo! Sports' Jeff Passan, Nolasco has multiple four-year offers on the table. That's risky for any 30-year-old starter, but Nolasco is actually somewhat safe compared to Ervin Santana and Ubaldo Jimenez.
The Dodgers must be in tune to sabermetrics, otherwise they would never have paid Zack Greinke—who posted a 3.83 ERA through three seasons prior to a $147 million contract—such a colossal deal last year. Now would be an odd time for them to start pinching pennies.
4. 1B Mike Napoli
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Nearly half of Boston's championship lineup could convert its World Series glory into a massive contract elsewhere. Not all of those four free-agent position players will remain in Boston, but Mike Napoli is the No. 1 bet to stay.
Ellsbury, of course, is the most valuable option, but he's also by far the most expensive. After achieving so much success through landing mid-level stalwarts, the Red Sox might not want to match the asking price.
Xander Bogaerts' emergence will cause Stephen Drew's departure, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia's .372 BABIP is bound to cause someone to overpay. Mike Napoli, on the other hand, proved that his value is not attached to catching.
Forced to shift to first base with knee issues, Napoli hit .259/.360/.482 while staying on the field for 139 games. But more surprising than his strong bat was his Gold Glove-caliber defense, as Napoli generated a 9.7 UZR at first.
There are several red flags lurking. Like Saltalamacchia, an inflated .367 BABIP hid his ghastly 32.4 strikeout percentage. It wouldn't be surprising in the least if he hit .230 next season, but anyone would gladly settle for his career .259 mark.
Unlike his teammate, Napoli also offers more consistent power, working on six straight seasons with at least 20 dingers. He has never logged more than 140 games played, but the rigors of catching along with Mike Scioscia's crazed reluctance to play him deserves a portion of the blame.
If a mystery team jumps out to give him four or five years, then the Red Sox should move on. But for two or three years, they should keep Napoli's big bat (and now glove if that proves more than a freak occurence) around.
3. SP Hiroki Kuroda
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With the rest of the New York Yankees' rotation in doubt, they need Hiroki Kuroda to guide the way as their sturdy rock.
Phil Hughes punched his ticket out of New York with a 5.19 ERA while the normally sturdy CC Sabathia fell apart during the second half. Andy Pettitte finished the season strong, but the 41-year-old then announced his retirement.
Kuroda, meanwhile, provided a near carbon copy of his first season, registering a 3.31 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. So much for him falling apart in Yankee Stadium.
He won't compile an array of strikeouts, but his impeccable control propels him to ace consideration. If the Yankees want to avoid missing the playoffs for an unprecedented second straight season, they need to keep Kuroda on board.
As of now, the Bronx Bombers are relying on a returning Michael Pineda, David Phelps and Adam Warren to join Sabathia and Ivan Nova in their starting five. That has the potential to develop into a competent unit if everything pans out, but Sabathia's regression and Pineda's health create a cloud of uncertainty.
This time around, Kuroda does not have to settle for a one-year deal. He can pull two years out of the Yankees, who can't afford to watch him leave.
2. SP A.J. Burnett
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After finally breaking a 20-year playoff drought, the Pittsburgh Pirates will look to keep pace with the NL's top contenders. That feat will be difficult to obtain in 2014 without A.J. Burnett.
Regression finally caught up to Jeff Locke, and nobody can say for sure that this Francisco Liriano will stick around. Jameson Taillon will join Gerrit Cole in Pittsburgh's rotation one day, but don't expect him to debut in April.
In order to preserve the club's positive vibes, Burnett needs to keep anchoring a rotation that helped tally baseball's third-best team ERA. It sounds like Pittsburgh's biggest competitor is Burnett's couch.
Despite coming off an exceptional season where he posted a 3.30 ERA, Burnett's agent told the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review's Travis Sawchik and Rob Biertempfel that the pitcher "remains undecided" about whether he will retire or keep pitching.
Should he stay, Pittsburgh looks like the most logical destination. Since the Yankees jettisoned the struggling starter, Burnett has walked just 7.8 percent of his batters faced with the Pirates, down from his 9.7 percent clip in the Big Apple.
The Pirates have the talent to silence skeptics decrying 2013 as an aberration, but they'd endure a substantial setback without Burnett leading the pitching staff next season.
1. 2B Robinson Cano
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Undoubtedly the best free agent set to test the open market, Robinson Cano's departure would create a seismic shift in the Yankees' future plans.
Already trotting out a makeshift offense hamstrung by injuries, they ranked 23rd with a .306 team on-base percentage in 2013. They can't count on a renaissance season from Derek Jeter, and Mark Teixeira's bat was deteriorating before his season-ending wrist injury. Curtis Granderson is looking around the league for a new employer, and Alex Rodriguez will sit out a suspension if his appeal does not prevail.
Without much talent cultivating through the farm system, the Yankees will likely replenish a roster of highly priced veterans with a new batch of highly priced veterans through free agency. If that haul does not include Cano, they'll have a lot of explaining to do to their impatient fanbase.
Giving $200 million, let alone the suggested $300 million, to any 31-year-old is a risky maneuver, but if there's somebody who deserves that prize, it's Cano. A model of consistency, Cano has missed all of 14 games through the past seven seasons, never playing fewer than 159 games in that time frame.
Through the past five campaigns, his batting average has exceeded .300 each time while his slugging percentage has exceeded .500. Despite complaints of his lackadaisical play on the field, he has also morphed into a plus defender.
Even with their goal to lower the payroll to $189 million, the Yankees are still pursuing several top free agents with many big contracts exiting the books. If the alternative is overpaying for Infante, the Yankees need to pay up for Cano.
Otherwise, another idle October is likely on the horizon.
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