Projecting the Los Angeles Dodgers' Opening Day 25-Man Roster

Recent acquisitions have thrown the 2013 Dodger roster into some turmoil, as the arrivals of Michael Young from the Phillies and Edinson Volquez from the Padres have made other spare parts such as Jerry Hairston, Jr. obsolete. Add that to the ever-present speculation about the Dodgers' pursuit of big-money free agents, and it’s never too early to look ahead to 2014.

With all that being said, though, there are still plenty of unknowns. A World Series title can make a GM more likely to bring back the same roster (see: 2012-13 San Francisco Giants), while a disastrous flameout in the Division Series could prompt massive turnover.

In addition, some of the vaunted Dodger payroll flexibility will likely be cut into when Clayton Kershaw signs his virtually inevitable extension.

A.J. Ellis, C

Ellis has done nothing to demonstrate any reason he shouldn’t be back with the Dodgers in 2014, so he will return as the starting catcher. He will be entering his age-32 season but has never shown any signs of being injury-prone, so his durability is not in question. He’s been a solidly league-average hitter this season (93 OPS+), which is more than enough production from a catcher on a team loaded with other power bats.

There was a time when Ellis was rumored to be replaceable; after all, he’s one of the few reasonably priced position players on the active roster, so his spot is eligible for upgrade. However, the 2012 whispers surrounding Joe Mauer never developed into anything substantive.

In addition, the Dodgers have shown no interest in going after Brian McCann, who would be an upgrade but is also a 29-year-old catcher with injury issues.

Tim Federowicz, C

Federowicz is your typical backup catcher: low-paid, low impact. He is a fine defensive catcher but has struggled offensively (.653 OPS). All of that, however, was expected. He’s still in his pre-arbitration years, which makes him very cheap, and he will be back with the team next year.

Adrian Gonzalez, 1B

Gonzalez has had an excellent year, with a 121 wRC+ (FanGraphs’ cumulative offensive measure, where 100 is league average) and is under contract for five more years. Even if he weren’t productive, the financial commitment would make him a guarantee to be back. As it is, Don Mattingly will happily write his name on the lineup card every day in 2014.

Robinson Cano, 2B

This one is a bit controversial. The Dodgers have already said they do not plan on going after Cano, but I believe that to be a smokescreen. For one thing, despite a sterling 83-56 record as of September 6, the team did start 30-42—so they clearly have holes.

For another, the Dodgers’ recent track record suggests they do plan on making a big splash, and second base is an obvious place to do so. Mark Ellis’ contract is up after this season, there is no ready-made replacement waiting in the system and Southern California product Chase Utley recently re-upped with the Phillies and is no longer on the market. Cano would be a logical fit.

If Cano doesn’t sign, possible alternatives would be internal options like the aforementioned Ellis or Nick Punto or external options like Kelly Johnson or Ramon Santiago.

Juan Uribe, 3B

Uribe’s return is predicated on two things: (1) he continues to be a starting-caliber third baseman (2.7 WAR, where 2.0 is considered about average) and (2) Michael Young doesn’t hit the cover off the ball in the final month.

The acquisition of Young was highly controversial, as some question what role he will fill and whether he is even an upgrade over Uribe (spoiler alert: he’s not). But if he goes on a tear and delivers a couple big postseason hits, it’s relatively easy to devise a scenario in which Ned Colletti combines his performance with his myth of clubhouse leadership and offers him an extension.

That would be a mistake, though. Uribe has been shockingly good this year, providing adequate offensive production and solid defense while establishing himself as a unifying force in the clubhouse.

And with no obvious upgrades available over the winter (the best free agent will be Kevin Youkilis, and no established third baseman is rumored to be available), the Dodgers will likely fill the spot with one of the two holdovers.

Hanley Ramirez, SS

Ramirez has been great since coming off the DL, as he has a .337/.384/.612 line in 72 games. Whether he can play shortstop is still a legitimate concern, but the shortstop market is bare (as it usually is) and hot prospect Corey Seager is still in High-A (and may not stay up the middle either).

Nick Punto, IF

Punto’s value comes from his ability to play shortstop in Ramirez’s absence. He’s been bad with the bat following a hot start (.222/.290/.294 since June 1), but he’s been a good enough member of the team that he will likely be offered a small, one-year deal to return.

Scott Van Slyke, 1B/OF

With Jerry Hairston coming off the books after this season, the Dodgers will be without a backup first baseman. Van Slyke has proved himself a capable big-league hitter (.803 OPS this season), so his long-awaited promotion to a permanent spot on the Dodger roster will come next year.

His ability to also play the outfield will be valuable because Adrian Gonzalez has played 134 out of a possible 139 games and thus doesn’t need many days off.

Yasiel Puig, OF

If someone predicted at the onset of the 2013 baseball season that Yasiel Puig would be on the Dodgers’ 2014 Opening Day roster, I don’t think that would have been controversial. His impressive spring training performance clearly illustrated his talent, but there was a general sense he wasn’t quite ready.

And a year later, it’s a safe bet to say Puig will be on the team come April 1. However, the way he’s done it has been incredible. He’s taken the league by storm this year, and has posted a .350/.409/.562 line while providing a spark in the outfield and in the clubhouse.

He has taken a lot of criticism, and much of it is unfair. He’s still just 22 years old and has clearly provided more positive value than negative value this season (3.7 FanGraphs WAR despite the -3.7 baserunning value).

Matt Kemp, OF

This year has been a lost season for Kemp. After signing an eight-year, $160 million extension following his excellent 2011, the Dodger center fielder has done nothing but struggle with injuries. He has played just 168 games in the last two seasons, and his increasing age (29 going into next season) raises legitimate questions about his long-term health.

However, the Dodgers are locked into his contract, he still has the elite talent that made him one of the best players in the game just two years ago and no team would take on the remaining six years of his deal.

Carl Crawford, OF

Despite his two down years in Boston (161 games, .711 OPS), Crawford has bounced back to put up a .763 OPS this season. There are still concerns about his ability to stay healthy—he’s played just 98 games—but he too is due big money and is thus unlikely to be taken off the Dodgers’ hands.

Skip Schumaker, IF/OF

Schumaker is an impending free agent, but I expect him to be back. He is especially valuable because he can play second base and all three outfield spots, which helps take the pressure off his bat. When he fills in as a utility man, he doesn’t need to hit as much—which is good, because his season line is .272/.344/.346.

Dee Gordon, SS

Gordon has bounced up and down, playing 168 games in the three years since his major league debut. He has struggled to stick in the big leagues, and I expect him to get one more shot to prove his worth. Gordon will have one final opportunity to establish himself as worthy of legitimate playing time.

Clayton Kershaw, SP

Kershaw will be entering his third arbitration-eligible season, but with rumors abound surrounding a pending contract extension. He will likely sign this offseason, but even if he doesn’t, he will be the ace of the staff heading into 2014.

Zack Greinke, SP

Greinke signed a six-year, $147 million contract before this season, and he will be entering the second year of it in 2014. He has had a strong season—2.78 ERA in 148.2 innings—and will be the No. 2 starter in a loaded Dodger rotation.

Hyun-Jin Ryu, SP

Like Greinke, Ryu was a new addition prior to the 2013 season, and he too has pitched well. Despite initial doubts about his ability to stick as a starter, his 3.02 ERA in 26 starts indicates he can do a better-than-average job in that capacity.

Ricky Nolasco, SP

Although not under contract next year, Nolasco has pitched excellently: in 11 games, he’s posted a 2.27 ERA with a 56/16 strikeout-to-walk rate.

Given the Dodgers’ ability to spend and Nolasco’s good performance, I expect them to lock him up to a long-term deal, a la Anibal Sanchez and the Tigers this past offseason.

Stephen Fife, SP

Fife is still in his pre-arbitration years, so he will be an inexpensive option in the fifth starter slot for the Dodgers next year. Other candidates for the fifth starter role in 2013 are Edinson Volquez and Chris Capuano, but both will be free agents (Capuano has a $1 million buyout) at the end of the year.

There are always several solid free agent options, but the Dodgers would be wasting money signing a higher-priced veteran to be their fifth starter. Fife is cost-controlled and has had decent success in his short big-league career—2.55 ERA in 77.2 innings. And although his peripherals aren’t great (3.88 FIP), he will likely be given a chance to prove he belongs.

Brandon League, RP

League has had a rough year—5.33 ERA in 49.0 innings—but is under contract through 2015 and will be back next year.

Kenley Jansen, RP

The 2013 season has really been Jansen’s breakout year, as he has taken the closer role and run with it. Since June 23, Jansen has converted 22 of 23 save chances, has a 1.38 ERA, and a 49/7 strikeout-to-walk rate. For the season, that ratio is 100/13, a number that ranks third among all big league relievers, and he was the first reliever to reach 100 strikeouts this season.

Paco Rodriguez, RP

Rodriguez has been excellent—2.01 ERA in 49.1 innings—and is still in his pre-arbitration years. He will be back next year, and at a pittance.

Ronald Belisario, RP

Even though it seems as if Belisario has been around forever, he’ll just be entering his first full year of arbitration (he was eligible this year as a Super 2). So even though next season will be his age-31 season, he will still be cost-controlled.

And he’s still a decently effective reliever; with a 3.47 ERA in 59.2 innings and a devastating .672 OPS allowed to righties, he’s a valuable weapon out of Don Mattingly’s bullpen.

J.P. Howell, RP

Howell signed a one-year, $2.85 million deal this offseason, but he has pitched very well (2.24 ERA in 52.1 innings) and there’s no reason the Dodgers wouldn’t be interested in having him back. And given their financial clout, the idea that they get outbid for a reliever they want doesn’t seem plausible.

Chris Withrow, RP

Withrow is another cheap reliever in his pre-arbitration years, and he has been a productive middle reliever: he’s pitched in just 18 games but has put up a serviceable 29/8 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Jose Dominguez, RP

Dominguez is a flamethrowing right-hander who was unimpressive in his short stint (four strikeouts, three walks in 8.1 innings) but shows enough potential and is still pre-arb, so he will likely get a chance to prove his worth.

This spot will be up for grabs in spring training, and Dominguez will have to battle other minor leaguers and non-roster invitees for the job.

Notable Omissions: Josh Beckett, Chad Billingsley, Andre Ethier

Beckett has missed most of this year, and although he has resumed throwing recently, earlier reports that his career was in jeopardy raised general doubts about his ability to come back.

Billingsley had Tommy John surgery in late April and given the 12-month recovery, he won’t be back before the season starts.

Ethier is, I’m sure, the controversial name left off this list. But I expect him to be traded. Puig has shown this year that he can’t be kept off the field, Crawford is still due about $80 million, and Kemp is both due about $120 million and is the only center fielder on the roster. For those reasons, Ethier is the most likely to be dealt. In addition, his hot streak at the end of this season will have raised his value to higher levels than it was at any point in the past couple years.