Predicting Which NBA Teams Will Take the Biggest Step Back in 2013-14

Regression is an issue every NBA team must deal with eventually. Aging rosters and constant player movement make it difficult for any franchise to stay on top forever. 

A number of teams will find themselves going back to the drawing board this season. With a draft expected to be loaded with talent, and a free agent class that may include the likes of LeBron James and Carmelo Anthony, there may not be a better time to plan a downward spiral. 

The fight for the No. 1 pick in the 2014 NBA Draft should be every bit as competitive as the battle for the NBA championship. We've already seen some teams gut their roster with the hopes of tanking their way to a victory in the Andrew Wiggins sweepstakes. 

Which teams will fall the hardest though?

Answering that question is contingent on three factors. First, we will look at the decrease in overall talent on this year's roster as opposed to last year's squad. Next, there is the potential pitfalls facing these declining teams and how they will affect their chances of matching last season's standards.

Finally, we take into account how the level of competition around these franchises improved over the summer.

Here is a look at a handful of teams that are in for a hard fall from grace this upcoming season.  

Boston Celtics

Let's get the most obvious free-fall out of the way first. Last season, the writing was on the wall that the Boston Celtics' run as one of the NBA's elite was coming to an end.

The team earned the East's seventh seed with a 41-40 record and were eliminated in six games in a first-round series with the New York Knicks. Down the stretch, an old roster showed its age and the air really came out of the tires when Rajon Rondo tore his ACL in late January. 

All of those factors motivated the team to take a sledgehammer to everything Danny Ainge has built over the last few years. Doc Rivers was eventually sent to Los Angeles to coach the Clippers. Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce were traded to Brooklyn for draft picks and spare parts. 

The team even dealt away 2012 first-rounder Fab Melo. 

The end result is a middling team that will be lucky to win 30 games. Assuming Rondo isn't ready to start the season, the best player in a Celtics uniform on opening night might be Jeff Green. Kris Humphries, Courtney Lee, and Brandon Brass round out the projected starting five, with oft-injured Avery Bradley filling in for Rondo. 

The bench will be highlighted by overpaid forward Gerald Wallace and promising rookie Kelly Olynyk. The coaching duties will be handled by former Butler coach Brad Stevens, who has zero head coaching experience in the pros.

As Boston falls, other teams in the East seem poised to rise. Detroit, Washington, and Cleveland are all on the cusp of being playoff teams.

All signs point to a bumpy few years for the once-proud Celtics. An aging team has managed to get younger, but it came at the expense of most of their high-end talent.  

Milwaukee Bucks

It's hard to fathom how a team that finished 38-44 last season could possibly be worse, but the Milwaukee Bucks are going to give it their best shot. The team's offseason moves were questionable to say the least.

They essentially swapped shooting guards with the Mavericks, as they let Monta Ellis move on to Dallas and signed O.J. Mayo as his replacement. They finished their backcourt rebuild by shipping Brandon Jennings to Detroit in exchange for Brandon Knight. They also added Luke Ridnour in a trade with Minnesota. 

In the draft, the Bucks rolled the dice on "The Greek Freak", Giannis Antetokounmpo. The 18-year-old is a physical marvel with uncanny quickness and large hands, but he's years away from contributing in the pros. To help buffer the transition, the team acquired veteran Caron Butler to man the small forward spot. 

Somehow, during a summer where teams gave away players to free up cap space and tank for a better draft spot, the Bucks managed to make their team worse while squandering money on the likes of Zaza Pachulia and Carlos Delfino.

The roster is filled with logjams at each position that will take time to sort out. Who is the best option at the point, Ridnour or Knight? Can the wildly-inconsistent Mayo be the alpha dog or should they rely on Ersan Ilyasova? Will Larry Sanders' offense continue to develop?

In an improving Eastern Conference, the Bucks will be lucky to sniff half of the 38 wins they notched last season. 

Denver Nuggets

Last season, the Denver Nuggets won 57 games, notched the third seed in the West and gave the Golden State Warriors everything they could handle in a thrilling six-game playoff series. 

It will be a stretch for them to repeat that again this year. The Nuggets have the talent to remain in the playoff mix, but crucial offseason losses will keep them out of a top-three seed. 

George Karl, the reigning NBA Coach of the Year, was fired. In his place, the team hired former Lakers and Pacers assistant Brian Shaw. Shaw had been a hot name in coaching circles for years and it is great that he finally landed a gig. That being said, he faces the daunting task of replacing a legend like Karl in his first stint as a head coach. 

On the court, Andre Iguodala left the Rocky Mountains for a life in Golden State. Corey Brewer went back to the team that drafted him in Minnesota. That leaves the Nuggets without its two best perimeter defenders. 

Danilo Gallinari, returning from a midseason knee injury, will be able pick up the offensive void left by Iggy. However, he can't match Iguodala's efforts on the defensive end. According to 82games.com, opponents shot 48.7 percent against Iguodala while Gallo allowed just under 50 percent. 

Making matters worse for Denver, the West got a bit tougher over the summer. With the addition of Dwight Howard, Houston figures to be move up the rankings. Golden State will be much improved, as will the Los Angeles Clippers. 

The Nuggets may still make it back to the postseason, but it will likely be as a sixth or seventh seed. You should also expect a dip from the 57 wins from last year as the team adjusts to the Shaw regime. 

Philadelphia 76ers

The Philadelphia Sixers have made an aggressive effort to not be competitive for a while. Like the Milwaukee Bucks, it is hard to imagine how a team that finished under .500 could be worse, but the Sixers are on the verge of being historically inept this season. 

Head coach Doug Collins is gone and San Antonio Spurs assistant Brett Brown has taken his place. All-Star point guard Jrue Holiday is going from Philly cheesesteaks to Po' boys in the Big Easy after being traded to New Orleans on draft day. 

In that trade, the team acquired the creaky knees of shot-blocker Nerlens Noel to replace the creakier knees of the departed Andrew Bynum. Noel is still recovering from an ACL injury suffered during his final year at Kentucky and might miss the first few weeks of the season.

They also managed to receive a top-five protected 2014 first-round pick from the Pelicans. 

The best player on the current roster is forward Thaddeus Young, who averaged 14.8 points and 7.5 rebounds last season. 

Seriously. 

The next option is veteran Jason Richardson, who might not be back til February (if at all) due to a knee injury. Beyond that, there's Spencer Hawes, Evan Turner and Michael Carter-Williams in the projected starting rotation. Hawes is a serviceable big man who is keeping the spot warm for Noel. 

Turner has yet to live up to his promise after being the No. 2 overall pick in the 2010 NBA Draft. Carter-Williams has potential, but he needs time to develop his jumper and get adjusted to the pros. 

The trade of Holiday for essentially two first-round picks was a message that this team is looking far down the road. The team is clearly hoping to land some good picks in next year's draft and build the foundation from there. 

In the meantime, Philadelphia will put a team on the court that could rival the dreadful 9-73 Sixers from the Fred Carter days during the 1972-73 season. 

Los Angeles Lakers

The 2012-13 Los Angeles Lakers were a colossal disappointment. With one of the most star-studded starting rotations in recent memory, the team finished 45-37 and backed into the playoffs as the seventh seed before getting swept in the first round by San Antonio. 

This year, they have the potential to be worse. 

When you take an unbiased look at this year's team, there are several things that have to happen for the Lakers to be among the cream of the NBA crop.  

First, Kobe Bryant, at 35 years old, would have to make a seamless return from a gruesome Achilles injury. As it stands, The Black Mamba is reportedly ahead of schedule (according to CBSSports' Matt Moore) and could be back for opening night. 

Bryant's a tireless worker and he's going to push himself to be in the best possible shape he can be in. That being said, he will be entering his 18th season and there is a lot of mileage on that body. How much faith are you putting in Kobe being able to carry this team again?

Speaking of injuries, Steve Nash (who will turn 40 in February) will have to stay healthy and prove he's still one of the league's elite point guards. Nash played in just 50 regular season games last season, which is the least amount of games he's appeared in since the strike-shortened 1998-99 season. 

Like Kobe, Nash will be entering his 18th season and he's coming off a year where he was statistically outperformed by Greivis Vasquez. Was his Lakers debut an aberration or a sign that the wheels are starting to come off?

Next, the team will have to make strides defensively, despite the losses of two of their best defenders. Dwight Howard left the bright lights of Hollywood to sign with Houston. Metta World Peace was amnestied and returned home to New York to play for the Knicks.   

Teams coached by Mike D'Antoni have been known more for their offense than being able to stop opponents. Last season, the Lakers were 22nd in the NBA in average points allowed, giving up 101 a night. How does that change without Howard protecting the rim and World Peace on the perimeter? 

Finally, the supporting cast took a turn for the worse. In addition to Howard and World Peace leaving, the Lakers also lost Antawn Jamison and Earl Clark. In their absence, the team added Nick Young, Wesley Johnson and Chris Kaman. 

Johnson has yet to live up to be a lottery pick. Young is a gunner who struggles with consistency. Kaman, while adequate, has played more than 50 games once in the last five years. Can these guys be relied on to take pressure off L.A.'s Big Three? 

The Lakers are an aging team that need a lot to break their way to even stay competitive. The Thunder, Spurs and Clippers are entrenched at the top of the West. Memphis, Golden State and Denver will be in the mix as well.

Also, young teams like Portland, Minnesota and even New Orleans will be looking to make postseason runs this season. The conference is too deep for a Lakers team that can't afford to slip up. 

It will be a tough pill to swallow, but it might be time to accept the Lakers as a team on the outside looking in come playoff time.