Week 10 NFL Picks Against the Spread: Underdogs That Will Cover Your Bet

Week 10 of the NFL season is just around the corner, making this an ideal time to study the opening lines, make predictions and get in some early wagers on the action.

One of the best and most consistent bets in the NFL has been backing the underdog at home, which is generally a winner when the spread is 10 points or more. As of Week 8, the home double-digit ‘dog has covered in 18 of 20 contests dating back to the 2009 campaign, according to OddsShark.com.

While there isn’t a single one of these instant-bet, home run spreads on the board this week, it’s worth keeping an eye out for them in the future and considering fading slightly lesser road favorites.

Let’s take a look at the latest lines for each game, check out my prediction for each one and then highlight a handful of ‘dogs that are almost guaranteed to cover in Week 10.

*Trends courtesy of VegasInsider.com

Away Team	Home Team	Line	Prediction (ATS)
Washington Redskins	Minnesota Vikings	WAS -2.5	WAS
Jacksonville Jaguars	Tennessee Titans	TEN -13.5	JAX
Philadelphia Eagles	Green Bay Packers	GB -10.5	PHI
Buffalo Bills	Pittsburgh Steelers	PIT -4	PIT
Oakland Raiders	New York Giants	NYG – 7	NYG
St. Louis Rams	Indianapolis Colts	IND -12.5	STL
Seattle Seahawks	Atlanta Falcons	SEA -6	SEA
Cincinnati Bengals	Baltimore Ravens	CIN -2	CIN
Detroit Lions	Chicago Bears	DET -3	DET
Carolina Panthers	San Francisco 49ers	SF -6	CAR
Houston Texans	Arizona Cardinals	ARI -3	ARI
Denver Broncos	San Diego Chargers	DEN -7	SD
Dallas Cowboys	New Orleans Saints	NO -6.5	DAL
Miami Dolphins	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	MIA -3	MIA

St. Louis Rams (+12.5) over Indianapolis Colts

The Rams haven’t been as bad as expected in the Kellen Clemens era, covering the spread against a tough Seattle Seahawks squad in Week 8 and nearly winning that game. They also nearly beat the Tennessee Titans on Sunday on a last-second touchdown try.

While the Rams weren't fortunate enough to win either on a last-minute heave, they have certainly proved to be competitive and well-balanced without Sam Bradford under center. Rookie rush Zac Stacy is a bona fide emerging star, tearing up the Titans' and Seahawks' fronts in back-to-back games for a total of 261 rushing yards and two scores.

Add in a defense that is opportunistic and stout against the pass, and you have the recipe for not only a close game but a potential upset over the Colts in Week 10. Indianapolis just barely scraped by the Houston Texans on Sunday Night Football, needing a huge comeback in the second half to win the game.

The Rams defense likely won’t roll over and allow quarterback Andrew Luck to pick it apart with surgical precision, and the offense shouldn’t sputter if it gains a big lead due to Stacy’s ability to pound the rock and move the chains.

Take the ‘dog here and watch as the Rams are in position to win this one in the final minutes. They'll easily cover the spread and cash tickets for backers.

San Diego Chargers (-7) over Denver Broncos

The Chargers play host to the Broncos in a critical game for each team. While the Broncos are coming off a Week 9 bye and should be more rested, the Chargers have more to lose after dropping an overtime heartbreaker to the Washington Redskins.

The Bolts need this one more and have had an ample amount of time to prepare for Peyton Manning and his high-powered offense in a game that they can’t afford to lose. At .500, the Chargers are in position to make a playoff run for the first time since 2009.

Unfortunately, the division looks out of reach with both the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs and elite Broncos vying for the AFC West crown. That means a wild-card appearance should be the goal, and the Chargers cannot afford to fall to 4-5 and still accomplish that mission in a competitive AFC.

With that in mind, you can reasonably expect San Diego head coach Mike McCoy to empty out his playbook and throw the kitchen sink against his former team this week.

Denver’s former offensive coordinator has been doing well in Southern California and treating bettors especially well. The Bolts are 5-2-1 against the spread and 3-0 when playing at Qualcomm Stadium.

With the home crowd behind him, quarterback Philip Rivers has been one of the league’s best quarterbacks. He has a number of weapons, including emerging rookie receiver Keenan Allen. They should be able to hook up for a number of scores and keep pace with the lightning-quick offense that Denver employs.

As long as the Bolts can weather the offensive storm and force at least two key turnovers during the game, they should be in prime position to win this one and keep their home ATS record pristine.

Dallas Cowboys (+6.5) over New Orleans Saints

The ‘Boys are the best team in the league against the spread, covering in seven out of the nine contests they have been involved with this year.

While New Orleans has been perfect ATS at the Superdome—going 4-0 in games played there—the Saints could be on the verge of suffering their first loss in Louisiana this season.

Dallas is one of the most intriguing teams in the NFL. It is capable of exploding on offense for big gains and quick scores while also prone to collapsing and going long stretches without moving the chains.

Fortunately, the Cowboys possess one of the most opportunistic defenses in the league, and that will make the difference against New Orleans. Through nine games, the ‘Boys have generated 21 turnovers—second most in the league—while only giving up the rock 11 times.

That turnover margin of 10 is just behind the Kansas City Chiefs' for best in the league. It is a large reason why Dallas is in position to capture the NFC East and make the playoffs in 2013.

A win over the Saints—losers of two of their last three contests—would go a long way toward convincing doubters that this team is legit.

Considering Drew Brees and Co. just dropped a game to the wildly inconsistent New York Jets, they may be suffering a midseason slump and look vulnerable heading into this upcoming contest.

Stay away from the home favorite and back the ‘dog in this one, as the Cowboys look to be the better squad heading into Week 10.