Robinson Cano Rumors: Updating Every Suitor's Odds of Landing Star Infielder
Don't ya know, baseball's biggest free agent is Robinson Cano.
The star second baseman can escape John Sterling's cheesy home run calls by fleeing from the New York Yankees. Rarely do premier players leave the Bronx to collect more dough elsewhere, but it's a possibility Cano does just that this winter.
Wherever he signs, Cano will get paid. Yes, he's 31 years old and playing a position where many players don't age well, but he's a bastion of dependency, having missed 14 games over the past seven seasons. Alongside his certificate for stellar attendance, Cano has exceeded a .300 batting average and .500 slugging percentage during each of the past five seasons.
Since 2010, Cano has amassed a 25.4 WAR by FanGrahps' measure, placing him second behind Miguel Cabrera among position players. Some team will certainly empty its pockets to snag Cano. The only questions are who and for how much?
While Cano opened some eyes with his 10-year, $300 million asking price, don't expect him to become the sport's richest player after teams have witnessed Alex Rodriguez and Albert Pujols falter through their mega contracts.
Who will walk out of free agency with the grand prize? CBS Sports' Jon Heyman listed 10 other teams who might try to poach away Cano. Let's take a look at the league's main contenders and handicap their chances of landing Cano.
Note: All payroll information is courtesy of Cot's Baseball Contracts.
Long Shots
1 of 9
New York Mets
Nope, not happening. These are not Omar Minaya's Mets that desperately tried to shatter the little brother persona and emerge from the Yankees' shadows with huge signings. Newsday's Marc Carig eliminated the fantasy of the Mets persuading Cano to switch allegiances to New York's other squad, quoting a source within the team that said, "Other than Cano, I just don't see anybody who you could say 'OK, we're definitely not going to be in play there.'"
Odds: 500-1
Chicago White Sox
They have the resources, but the White Sox are better off addressing their multiple holes at third base, outfield and pitching. Why would a star commit to a rebuilding organization during his prime, and why would a team a ways away from contention spend a fortune on one player who won't carry them to the playoffs alone?
Odds: 150-1
Toronto Blue Jays
Because throwing money at their problems has worked so well before. Even given the Blue Jays' failed spending spree last year, GM Alex Anthopoulos prefers to make his moves through the trade market. Convincing Cano to leave New York for Toronto will be a tough sell.
Odds: 110-1
Texas Rangers
The Texans Rangers seem to be gaining steam as a contender to win the Cano sweepstakes, but the move makes little sense.
They have the financial flexibility, but the Texas Rangers also have Ian Kinsler occupying second base while they try to find a starting role for Jurickson Profar. The Rangers will vie for top pitchers and corner outfielders, but don't expect them to toss more than a feeler Cano's way.
Odds: 90-1
Los Angeles Dodgers
2 of 9
Last offseason, the Los Angeles Dodgers threw caution to the wind when making Zack Greinke MLB's richest pitcher just months after absorbing Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford and Josh Beckett's hefty contracts from the Boston Red Sox.
At the time, Yankees fans panicked at their expanding payroll and hole at second base. Would the Dodgers out-evil the Evil Empire and reel Cano to the darker side?
Take a deep breath. The Dodgers significantly lessened that possibility when signing Cuban defector Alex Guerrero to a four-year, $28 million deal.
Guerrero, who often draws Dan Uggla comparisons in the least insulting way, figures to assume second base for Los Angeles in place of free agent Mark Ellis.
Are the Dodgers crazy enough to go ahead and still make Cano richer than Pujols and Rodriguez? Maybe, but probably not. They could shift Guerrero to shortstop and Hanley Ramirez to third, but that's a lot of work for a team that already has four $20 million players on the book (and a fifth likely on the way in Clayton Kershaw).
Cano and the Dodgers could form the unstoppable faction that their Los Angeles counterparts thought they configured in Anaheim with Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton. Even Magic Johnson and Co., however, don't appear to be that daring.
Odds: 90-1
Chicago Cubs
3 of 9
The Chicago Cubs, whose payroll has exceeded $100 million every season since 2008, are tied down to $49 million before beginning arbitration. They have money to spend and years of futility to erase, and they're a big market with other young building blocks.
Seems like a good fit, no? Well, probably not. The New York Post's Joel Sherman dismissed the Cubs' willingness to make a significant push for Cano. Why not?
Theo Epstein has worked tirelessly to fix Chicago's long-term outlook with an assortment of young talent. Shortstop Javier Baez leads that crop of budding prospects, but the struggling Starlin Castro remains under contract until 2019, so the Cubs can't give up on him just yet. Perhaps one of them moves to second down the line.
With Baez, Kris Bryant, Albert Almora and Jorge Soler brewing in the farm system, the Cubs are hopeful they can form a young, inexpensive lineup that can produce runs along with Castro and first baseman Anthony Rizzo.
From the looks of a report by CSNChicago.com's Tony Andracki, it sounds like Epstein learned his lesson after giving Edwin Jackson a big check last offseason.
"Epstein was "self-critical" on Jackson's signing, admitting the front office got a little impatient but pointed to the lack of quality, young starting pitching available in free agency.
"It's important for us to remember the plan that's in place and to stay focused on building that core," Epstein said. "But if there's an opportunity to acquire an asset at a fair price, we also have to be aggressive and pick our spots."
"
Gathering up $200 million and counting for one player does not constitute picking his spot. Big things are coming for the Cubs, but not with Cano leading the revival.
Odds: 85-1
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Los Angeles Angels
4 of 9
The Los Angeles Angels have to have learned something from their past blunders.
Two years ago, the Angels gave Albert Pujols $240 million, guaranteed money after his retirement and the throne of Asgard to take his talents to Anaheim. That failed spectacularly, as Pujols has posted career lows in all three slash-line categories during both seasons.
So naturally they made the same blunder the following winter by giving Josh Hamilton $125 million. Seems like a smart investment for an injury-prone, drastically on-and-off slugger who spent his best years in Arlington Park's friendly confines.
Already shackled to Pujols, Hamilton, Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson while paying Vernon Wells $18.6 million to play for the Yankees, one would think the Angels would exhibit some inhibitions about traveling down the same path again.
They'll also have to pay Mike Trout down the road, and he could deserve $500 trillion by 2017.
While the Angels already have a solid second baseman in Howie Kendrick, the Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo reported that the Angels are looking to shop him for reinforcements in the rotation.
But don't let that give you the wrong idea; they reportedly want to make room for Grant Green to take control of second.
Odds: 65-1
Baltimore Orioles
5 of 9
Imagine how scary the Baltimore Orioles would look with Robinson Cano in the heart of their batting order.
With Chris Davis' smashing breakthrough, the Orioles led baseball with 212 home runs. Davis, Matt Wieters, J.J. Hardy and Manny Machado already form a prolific infield, but it'd rise to another level if Cano rounded it out.
Brian Roberts, the weak link of the unit, is also a free agent, so Baltimore should use the $10 million relieved from his contract to help pay Cano's hefty asking price. On paper, the move vaults the Orioles to World Series contenders as Cano remains in the American League East to torture his old club.
It also appears highly unlikely that Baltimore will become a serious player in the race for his services. According to MLB.com's Brittany Ghiroli, Cano is not on the team's wish list.
"The Orioles are not in the Robinson Cano $300 million sweepstakes, and they could rely on utility man Ryan Flaherty or Jonathan Schoop, rated the O's No. 4 prospect by MLB.com," Ghiroli said.
Although the Orioles are committed to only $45 million in payroll right now, that mark will soar with Davis, Wieters and Jim Johnson eligible for arbitration. Maybe they'll swoop in if the price lowers, but don't bank on it.
Odds: 60-1
Detroit Tigers
6 of 9
Cano, Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder would look pretty good conjoined in the Detroit Tigers' batting order.
Six Tigers (Cabrera, Fielder, Justin Verlander, Anibal Sanchez, Torii Hunter and Victor Martinez) combine to earn more than $100 million, so offering Cano $25-$30 million a year would be, to put it nicely, a bold financial choice. They also still have to pay Max Scherzer, Doug Fister, Rick Porcello and Austin Jackson, so their payroll is already gigantic.
But this is a team that had a superstar hitter at first base in Cabrera and said, "What the heck? Let's give Fielder $214 million." What's another $300 million?
Even for Mike Ilitch, that's a lot of money to chase a luxury. Detroit finished second behind the Boston Red Sox in on-base percentage, runs scored and slugging percentage last season, so offense is not a glaring need.
Once Fielder turns 30 in May, all of the Tigers' big bats will be 30 or older, so adding another expensive, aging veteran to the mix is not a wise move.
Detroit has been spurned constantly in the postseason, so the front office might feel pressured to make a monumental splash.
Odds: 35-1
Washington Nationals
7 of 9
The Washington Nationals are hungry to win after missing the playoffs in a year where everyone under the sun tabbed them as preseason favorites. They're also big spenders who have recently overpaid for Jayson Werth, Edwin Jackson and Rafael Soriano.
Their fiscal recklessness and desire to erase last year's flop makes them a possibility, but it doesn't make sense for them.
After settling arbitration with Jordan Zimmermann, Stephen Strasburg and Ian Desmond, the Nationals' 2014 payroll will reside north of the 2014 barometer. Enough money might remain in the piggy bank to pursue some free agents, but they're more likely to shift their focus to the starting rotation.
Dan Haren is a free agent, and the Nationals are unlikely to bring him back after a wildly inconsistent 2013 campaign. According to MLB.com's Bill Ladson, Washington is seeking another starter, which could include trying to lure ace David Price away from the Tampa Bay Rays.
Cano represents an upgrade at second base for every MLB team, but the Nationals are just fine letting Anthony Rendon occupy the spot. During his rookie season, the highly regarded Rendon hit .265/.329/.396 in 98 plays while flashing a solid glove.
It makes little sense for them to pay Cano $300 million when an inexpensive 23-year-old is at their disposal, but the Nationals cannot be ruled out due to their aggressive spending tendencies.
Odds: 25-1
Seattle Mariners
8 of 9
The Seattle Mariners have money to spend and two aces anchoring the rotation. They're as well-positioned as anyone else to procure a top position player this offseason.
With their current roster, Jacoby Ellsbury or Shin-Soo Choo would fit much cozier as upgrades for their feeble outfield. They're a bigger player for Ellsbury than Cano, but don't count them out on either front.
Their middle infield contains a talented crop of young players in Nick Franklin and Brad Miller, along with Kyle Seager at third base. But Franklin struck out in 27.3 percent of his plate appearances while Miller notched a .318 on-base percentage, so they might not feel obligated to stick with both of them if Cano looms in reach.
Seattle trailed only Baltimore with 188 homers, but it was an all-or-nothing offense that registered a .306 team on-base percentage. A true professional like Cano would do wonders for the offense consisting of several nice pieces but no building block.
In a payroll cleansing, the Mariners are committed to slightly less than $34 million, which should only increase slightly with Justin Smoak and Michael Saunders serving as their only arbitration-eligible players.
Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma lead the rotation while Danny Hultzen, Taijuan Walker and James Paxton are on their way, so their sights should be set largely on offense.
Brian Cashman should be rooting for Jack Zduriencik to land Ellsbury, Choo or another assortment of pricey outfielders. The Yankees don't want the Mariners to set their sights on signing Cano.
Odds: 12-1
New York Yankees
9 of 9
The Yankees missed the postseason for the second time in 19 years. In the process, two of their most beloved players, Mariano Rivera and Andy Pettitte, retired to further the exodus of their homegrown talent.
Derek Jeter inked a one-year extension, but 2014 might be the captain's swan song season. Losing Cano would provide a devastating blow to a spoiled fanbase used to a lavish lifestyle of winning.
Despite their efforts to lower their payroll to the $189 million threshold, they have money coming off the books with Rivera and Pettitte departing to the couch and Kevin Youkilis leaving for free agency. They'd have to get a little creative elsewhere, especially if they're tied down to Rodriguez, but the money is there to retain Cano.
With Jeter on his last legs, Cano is now the team's clear franchise player. With El Capitan no longer hogging the spotlight, Cano can rake in extra cash off the field by becoming New York's new poster boy.
According to the New York Post's Dan Martin, the Yankees made a preliminary offer of seven years and $160 million during the season. It will take more than that low-ball offer to seal the deal.
They can play frugal now, but Cano should call the Yankees' bluff and strong-arm them to cave into the star's every demand. Cano's new representation knows that the Bronx Bombers will face some major problems (perhaps 99 of them?) without Cano on their roster.
Odds: 2-1
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