Betting Preview: Manchester United v. Barcelona (Champions League Final)

Manchester United v Barcelona, Champions League Final, May 27, 2009

It simply does not get any more mouth-watering than this. The two best teams in European football meet head-to-head on Wednesday night in Rome, delivering a showpiece Champions League final that will have the whole world glued to their TV screens. Which of United’s brand of counter-attacking football based on a miserly backline, or the Catalans’ methodical, patient build-up play, will reign supreme?

Boldly predicting which side has the pre-match edge is no easy task. The bookies, usually the best barometer in such matters, have Manchester United as slight favourite at 13/8, with Barcelona paying out a fraction more priced at 7/4. The draw, and the threat of extra-time and penalties, is temptingly priced at 9/4.

The suggestion that the Mancunians have the slightest of advantages is a conclusion borne from Barca’s own deficiencies heading into the match. The Catalans have long struggled to convince onlookers that they defence is water-tight, and without the services of both first-choice full-backs, Daniel Alves and Eric Abidal both being suspended, the feeling that United can score in the final has been given that extra boost.

In the absence of Alves and Abidal, the rumour-mill is predicting that midfielders Seydou Keita and Yaya Toure will step into the holes at the back. The fear for the Spaniards will be that these square-pegs in the round holes will be exposed by United’s vast array of attacking talents. And the concerns do not stop there for Pep, as two of his most influential creative attackers - Andres Iniesta and Thierry Henry - are both struggling to make the final after suffering serious injuries in recent weeks.

By contrast, although United have to contend with the suspension of Darren Fletcher from their midfield, Sir Alex’s selection headaches end there. With a full compliment of stars United’s spirits will be high, and the Red Devils will be looking to Wayne Rooney (7/4 to be booked) and Cristiano Ronaldo to lead the line, with Berbatov and Tevez predicted to start the match as a pair of expensive bench-warmers.

United will also be buoyed by several other factors. Firstly, recent history is on Fergie’s side after having seen his team eliminate the Catalans from last season’s competition. Next, Manchester United can boast a one-hundred percent winning streak in their previous Champions league finals. Then there is the fact that the jewel in Barcelona’s crown - Lionel Messi (9/2 to be the man of the match, 5/2 to score)- enters the match in the knowledge that the Argentine has never managed to score against an English team after eight attempts. And finally, there is the underlying feeling that, following Barca’s narrow defeat of Chelsea in the semi-finals which was generally seen as a triumph for poor refereeing rather than just-deserves on the part of the Spanish, that Barca somehow arrive in Rome having already exhausted their lady luck tokens en route to the final.

On the flip-side, it is also true that no Champions League winner has successfully defended their trophy in back-to-back seasons.

Arguably, however, the bottom-line is that this is the final with no underdog. Both teams will have the luxury of fielding sides jam-packed with potential match-winners, and picking a pre-match winner is pure folly.

But if forced to make a prediction, the most convincing argument appears to be that whilst Barcelona have the capability of breaching the United defense, the Spanish rearguard appears far more susceptible to conceding goals during the contest. Provided United can get their noses in front, Sir Alex may well adopt Chelsea’s park-the-bus tactics which so effectively neutralise the attacking threat of the Catalans, and with Barca desperate to find an equaliser, United could run riot.

Alternatively, Samuel Eto’o will prove to be the first goalscorer (7/1), and all bets are off.

101gg predicts: Manchester United 3 – Barcelona 0 (33/1) & Nemanja Vidic to be the first goalscorer (40/1)

Full match odds here.