Timothy Bradley vs. Juan Manuel Marquez: 10 Burning Questions for Title Fight
This Saturday night in Las Vegas, Top Rank and HBO present their first boxing pay-per-view of the fall season when Mexican legend Juan Manuel Marquez attempts to become a five-division world champion by snatching the WBO welterweight title away from Timothy Bradley.
This is a meeting between the two men who recorded victories over Manny Pacquiao in 2012. It's a battle between an experienced champion in his prime and a 40-year-old future Hall of Famer trying to hold off Father Time.
As with almost any showdown between top-rated fighters, this one raises a host of intriguing questions. Fans will be waiting Saturday night to find out the answers.
Will the Fight Sell as a Pay-Per-View?
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By any objective analysis, Juan Manuel Marquez and Timothy Bradley are great fighters. Most writers view them as top five in the ultra-competitive welterweight division and top 10 as pound-for-pound stars.
For serious fans, this is a compelling fight. But whether or not it will generate the type of casual-fan interest necessary to drive pay-per-view sales remains to be seen.
There couldn't be a better time to take a chance on them. Bradley survived a thrilling war with Ruslan Provodnikov last March, and Marquez scored a dramatic Round 6 KO over long-time rival Manny Pacquiao last December.
But building the necessary celebrity to successfully headline a pay-per-view takes time and requires an X-factor quality beyond mere boxing excellence.
I'm looking forward to the fight. But I'm curious to see how it sells.
Will Bradley Be Recovered from Last March?
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Last March, Timothy Bradley emerged victorious from a brutal war with the tough Siberian contender Ruslan Provodnikov. Bradley appeared to be knocked out on his feet in both of the first two rounds and survived a knock down and another near stoppage in Round 12.
Bradley has been open in discussing how hard that fight was on him physically. On HBO's 24/7, he stated that it took him a couple of months before he no longer felt the after effects of his concussion.
Bradley is as hard as they come in the fight game and says now he's back to 100 percent in his interviews. But that fight with Provodnikov was the kind of fight that can permanently damage a fighter in small ways that mean the difference between being an elite fighter and just another contender.
There is no way to be certain Bradley is really fully recovered without seeing him tested by another elite fighter like Marquez.
Will Bradley Go After Marquez Like He Did Provodnikov?
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Timothy Bradley's aggressive approach to his fight with Ruslan Provodnikov last March took many boxing observers by surprise. Perhaps still stinging from the loud criticism of his split-decision victory over Manny Pacquiao in June 2012, Bradley came out as if he had something to prove in his return bout, discarding his normally calculating style.
It nearly resulted in disaster. Choosing to trade bombs with Provodnikov got Bradley hurt badly in both of the first two rounds and nearly cost him the fight. A referee's stoppage would not have caused outrage.
Bradley was able to recover and take control, ultimately winning most of the rounds in the fight. But he was still vulnerable to a knockdown and near stoppage in Round 12.
If Bradley approaches Marquez like he did Provodnikov he's going to get knocked out. Marquez is among the great counter-punchers of this century and an aggressive finisher when an opponent is in trouble.
If Marquez has Bradley out on his feet at any point in the fight, he'll finish him.
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Will Bradley Be Able to Punch with Marquez?
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Timothy Bradley is a great athlete and an excellent technical boxer. But he lacks the kind of serious punching power that comes in handy at the elite level of the sport. He's knocked out just 12 of 30 opponents and almost nobody since reaching the world-class level.
If Bradley were a bigger puncher, I think he would have finished Ruslan Provodnikov last March by Round 9 or 10 TKO, instead of being around to almost get stopped himself in Round 12.
Marquez has never been knocked out in his two-decade long career. He has always had knockout power himself and retains it at welterweight, as he demonstrated against Manny Pacquiao last December.
The difference in punching power could play a factor if Marquez falls behind and has to chase a knockout in the later rounds of the fight.
Will Marquez Be Physically Strong Enough to Handle Bradley?
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Timothy Bradley may not be blessed with exceptional punching power, but he's among the strongest pound-for-pound athletes in the sport. Bradley uses that exceptional strength to muscle his opponents around in clinches and against the ropes, allowing him to create angles to attack from.
When I interviewed Bradley before his fight with Provodnikov, he told me he felt his strength had played a big part in allowing him to slow down the normally explosive Manny Pacquiao. I would credit some of Bradley's trouble with Provodnikov to the fact that Provodnikov is himself an exceptionally strong welterweight.
Marquez is a physical specimen in his own right. He's always been ahead of the curve in his physical training. But he was still fighting at featherweight after his 30th birthday.
Bradley is the naturally larger man, and he will be stronger. How Marquez handles that disadvantage will play a big part in deciding the fight.
Will Marquez Be Able to Create Enough Space to Counter?
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Juan Manuel Marquez's best punch is the straight-right counter. His timing with the punch is exquisite, but he requires some space to make it work, and Bradley excels at crowding space and taking it away.
In a sense, this question is another version of the question in the past slide. Marquez has the footwork to maneuver with just about anybody.
But if Bradley can manage to muscle him around like an octopus, it could make for a frustrating fight for Marquez.
Will Marquez Be Able to Match Bradley Physically All Fight Long?
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I thought Juan Manuel Marquez deserved to win his third fight with Manny Pacquiao in November 2011. But I have never called the judges' decision a robbery because the fight was very close.
And the main reason it was close was because Marquez took his foot of the gas and slowed down in the later rounds.
Why he did was a mystery. Was he simply that confident that he had done enough to win the decision that he felt comfortable coasting? Or was the 38-year-old Marquez simply fatigued?
Marquez is two years older now, and fighter years start to turn into dog years for most fighters in their late 30s and early 40s.
Marquez stated on 24/7 that he felt like he was 25. But feeling like you are 25 when you are training is one thing.
Still feeling that way when you are going toe-to-toe with a world-class opponent who is 10 years younger than you are is a different matter.
Marquez's ability to match the pace of the supremely conditioned Bradley is a big question going into this fight.
Who Will Be the Aggressor as the Fight Unfolds?
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Timothy Bradley and Juan Manuel Marquez are both smart tactical boxers with great defense and counter-punching. For this reason, their bout Saturday could end up looking more like a chess match than a fight at times.
Both of these guys have been in some very exciting fights, but they may not make for a thriller against each other.
But at some point, one of them is going to have to play the role of aggressor. My guess is that Marquez will be the one.
Will the Judging Be Controversial?
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It's a depressing state of affairs that this will probably be one of the top burning questions heading into any high profile fight for the foreseeable future. Whether it's mere incompetence or outright corruption, atrocious judging decisions have become nearly as common as attractive ring card girls.
The judges for Saturday night will be Robert Hoyle, Patricia Morse Jarman and Glenn Feldman. If the fight goes to the cards, their decisions will automatically be under scrutiny.
I see nothing alarming in any of the three judges' recent decisions.
Will Top Rank Be Able to Build off This Fight Going Forward?
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March 2013 was a great month for boxing. On March 16, Timothy Bradley outlasted Ruslan Provodnikov in a brutal war of attrition. Two weeks later, Mike Alvarado won his rematch against Brandon Rios in another all-action war.
Top Rank and HBO are reaping the benefits of those two exciting fights this fall. Bradley will face off with the legendary Juan Manuel Marquez this Saturday. Provodnikov and Alvarado meet on October 19 in another highly anticipated showdown.
Brandon Rios will face Manny Pacquiao on pay-per-view in November. It's no secret that Top Rank would like to have this fight between Bradley and Marquez provide the opponent for Pacquiao's next fight after Rios.
If things fall into place for Top Rank as well this fall as they did in the spring, boxing fans will have some more big fights to look forward to in 2014.
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