Denver Broncos vs. Indianapolis Colts: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

Denver has won its last eight road games, going 6-2 ATS along the way.

This week, the Broncos take Peyton Manning on a remembrance trip to his old stompin' grounds to play the Colts in Indy. But the Colts have a history of stomping the Broncos and covering spreads.

Point spread: Broncos opened as 7.5-point favorites; the total was 56.5. (Line updates and Matchup report)

Computer Prediction: 42.9-37.5 Broncos

Why the Broncos can cover the spread

Denver has been the monster of the league so far this season, averaging 44 points per game, leading the league in offense and basically moving the ball at will. The Broncos are 3-2-1 ATS, and the only real reason they haven't covered those three games is because the spreads have been so high.

Also, Manning's Denver teammates would probably love to help him beat his former team.

Why the Colts can cover the spread

Indy is 15-7 SU and 14-8 ATS in a season-plus with Andrew Luck at quarterback. But he hasn't necessarily been the whole story.

The Colts rank eighth in rushing at 131 yards per game, rank 11th in total defense and own a +5 turnover ratio. They're also 7-0 in both SU and ATS as home dogs over the past few seasons, 11-2 SU (10-3 ATS) in home games and 5-0 SU and ATS against Denver.

Smart Pick

The OddsShark computer is predicting the Broncos to win in a shootout but not by enough to cover the spread. Denver didn't look like it wanted to cover that big spread against the Jags last Sunday, but the Orange should be raring to go for this one.

Indy, meanwhile, is playing on the short week, coming home after losing in San Diego on Monday night. Give the points and back the Broncos.

Trends:

Broncos 0-5 SU & ATS past five vs. Colts

Colts 7-0 SU & ATS past seven games as home underdog

OVER is 6-1 past 7 meetings

Colts 11-2 SU, 10-3 ATS past 13 at home

Broncos won 8 straight road games (6-2 ATS)

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark—follow them on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.