Week 11 NFL Picks: Breaking Down Biggest Locks Against the Spread

The NFL schedule tends to be a mixed bag in any given week, as some games look like mismatches on paper while others seem as though they can go either way.

The Week 11 slate has very few games in the former category, though, and that should make for some interesting betting strategies.

With so much parity in the NFL right now, there really aren't that many dominant teams. Because of that, it's only natural that there are plenty of evenly matched encounters on tap. With that said, there are underlying factors in every game that give one team a slight advantage over the other.

Here are the three biggest locks against the spread in Week 11 that are sure to line your pockets if you choose to bet on them.

Away Team	Home Team	Spread	Pick ATS
Atlanta Falcons	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	PK	TB
New York Jets	Buffalo Bills	BUF (-1)	NYJ
Detroit Lions	Pittsburgh Steelers	DET (-2.5)	DET
Washington Redskins	Philadelphia Eagles	PHI (-4.5)	WAS
Baltimore Ravens	Chicago Bears	CHI (-3)	BAL
Cleveland Browns	Cincinnati Bengals	CIN (-6.5)	CIN
Oakland Raiders	Houston Texans	HOU (-7)	OAK
Arizona Cardinals	Jacksonville Jaguars	ARI (-8.5)	JAC
San Diego Chargers	Miami Dolphins	SD (-1.5)	SD
Minnesota Vikings	Seattle Seahawks	SEA (-12.5)	SEA
San Francisco 49ers	New Orleans Saints	NO (-3)	NO
Green Bay Packers	New York Giants	NYG (-4.5)	NYG
Kansas City Chiefs	Denver Broncos	DEN (-8.5)	DEN
New England Patriots	Carolina Panthers	CAR (-2.5)	CAR

Baltimore Ravens (+3 @ Chicago Bears)

At first glance, there is no question that the Baltimore Ravens are plagued by a multitude of problems. The running game has been virtually nonexistent, quarterback Joe Flacco has been inconsistent and the defense hasn't been as dominant since transitioning from the Ray Lewis era.

Even so, the Ravens are 4-5 and very much in the thick of the AFC wild-card race. Winning on the road against the Chicago Bears won't be easy, but there is reason to believe that Baltimore can get the job done.

The Ravens are coming off a huge win over the division rival Cincinnati Bengals, so they have plenty of momentum to build upon. Also, while the Bears are talented, they will be without quarterback Jay Cutler. The Bears simply aren't the same when Cutler is out of the lineup, and that bodes well for Baltimore.

If Baltimore is going to win, though, it needs to improve its ground game. Ray Rice has had a miserable season, but the Ravens' official Twitter account reveals that he believes he can turn things around:

Chicago is allowing nearly 130 rushing yards per game, which puts the Bears at No. 31 overall in the league. Running the ball on offense is Baltimore's identity, and that identity could very well return this week.

Above all else, the fact that the Ravens are three-point underdogs against quarterback Josh McCown seems out of whack.

Baltimore may not be the same team that won the Super Bowl last season, but this is a game that it can and should win.

New Orleans Saints (-3 vs. San Francisco 49ers)

When the New Orleans Saints host the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday, it very well could be a preview of the NFC Championship Game.

At the same time, though, the Niners have had their issues this season. San Francisco is still dominant on the defensive side of the ball. However, scoring with consistency has been an issue. Much of that is due to quarterback Colin Kaepernick's dip in proficiency when faced with a strong pass rush, as noted by Pro Football Focus.

The Saints have actually been far more successful at getting to the quarterback this season than the 49ers, which could spell trouble for Kaepernick. New Orleans is tied for eighth in the league with 29 sacks, while the Niners are tied for 24th with 20.

Saints quarterback Drew Brees has been known to eat opposing defenses alive if they allow him to exist in the pocket untouched, so San Francisco desperately needs to generate some pressure.

Even if the 49ers hold the Saints offense somewhat in check, though, there is no guarantee that they'll be able to score in their own right. Kaepernick has been extremely inconsistent and the Niners have relied heavily upon running back Frank Gore.

The Saints can be run on, but they've gone from having one of the worst defenses in football last season to one of the best this year.

With the added advantage of playing in the Superdome, the Saints should take this one by more than three.

New York Jets (+1 @ Buffalo Bills)

Few teams are tougher to figure out than the New York Jets this season.

They have seemingly performed well beyond their means with a record of 5-4 and wins over teams such as the Saints and New England Patriots.

At the same time, they've endured some brutal losses as well. The Jets have already beaten the Buffalo Bills this season. However, the Bills tend to play much better at home than they do on the road.

New York is actually a one-point underdog against the 3-7 Bills, but that may very well be a mistake on the oddsmakers' part.

The biggest matchup to watch is Buffalo's offense against New York's defense. The Bills love to pound the rock with C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson, but the Jets are very difficult to run on, as they are first in the league in rushing yards allowed per game and yards per carry against.

That could force the Bills to lean on rookie quarterback EJ Manuel, but the Bills' official Twitter account reported that he will be forced to operate without his top two receivers:

That means there will be a ton of pressure on Buffalo's defense to keep New York off the scoreboard. Jets rookie quarterback Geno Smith has struggled in recent weeks, but he threw for a season-high 331 yards against Buffalo earlier in the season.

Also, the Bills were crushed by New York's running game, which bodes well for Chris Ivory.

It seems as though the Jets' bubble could burst at any moment, but it won't happen against the Bills.

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