Transfer Scout: Why Robin Knoche Has a Higher Upside Than Mats Hummels

Borussia Dortmund centre-back Mats Hummels, 24, has been compared to Franz Beckenbauer, but 21-year-old Wolfsburg centre-back Robin Knoche has the potential to surpass Hummels. 

Hummels Isn't All That

Hummels' performances have linked him with transfers to major European clubs such as Barcelona, per Sky Sports, and Manchester United, per Manchester Evening News. His name has become so recognisable that media outlets will continue to throw his name into the rumour mill even though he has extended his contract not once but twice in two years. 

You want the second coming of Beckenbauer at your club, right? 

Are you willing to accept unfathomable mistakes occurring at regular intervals? 

Germany have conceded six goals in Hummels' last two starts. Last May, he and Per Mertesacker led a German back line which let in five goals against Switzerland.

"It's clear that we didn't concentrate enough and made a lot of mistakes," Joachim Loew said, via AFP.

When Germany were beaten 2-1 by Italy in the Euro 2012 semi-finals, if not for Hummels' missed tackle on Antonio Cassano, Mario Balotelli would not have opened the scoring. 

Despite dropping Hummels, Loew still believes the Dortmund centre-back is "outstanding" but said, via Stephan Uersfeld at ESPN FC, that he "needs to adjust a few details for the national team."

It was an inference to Hummels' propensity to lose focus in games. 

This was evident in last season's 4-1 UEFA Champions League semi-final first-leg win over Real Madrid. What was supposed to be a routine clearance eventuated in Hummels inadvertently passing the ball to Gonzalo Higuain, who squared the ball to Cristiano Ronaldo for an away goal.

In the 2-0 loss to Borussia Monchengladbach, Hummels charged out, failed to win the ball from Havard Nordtveit, who made a pass to Raffael. The Brazilian took Neven Subotic, covering for Hummels, out of position, and passed it to Max Kruse. Kruse slid a through-ball to Nordtveit, who was brought down from behind by Hummels.

Why did Hummels make such a rash, high-risk and low-IQ challenge? He was overcompensating for his earlier missed tackle. He conceded a penalty in the 82nd minute, which Kruse converted, and was sent off. 

Game over for Dortmund. 

Yes, Hummels has won back possession 52 times in 10 league games this season, but he has been caught out on multiple occasions.

This is why Kicker magazine gave higher performance ratings to Sokratis and Subotic.

Knoche the Rising Star

Last season, Knoche started 50 percent of his league games in midfield, as Naldo, Simon Kjaer, Emanuel Pogatetz and Alexander Madlung were all vying for the two centre-back positions.

Wolfsburg conceded 52 goals in 34 games that season and had the 11th-worst defensive record in the Bundesliga. 

It was a learning curve for Knoche, who infamously received two yellow cards in the space of 14 minutes from referee Wolfgang Stark in a 4-0 defeat to Hannover 96 (it was the same game in which Szabolcs Huszti registered four assists). 

Now with Knoche a starting centre-back partnering veteran Naldo, Wolfsburg have the third-best defensive record (tied with Bayer Leverkusen) in the league behind Bayern Munich and Dortmund.

Going into the game against Wolfsburg, Bayern had scored 11 goals in their last three games, but only scored once past the Knoche-Naldo pairing. 

Dortmund leads the Bundesliga in goals per game (2.7), but they were stifled by the aforementioned pairing in a 2-1 defeat to Wolfsburg. 

While Naldo's experience in helping Knoche out is invaluable, it is not a case of Naldo holding Knoche's hand throughout games and shielding him from danger. 

Knoche and Hummels are two different types of centre-backs. 

Hummels is a go-getter, bolting into midfield to make tackles, intercepting passes and being proactive in his approach to defending. Knoche is more cautious (he's yet to receive a yellow card in league play this season), positions himself expertly and will sweep up errant passes into the box. 

The one similarity both share composure in possession. 

Who is the better passer? Going by reputation, it is Hummels. However from an objective perspective, it is Knoche. 

LEAGUE ONLY	Hummels	Knoche
Pass Completion %	81.7	85.5
Long Pass Completion %	65.1	73.8
Passes Per Game	64	51
Long Passes Per Game	7.1	6.6
Average Pass Length (Metres)	23 m	24 m

Like his defending, Hummels is so confident in his passing range that he will attempt what you would define as "Hail Mary" passes. Meanwhile, Knoche can dictate play from the back like Hummels and is a more efficient passer. 

Hummels' displays in the last 12-18 months have been mediocre at best and abject at worst. 

This is why Knoche, who is keeping highly rated Swiss centre-back Timm Klose on the bench, not only has the higher upside than Hummels but could be a better centre-back in a few years' time. 

Statistics via WhoScored, FFT Stats Zone, Squawka and Transfermarkt
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