Week 2 Fantasy Football Projections: Breakout Players Who Won't Repeat Success

I have enough faith in society to assume that most NFL fans know better than to cast wide-ranging predictions based on Week 1 results. That they know the week of highest variance around the league is the first, and that there are a multitude of mitigating circumstances as to why performance would be up or down in a one-game sample. 

And then I look at the weekly pickups in an average fantasy football league and lose that faith. Each season you'll see semi-proven players with tangible track records dropped in the first waiver period as folks rush to grab players who over-performed expectations. 

The psychology behind the move is understandable. Everyone wants to grab the next Randall Cobb or T.Y. Hilton. It's the same as the sleeper argument on draft day. Getting theoretical value too often holds more weight than actual football production.

The problem is that a majority of those players turn into one-week wonders or players like Vick Ballard—guys who get a choice out of circumstance and provide you with six points on the regular. Meanwhile, someone in your league will have one too many drinks this week, drop someone like Giovani Bernard and watchas he breaks out later in the season for a more patient owner. 

We're in Week 1, so anything is possible. But there were a couple players who stood out as such obvious candidates for regression that they're worth mentioning. Please note that Peyton Manning, Adrian Peterson, and Victor Cruz won't be putting up their Week 1 numbers every week; they'll "regress" in the definition of the word. But...c'mon.

With that caveat out of the way, here's a look at a couple breakout guys you might just want to avoid on the waiver wire this week—provided you enjoy your walls without padding. 

Jerome Simpson (WR, Minnesota Vikings)

So we meet again, Jerome Simpson. The 27-year-old Vikings receiver should be no stranger to fantasy owners. His name popped into the national lexicon in Weeks 16 and 17 of 2010, when he put up massive numbers in consecutive games with the Bengals when Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens were out of the lineup.

Billed as a possible breakout candidate in 2011, Simpson would go on to a wholly "meh" season in which he grabbed 50 balls for 725 yards. Cincinnati allowed him to walk after the campaign rather than offering him a new deal, and he's landed with the Vikings on one-year contracts each of the past two offseasons.

Those checks finally paid some dividends this week. Simpson was the only person on the field whom Christian Pondered liked throwing to more than the Detroit Lions defense, finishing with an excellent seven-catch, 140-yard outing. He and Ponder showed a solid connection, with the embattled signal-caller completing seven of his eight looks Simpson's way. 

The former second-round pick also outshone splashy free-agent signing Greg Jennings, who finished with three catches for 33 yards on seven targets. It was a rather nondescript performance from a player who spent his entire offseason antagonizing former teammates and talking up an impending massive campaign.

But the story here is Simpson. He's owned in, as of publication, just 1.5 percent of ESPN.com fantasy leagues. Could he finally have found a situation in which he can live up to his pedigree? Ponder does need a safety blanket with Percy Harvin currently rehabbing a hip injury while wearing Seattle Seahawks warm-up gear.

So I suppose it's possible. We're just going to work in likelihoods here and say you're better off keeping Simpson where he was at the beginning of the season—out of sight, out of mind.

Ponder was wretched again this week, turning the ball over four times and having a penalty take away a fifth. There are frankly exactly zero trustworthy Minnesota players not named Adrian Peterson from a fantasy perspective. 

Long-term opportunity is also a question. Leslie Frazier is going to want talented rookie Cordarrelle Patterson involved eventually. He received only five offensive snaps in his professional debut, catching one pass for 10 yards. That might not factor in until later in the season, but Simpson's dubious track record, Jennings' presence and Ponder's inability to complete passes do.

While maybe deeper leagues—I'm talking 16 teams here—could take a flier, you're better off sticking with whatever other second-tier receiver is currently on your bench. 

Julian Edelman (WR, New England Patriots)

Much like Simpson, we've been here before. Edelman has been a fashionable sleeper and waiver-wire pickup off and on for years now. He was a supposed Wes Welker replacement before Welker was even a Bronco, with his diminutive size and shiftiness in the middle of the field making him look like a carbon copy at times.

Here's the thing: We have a four-year sample size with Edelman playing the same role. The Patriots don't seem to view him as a formidable replacement for Welker, having signed Danny Amendola 0.6 seconds after the Denver coup. Bill Belichick and, by proxy, Tom Brady ostensibly like having Edelman playing a Swiss Army knife special teams role and only stepping into the offense when absolutely necessary.

New England's turnover in pass-catchers this offseason probably gave Edelman some advantage en route to his seven-catch, 79-yard, two-touchdown outing. He has a familiarity with Brady that other players don't, and the Patriots' bevy of rookies looked far from ready to contribute. Brady completed 29 passes Sunday; only five of those didn't go to an inside receiver or running back.

All that said, Edelman's production comes down to three words: Gronk's not back. The Patriots' superstar tight end is still recovering from offseason surgery and probably won't play again in Week 2 with the team scheduled for Thursday night. Once Rob Gronkowski returns, the Edelman role will become redundant. 

Edelman's best use for fantasy owners, strangely enough, is going to be about the role he plays in New England—as a handcuff to Amendola. New England's shiny new receiver has a habit of spending more time on the trainer's table than the football field, and he's already been dealing with a groin issue. Amendola even left for a spell in the second quarter, likely to get treatment.

If you're in a PPR league, where the Patriots' slot role is a treasure trove of value, holding Edelman on a deep bench might not be a bad idea. Especially if you're holding onto someone like Johnathan Franklin or another running back with a small chance of cracking the glass ceiling. 

But in standard scoring, players like Edelman can be found on the waiver wire weekly. He's not going to score touchdowns every week, and on most Sundays he'll be lucky to crack the 50-yard barrier. When all else fails, trust a sample size that's going on a half-decade. 

Quick Hits: Other Borderline Fluke Performances to Ignore

Terrelle Pryor (QB, Oakland Raiders) - Playing Jacksonville this week certainly helps his cause, but I need to see at least two weeks of him as a semi-competent passer to buy in. The running skills are real, and so is the talent. But the potential also exists for Pryor to be so jarringly awful that it submarines your whole week. Pick him up if you're so inclined, but don't take the bait on starting him just yet.

Joique Bell (RB, Detroit Lions) - Bell seems like the goal-line back, and we all know there's some pass-catching ability there. He's just not going to get enough touches with Reggie Bush in a starring role, and figuring out when he's going to score two touchdowns again is impossible. Maybe pick Bell up if you don't trust Bush to stay healthy and have the bench spot, but that's about it.

Eddie Lacy (RB, Green Bay Packers) - The Packers offensive line still can't run block. Simple as that. 

Rod Streater (WR, Oakland Raiders) - He's still a receiver on the Raiders, yes? OK, then. No thanks.

Kellen Winslow (TE, New York Jets) - This is tricky because I think Winslow might actually be effective if he were able to stay healthy. Geno Smith's solid performance in Week 1 all but clinched he'll keep the starting job going forward (barring injury), and he and Winslow seemed to have a rapport going on Sunday. The problem here is health. Winslow has a chronic knee problem that could come back at any moment. Plus he's still never caught more than five touchdowns in a season.

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