NFL Week 11 Picks: Sucker Bets That Must Be Avoided

The NFL is a tough league to predict since essentially anything can happen in any given week, but there are always a few games on the schedule that seem obvious. Unfortunately for those who enjoy betting on football, the obvious outcome rarely seems to come to fruition.

This week's schedule is absolutely stacked with big games, so there is no doubt that there will be plenty of gambling. Bettors generally like to have action on the week's most important games, but that may bode well for those who are taking the bets in Week 11 since there are some tricky lines in place.

Here are three sucker bets that the majority of bettors are likely to make, but you should avoid them at all costs.

Away Team	Home Team	Spread	Pick ATS
Atlanta Falcons	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	PK	TB
New York Jets	Buffalo Bills	NYJ (-1)	NYJ
Detroit Lions	Pittsburgh Steelers	DET (-2.5)	DET
Washington Redskins	Philadelphia Eagles	PHI (-4.5)	WAS
Baltimore Ravens	Chicago Bears	CHI (-3)	BAL
Cleveland Browns	Cincinnati Bengals	CIN (-6.5)	CIN
Oakland Raiders	Houston Texans	HOU (-9)	OAK
Arizona Cardinals	Jacksonville Jaguars	ARI (-9)	JAC
San Diego Chargers	Miami Dolphins	SD (-1.5)	SD
Minnesota Vikings	Seattle Seahawks	SEA (-12.5)	SEA
San Francisco 49ers	New Orleans Saints	NO (-3)	NO
Green Bay Packers	New York Giants	NYG (-4)	NYG
Kansas City Chiefs	Denver Broncos	DEN (-8.5)	DEN
New England Patriots	Carolina Panthers	CAR (-2.5)	CAR

New England Patriots (+2.5 @ CAR)

The New England Patriots have had their fair share of issues this season, but they have persevered to the tune of a 7-2 start. It almost seems as though the Pats excel on a yearly basis regardless of what hardships they experience simply because they're the Patriots.

With that said, the Pats are far from immortal. They have had trouble with tough defensive teams such as the Cincinnati Bengals and New York Jets, and they'll face that type of team in Week 11 when they take on the Carolina Panthers.

Although the Panthers stumbled a bit out of the gates, they are certainly starting to hit their stride. Carolina outlasted the San Francisco 49ers in a defensive slugfest last week, and it has established itself as a contender in the NFC. Even so, it's tough for bettors to ignore the mystique of the Patriots. They have been the premier team in the NFL for more than a decade, and they have been especially good down the stretch in recent years, according to ESPN Stats & Info.

New England's 11-0 road record since 2010 is incredible, but it's due for a blemish. The Panthers are in the top five against both the run and the pass defensively, and they can score enough with Cam Newton under center.

Most bettors probably view the 2.5 points that New England is getting as a gift since the Patriots could win this game outright, but the Panthers are for real, and they're favored for a reason.

Kansas City Chiefs (+8.5 @ DEN)

On the surface it seems crazy that a 9-0 team is an 8.5-point underdog, but that will be the case when the Kansas City Chiefs face the Denver Broncos on Sunday. KC deserves a ton of credit for starting 9-0; however, it's no secret that the schedule has been favorable.

The Chiefs haven't played a team that is currently above .500 all season long, and the amount of luck that they have had in terms of opposing quarterbacks is incredible, according to Rich Eisen of NFL Network.

The Chiefs defense is no joke, but facing low-level passers makes life much easier. Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning is anything but low-level as it can be argued that he's the greatest signal-caller in NFL history. He has certainly played like it this season as the Broncos are on a record-setting pace offensively, and Manning is well on his way to yet another MVP Award. Kansas City's defense is good, but that is irrelevant when it comes to Manning.

Not only is Manning great, but he also has the best arsenal of weapons in football with Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Wes Welker, Julius Thomas and Knowshon Moreno all playing at a high level. The Chiefs will have to pick their poison, and no matter how you look at it, somebody is going to do some damage against them. It's understandable why there is a desire to take the points here; however, the Chiefs are long overdue for a rude awakening.

Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5 vs. WAS)

The Philadelphia Eagles were the talk of the NFL after Chip Kelly's innovative offense rolled up 33 points on the Washington Redskins in Week 1, but an ensuing three-game losing streak caused observers to sour on them.

Philly has won its past two games and four of its last six, though, and it is now tied for first in the NFC East with the Dallas Cowboys. That division has been an enigma this season, but the Eagles are suddenly in control.

They will face the Redskins for the second time this season in Week 11, and Washington's stock is quite low after losing to the Minnesota Vikings last week. The Redskins are just 3-6, but a win would actually move them to within a half game of Philadelphia in the standings.

The Redskins have some obvious issues on both sides of the ball; however, it is largely the same team that won the division last year. Quarterback Robert Griffin III hasn't been the same, though, and he is receiving a great deal of criticism, according to SportsCenter.

Questioning Griffin's leadership ability seems a bit off base after what he accomplished last season as a rookie. His 2013 campaign didn't get off to the start he hoped it would as he was working his way back from a significant knee injury, but he has settled in as of late.

The main issue is Washington's defense. If the Redskins defense can even put forth a competent effort, though, the Redskins will be competitive on Sunday. Based on the struggles Philly has experienced in its own right this season, laying 4.5 points seems like a little too much.

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