Bowl Projections 2013: Latest Outlook for BCS Games Following Week 11
The No. 2 Oregon Ducks fell to the Stanford Cardinal on Thursday to ensure the top of the new BCS rankings (and my bowl projections) will look a bit different.
The Ducks' failure is the start of the annual process of losses by top teams to help add a little clarity to the national championship picture.
There is still some sorting left to be done.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Alabama, Florida State, Ohio State and Baylor are all sitting undefeated, and each would be a little grumpy if they stayed unblemished and were denied a shot at playing for the title. Alas, only two can play for the title until next year's four-team playoff.
I have Alabama and Florida State as the lucky two in this year's BCS title game.
Check out my projections for each BCS bowl game, and then I'll delve a little further into three of the matchups.
| Rose Bowl | Jan. 1 | Pasadena, Calif. | Big Ten/BCS vs. Pac-12/BCS | Ohio State vs. Stanford |
| Fiesta Bowl | Jan. 1 | Glendale, Ariz. | Big 12/BCS vs. BCS | Baylor vs. Fresno State |
| Sugar Bowl | Jan. 2 | New Orleans, La. | SEC/BCS vs. BCS | Texas A&M vs. UCF |
| Orange Bowl | Jan. 3 | Miami, Fla. | ACC/BCS vs. BCS | Clemson vs. Michigan State |
| BCS Title Game | Jan. 6 | Pasadena, Calif. | BCS No. 1 vs. BCS No. 2 | Alabama vs. Florida State |
| 1 | Alabama | 9-0 | SEC | 1 |
| 2 | Florida State | 9-0 | ACC | 2 |
| 3 | Ohio State | 9-0 | Big Ten | 4 |
| 4 | Stanford | 8-1 | Pac-12 | 5 |
| 5 | Baylor | 8-0 | Big 12 | 6 |
| 6 | Oregon | 8-1 | Pac-12 | 3 |
| 7 | Clemson | 8-1 | ACC | 7 |
| 8 | Missouri | 9-1 | SEC | 8 |
| 9 | Auburn | 9-1 | SEC | 9 |
| 10 | South Carolina | 7-2 | SEC | 12 |
| 11 | Oklahoma State | 8-1 | Big 12 | 14 |
| 12 | Texas A&M | 8-2 | SEC | 15 |
| 13 | Oklahoma | 7-2 | Big 12 | 10 |
| 14 | Michigan State | 8-1 | Big Ten | 17 |
| 15 | Fresno State | 9-0 | MWC | 16 |
| 16 | UCLA | 7-2 | Pac-12 | 19 |
| 17 | Louisville | 8-1 | AAC | 20 |
| 18 | Northern Illinois | 9-0 | MAC | 18 |
| 19 | Central Florida | 7-1 | AAC | 21 |
| 20 | Miami (Fla.) | 7-2 | ACC | 11 |
| 21 | Arizona State | 7-2 | Pac-12 | 22 |
| 22 | LSU | 7-3 | SEC | 13 |
| 23 | Georgia | 6-3 | SEC | NR |
| 24 | Wisconsin | 7-2 | Big Ten | 24 |
| 25 | Texas | 7-2 | Big 12 | NR |
Sugar Bowl
Texas A&M vs. UCF
Texas A&M is going to sneak into a BCS game ahead of teams with better records. It isn't going to be all due to the strength of the Aggies' SEC schedule, either.
In fact, the way I see things playing out, I have the SEC Championship Game loser getting bypassed for a BCS game in favor of a team led by reigning Heisman winner Johnny Manziel.
That last part is the key. Manziel is a cash cow. The polarizing quarterback is going to raise interest in whichever bowl game he plays in, and interest means money for these bowls.
On Saturday, the Aggies authored another high-scoring and entertaining game with a 51-41 win over Mississippi State. Now they will face a huge stretch in the schedule with games against No. 13 LSU and No. 8 Missouri.
Given their win on Saturday and the quality of the next two opponents, if the Aggies win one of those two, I expect them to finish the year in the top 14 of the BCS rankings, which they need to be eligible for a BCS bowl.
As long as they are eligible, Manziel and his teammates will be selected.
As for Central Florida, it has the inside track for the AAC's automatic bid. With victories over Louisville and then Houston this Saturday, UCF has victories over the two teams chasing them in the standings.
Orange Bowl
Clemson vs. Oregon
Well, the projections for the Orange Bowl certainly changed on Thursday night. Florida State is in great position to make the championship game, which opens the door for Clemson.
The No. 7 Tigers have just one loss on the season and just one game against a ranked opponent left on the schedule. That is a Nov. 30 showdown with South Carolina.
However, even if the Tigers are nipped by the Gamecocks, they will still almost assuredly be in the top 14, and I expect the Orange Bowl to keep the ACC connection intact by selecting the Tigers.
As for Oregon, playing in the Orange Bowl is not going to get Ducks fans excited. This team was gunning for the championship game, but with Thursday's loss, that dream is all but gone.
Still, Oregon is almost a lock for a BCS game. The Ducks don't have a game left on the schedule against a ranked opponent. The Ducks will be able to run the table, and then offer up the Orange Bowl a high-profile and entertaining team for its showcase.
BCS Title Game
Alabama vs. Florida State
No. 1 Alabama looked fantastic in taking down No. 13 LSU on Saturday night, 38-17. Any future opponents watching that game hoping to pinpoint a weakness in the two-time defending national champions had to have felt a sense of dismay.
The Crimson Tide are a complete team, which is good for them because they still have some challenges on the schedule before reaching the title game.
That includes the Iron Bowl against No. 9 Auburn and then a likely date in the SEC Championship game.
Still, with Alabama holding the high-powered LSU offense to just three points in the second half, this team has shown it has the goods to handle all challengers.
As for Florida State, it would be a small shock if the Seminoles stumbled before reaching the BCS title game.
The Seminoles play Syracuse, Idaho and then sinking Florida to wrap up the regular season, and there isn't a team in the ACC Coastal division that has the firepower to hang with the Seminoles in the ACC Championship Game.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
