MLB Rumors: All the Early Whispers of the Upcoming Offseason
Although the World Series trophy remains unclaimed, MLB general managers are already setting up shop for a potentially promising offseason.
Once the postseason winds down, teams will dust off their phones and get busy replenishing their rosters for next season. Even squads vying for a championship now have free agency and trades on the back of their mind.
Many impact names will hit the free-agent market in search of landing a major deal. Based on the deals B.J. Upton and Edwin Jackson received last winter, there's a good chances the game's top available players succeed in signing lucrative contracts.
And it's not all about free agency. Some star players under team control could change uniforms before next Opening Day. A former American League Cy Young winner could experience new terrain while this year's likely honoree may also see his name sprinkled around the hot stove.
Winter meetings are still a ways away, but that doesn't mean we can't get a head start on examining the MLB rumor mill.
Note: All advanced statistics are courtesy of FanGraphs.
Who Will Shin-Soo Choose?
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After trailing only Miguel Cabrera, Mike Trout and Joey Votto with a .423 on-base percentage, Shin-Soo Choo is going to find an eager suitor. But how much cash can the veteran outfielder procure on the open market?
Could the 31-year-old receive $100 million after hitting .285/.423/.462 last season for the Cincinnati Reds? While many skeptics would balk from that lofty price tag out of fear of his power diminishing outside the Great American Ballpark, agent Scott Boras thinks that figure is on the low side.
According to CBS Sports' Jon Heyman, Boras believes Choo should get paid well north of that parameter:
"The value of a leadoff hitter who has a .420 on-base percentage, 20-stolen base speed, 20-home run power, the ability to score 100 runs, and who has the ability to play center field and is a Gold Glove type defender in right field is immense. We don't see these types of players in the free-agent market. I only want to talk about our clients, and the last one we had anywhere near this was Jayson Werth.
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Anyone can play center field if the manager tells him to go stand in the middle of that grassy green area, but that doesn't mean he can man the position well. Choo was a fish out of water in center field, recording the lowest Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) of any outfielder at minus-15.5.
And even after Werth hit .318/.398/.532 in 129 games this season, the Washington Nationals must dearly regret handing him a seven-year, $126 million contract before the 2011 campaign.
Heyman listed the Reds, New York Mets, Chicago Cubs and Texas Rangers as teams expressing interest, but ESPN New York's Adam Rubin said the Mets are unlikely to offer more than four years. Chances are the Cubs and other candidates will likely express similar caution after watching Werth, Upton, Michael Bourn and Josh Hamilton fail to live up to massive deals.
Dodgers Gunning for Alex Guerrero
2 of 8The Los Angeles Dodgers have been busy playing postseason baseball, but that hasn't stopped their front office from exploring potential upgrades for next year.
Mark Ellis, who turned 36 during the season, tallied a .674 OPS at second base. That lackluster production is unlikely to entice Los Angeles to pick up his club option for 2014, which means the Dodgers will need a new running mate to complement Hanley Ramirez in the middle infield.
After hitting the jackpot with Yasiel Puig, the Dodgers are looking at another Cuban prospect. According to Heyman, the Dodgers are interesting in signing Alex Guerrero.
The 5'11", 205-pound 26-year-old is tabbed as a power bat comparable to Dan Uggla, but not the one who hit .179/.309/.362 in a disastrous 2013 season. Guerrero hit 21 homers in 328 plate appearances last year before defecting from Cuba.
Heyman also listed the Boston Red Sox, San Francisco Giants, Reds and Rangers as potential bidders. While the St. Louis Cardinals scouted him, they are unlikely to make a push with Matt Carpenter at second and Kolten Wong waiting for his chance to play every day.
Los Angeles aggressively pursuing a second baseman also suggests that the club may not be willing to shell out a hefty check for superstar Robinson Cano.
Could Carlos Beltran Head Back to New York...in Pinstripes?
3 of 8When Carlos Beltran geared up for free agency nine years ago, he crushed eight homers to lead the Houston Astros to the World Series.
He won't receive another six-figure payday, but he might garner a higher salary than his current one after hitting 56 homers during his two-year, $26 million contract with the St. Louis Cardinals, who can move Allen Craig to right field with Matt Adams manning first base or unleash top prospect Oscar Taveras.
Beltran could call New York his home again, but not back with the Mets. According to the New York Daily News' Mark Feinsand, mutual interest exists between the veteran and the New York Yankees, who can use some pop in the outfield:
"A source familiar with Beltran’s thinking said the 36-year-old — he’ll turn 37 in April — would be interested in a potential move to the Bronx, where he could step in as the primary right fielder while getting some turns as the designated hitter to keep his body fresh.
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Cano and Curtis Granderson could leave the Bronx this offseason, further damaging a deflated offense that ranked 27th in baseball with a .376 team slugging percentage in 2013. Alex Rodriguez could miss the entire season if his suspension is not lifted, and Derek Jeter showed that he had little left in the tank during an injury-riddled season.
Beltran's 23.9 line-drive percentage would translate well in Yankee Stadium, helping him fend off Father Time for another year or two. He's no longer a prolific baserunner or Gold Glove outfielder, but his power makes him worthy of another two-year gig.
It would create a log jam in the outfield, as New York will have Brett Gardner, Alfonso Soriano, Vernon Wells and Ichiro Suzuki locked up for 2014. Wells and Suzuki, however, have not aged well, and nobody is regularly occupying the designated hitter slot.
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Brian McCann Could See a Massive Payday
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When he's not protecting the sanctity of baseball from hoodlums like Carlos Gomez who dream to enjoy playing a game, Brian McCann is a darn good catcher.
Certainly the top backstop on the market this winter, McCann should obtain a nice check after delivering 20 homers in each of the last six seasons for the Atlanta Braves. But since the Braves have a cheaper alternative with matching power in Evan Gattis, it makes sense for Atlanta to cut ties with the lifelong Brave.
An unnamed MLB GM told ESPN New York's Andrew Marchand that McCann could net $100 million, with the thought being that he could transition to first base or designated hitter if catching takes a toll on his aging body.
That's a whole lot of money to give McCann, who turns 30 before 2014's Opening Day, in anticipation of moving him away from catcher. His .256/.336/.461 slash line looks much less impressive when not coming from behind the plate.
Now the problem is finding the club willing to award him that deal. The New York Post's Dan Martin speculates that the Yankees will show interest, but they're also still trying to decrease their payroll to $189 million to avoid a costly luxury-tax penalty.
Maybe that GM has a nefarious agenda in mind, because an aging catcher who amassed a 2.7 WAR in 2013 is unlikely to generate such a large contract.
Is the Jose Abreu Sweepstakes Over?
5 of 8Teams in search of a power first baseman could chase Mike Napoli, Kendrys Morales or Justin Morneau. Or they can find an answer internationally in Jose Abreu.
While he is an unknown commodity, the Cuban defector is younger than the other free agents at 27 years old. Abreu slugged .735 in his last season in Cuba before hitting three homers during the 2013 World Baseball Classic, making him a highly desired commodity among teams that like power hitters—wait, that's every team.
Yet the race for his services has dwindled down to two teams. On Thursday night, Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal wrote on Twitter that Abreu signed a six-year, $68 million deal with the Chicago White Sox, who scored an AL-low 3.7 runs per game and could lose a declining Paul Konerko to free agency.
But not so fast. MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan later reported that the Rangers are still in the running. Their offense was hardly the juggernaut of past years without Josh Hamilton and Mike Napoli, and Nelson Cruz's contract has now run out.
If Abreu's power coalesces at the major league level, the winning bidder could grab a gigantic bargain with the long-term contract. That also, however, creates a long-term risk for an unproven player.
UPDATE: MLB.com's Jesse Sanchez confirmed Rosenthal's report that the White Sox have reached an agreement with Abreu.
Will Someone Pay the Price to Acquire Tampa Bay's Ace?
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The Tampa Bay Rays typically do not keep starting pitchers around for long. David Price is unlikely to become an exception.
Price, whose 2.56 ERA won him the AL Cy Young in 2012, does not enter free agency until 2016. He will, however, warrant a raise in arbitration, which has the Rays looking to transform him into a cheaper youngster like they did when trading Matt Garza and James Shields in previous years.
According to The Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo, many insiders believe the Rays will dangle Price on the trading block while building their rotation around Alex Cobb, Matt Moore, Chris Archer and Jake Odorizzi:
"[The Rays] appear to be trying to figure out ways to make Price the focal point of their pitching staff for many years, but they know they’re losing the battle. So, this offseason the consensus among baseball executives — and even Price himself — is that Tampa general manager Andrew Friedman will try to make another Wil Myers-type deal, obtain a player or two that are major league-ready and plug them into the lineup or rotation.
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Price's 2013 campaign looks like a down year at first glance due to his inflated 3.33 ERA and lowered 7.28 K/9 ratio, but he was not much worse than during his Cy Young season. Price posted the same 1.10 WHIP, his 3.03 FIP topped 2012's 3.03 fielding independent pitching mark, and he issued just 27 walks through 186.2 innings.
Cafardo mentioned nearly half of MLB's teams as potential suitors because who wouldn't want a 28-year-old front-line starter? Price is the type of stud that the Mets or Cubs may pony up prospects for in hopes of revitalizing their squads, while the Rangers could assemble a formidable rotation if they were willing to part with Jurickson Profar.
Will the Detroit Tigers Shop Max Scherzer?
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Unlike the Rays, the Detroit Tigers are not a small-market organization that must cash out and sell their stars before paying them. Yet they reportedly may entertain the notion of swapping Max Scherzer after he likely takes home the Cy Young.
His 21-3 record gives him support from conventional voters, but his 2.90 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 2.74 FIP and 240 strikeouts through 214.1 innings makes him a deserving contender in most onlookers' opinion. (It is much closer than everyone thinks when you look past the misleading wins stat, but his victory shouldn't cause an uproar in the sabermetric community.)
Nevertheless, CBS Sports' Danny Knobler wrote that the Tigers could look to trade him during the offseason. Here's his explanation for the surprising speculation:
"So why would the Tigers trade him? Because Scherzer is one year away from free agency and is a Scott Boras client who is very unlikely to sign a long-term deal this close to being able to test the market. The Tigers may make an attempt to sign him after this season, but they realize that it's unlikely he would accept a deal now.
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To be clear, this report came out before the Tigers defeated the Oakland Athletics in the ALDS. He has since struck out 13 Red Sox batters during seven masterful innings in Game 2, and a World Series appearance and/or title would make dealing him a much tougher sell for Detroit.
Many of the same squads clamoring for Price would also likely court Scherzer, who turned 29 in July. American League East clubs would have a better chance of acquiring him rather than convincing Tampa Bay to trade within the division.
Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander turned 30 this year and Prince Fielder will reach that milestone next May, so this could be an opportunity for Detroit to restock the organization with some prime young blood.
Phillies Fighting for Giancarlo Stanton
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The Miami Marlins only have one asset in their lineup, and it's possible they send him away soon.
Giancarlo Stanton established himself as one of the league's fiercest batters when he slugged an incredible .608 in 2012. Although he dropped off with a .480 slugging percentage in 2013 while again spending significant time on the disabled list, the 24-year-old still boasts a ferocious power bat with star upside.
Cafardo reported that the Philadelphia Phillies have expressed colossal interest in snatching Stanton from their National League East rivals:
"Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. has tried at least 10 times to pry Stanton loose, with no luck. Tough sell inside the division. But with Dan Jennings now at the helm in Miami, who knows if the Marlins would let Stanton go? Stanton would draw interest from a lot of teams, including the Tigers, Mets, Mariners, Yankees, Orioles, Angels, and Red Sox, so Jennings could get a load of top prospects.
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The Marlins went 62-100 last season, rating last in offensive batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. Stanton represents their only legitimate bat, but they also might not build a competitive squad while Stanton remains under team control.
It'd take a premium package of young talent to acquire Stanton, but you can never put it past the Marlins to trade their top talent.
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