Scouting The AFC East

Sometimes it’s all about location. If the San Diego Chargers played in any division expect the AFC West in 2008, they would have missed the playoffs. Instead they knocked off the Indianapolis Colts in a home playoff game (despite the Colts having a better record) and lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers in the next round. Had the Arizona Cardinals been in any division except the NFC West, they wouldn’t have had a home playoff game. But the Cards won two home playoff games and advanced to their first Super Bowl. And if the New England Patriots been in any NFC division, they would have made the playoffs. Divisional match-ups play a pivotal role in determining who goes to the playoffs and who watches them on TV. The 2009 AFC East should be one of the toughest in the NFL. The Jets went 4-2 in divisional play in 2008, but lost two divisional home games and should have lost a third. The Jets will have to do better if they want to advance in 2009, but the task is even more daunting this year.
    The Miami Dolphins shocked the football world with a ten-game turnaround, improving from 1-15 in 2007 to 11-5 in 2008 to win the AFC East on the last day of the season. It might have been the best day of Chad Pennington’s life on the gridiron as he won the game in front of his former home fans at the Meadowlands against a spiraling Jets team. Pennington gave the Dolphins instant stability at the quarterback position and a much needed veteran presence in rookie head coach Tony Sparano’s locker room. It shouldn’t have been a shock to Jets fans (or Patriots fans for that matter) to see Bill Parcells perform yet another franchise turnaround, albeit this time from his executive suite.
    The Dolphins also brought back the wildcat offense, and its success has spurned a fad across the NFL as many teams are now looking for ways to incorporate the attack in their playbooks. But the Dolphins will still lead by example with the addition of Patrick White, the former West Virginia quarterback that should be perfect for the formation. White can be a weapon of mass destruction to NFL defense as he can run or pass out of the backfield, making life a lot easier for Pennington.
    The reacquisition of Jason Taylor gives the Dolphins a fearsome pass rush. Joey Porter finished second in the NFL with 17.5 sacks in 2008, proving he still has something left in the tank and Channing Crowder is turning into a suitable replacement for Zach Thomas at linebacker. The Dolphins led the league last year in turnover ratios at +17, a credit to both their tough defense and efficient offense.
    This year should be a lot tougher for the Dolphins. Aside from the fact the won’t be able to sneak up an anyone like they did in 2008 (a team coming off a one-win season can do that) they play a much harder schedule in 2009. They actually have the toughest schedule in the entire league based on 2008 winning percentages at .594. While the Jets play third place teams Cincinnati and Oakland, the Dolphins will have to play first place teams Pittsburgh and San Diego.
    The biggest concern for Miami has to be Pennington. As great as Chad was last season, he is one of the most inconsistent quarterbacks in the league. You don’t win the Comeback Player of the Year award twice if you haven’t had a couple of awful seasons. Pennington has never played a full schedule for two consecutive seasons. Nor have his teams made the playoffs in two consecutive years. After his breakout season in 2002 when he led the Jets to the AFC East title (22 TDs, six INTs, 68.9 completion % and 104.2 QB rating) he was injured in the preseason in 2003 and was never the same during his 10 starts that season (13 TDs, 12 INTs, 63.6 completion % and 82.9 QB rating). He bounced back in 2004 to lead the Jets back to the playoffs, but was knocked out of 2005 during week three. He once again bounced back for his first CPOY award in 2006, but injuries took him out for much of 2007. There is something about odd-numbered years the make Pennington unable to stay on the field. If he can’t break this cycle, and there is no evidence to say that he will, the Dolphins could free fall to the bottom of the AFC East in 2009.
    The New England Patriots hope for a comeback story of their own with Tom Brady. After leading the Patriots to within one win of a perfect season in 2007, Brady suffered a knee injury during the first game of the 2008 season. Matt Cassel stepped in and despite have never started a pro or college game led the Patriots to an 11-5 record, falling just short of the playoffs. Brady is expected to be back and ready to go to start the 2009 season and the NFL is going to have to see his diminished play before they will believe it. Belichick and Brady have combined to go 86-26 with three Super Bowls in seven years with Brady as the starter. As much as in makes Jets fans cringe, 2008 was probably the Jets best shot to knock off the Patriots. With Brady healthy the Pats are the favorites to win the AFC East in 2009 and will be the pick of many to win the Super Bowl.
    Many of Brady’s weapons will be right where he left them. The Patriots offensive line is intact and is still one of the league’s best. Randy Moss and Wes Welker each put up career numbers playing with Brady in 2007. Benjamin Watson is a reliable tight end that can catch and block. But Brady will have a few new weapons in his arsenal with the addition of veterans Fred Taylor and Joey Galloway. Neither is in the prime of their careers, but in New England they are in a situation where they don’t have to be the focal point of the offense and can just be a cog in the Belichick/Brady machine, they can excel. Taylor joins a deep rushing unit that also includes Laurence Maroney, Kevin Faulk, Sammy Morris and BenJarvus Green-Ellis, all of whom are capable of putting up a 100-yard game on any given Sunday. The NFL is steadily moving away from the feature-back system to a running back by committee and the Pats have the deepest chart in the NFL. The addition of Galloway to Moss and Welker gives Brady a speedy deep threat that will require attention from opposing defensive backs and keep everyone in the Pats receiving corps just a little more open.
    The Patriots defense has been the driving force of their three championship teams and is still one of the most feared in the NFL. Much of that is due to the scheming of Belichick and his staff, but they also have some great players on the field. Jerod Mayo is going to be force in the middle of the Patriots defense for a long time after making a seamless transition from college to the pros. Adalius Thomas is one of the most consistent outside rushers in the league and is a perfect fit for this defense. Vince Wilfork is a beast up the middle and often requires two lineman to be neutralized. Brandon Meriweather and James Sanders are turning into a formidable safety tandem and new cornerbacks Leigh Bodden and Shawn Springs make a top-notch secondary.
    The big X-factor for the Patriots will be their hunger. They were a defensive stop away from being 19-0 in 2007 only to see their MVP quarterback go down for the season in week one in 2008. Brady, Belichick and the rest of the Patriots are undoubtedly looking at 2009 as a chance to make up for the missed opportunities of the past few seasons. Everyone in that organization believes they are the best, and they often play like it. They all must know that opportunities like this don’t come around often in the NFL, and they will be sure to capitalize. It would a shock to the NFL if anyone but the Patriots wins the AFC East crown in 2009.
    The Buffalo Bills had the noisiest off season, and that noise will be around all year long. Terrell Owens surprised many in the football world by signing a one-year deal with the Bills. How he will impact the team on the field remains to be see, but the media will be playing close attention to everything Owens does, says and thinks up in Orchard Park. TO is even bringing his own camera crew as part of his VH1 reality show. Owens adds depth to an already good receiving corps led by Lee Evans, Roscoe Parrish and Josh Reed. Owens’ 69 receptions, 1,052 yards and 10 touchdowns were far from his career highs, but they are still good numbers for any receiver. Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson are a formidable one-two punch out of the backfield and Lynch should only improve with two years under his belt.
    The big question about the Bills is at the quarterback position. Trent Edwards looked good in parts of last season, but it is still unclear just how successful he can be at this level. Edwards had only 11 touchdown passes in 14 games, and threw two touchdowns in a game just once all season. The Bills as an organization have tremendous confidence in Edwards and will give him a long leash to make the next step in 2009.
    Owens will play a pivotal role in Edwards’ development. Owens’ relationships with his quarterbacks, Jeff Garcia, Donovan McNabb and Tony Romo, have all gotten off to great starts before ultimately being ripped to shreds. That could bode well for the Bills in 2009, especially since Owens is only signed through this season. But if Edwards can’t get the ball to Owens and costs the Bills a few games, the relationship could be over before it starts. The loss of left tackle Jason Peters won’t help Edwards much either if the Bills can’t find a suitable replacement to protect Edwards’ blind side.
    The Bills defense has been steady during recent years. The cornerback duo of Terrence McGee and Leodis McKelvin is the fastest in the league. Marcus Stroud is an immovable object in the middle of the defensive line and allows pass rusher Aaron Schobel to rack up sacks. Keith Ellison, Kawika Mitchell and Paul Posluszny are a young and dangerous linebacker trio. The Bills won their first four games and five of their first six in 2008 but they faltered down the stretch, finishing 7-9 and in last place in the AFC East. They are the only AFC East team not to win the division this decade and have not won a playoff game since 1995. Hopes are high in Buffalo and if things don’t improve a lot of changes will be made.
    The Jets will have their work cut out for them in the divisional play. Here is what the AFC East will look like after all is said and done in 2009 (remember this is still May and a lot can change, including my opinions):
New England Patriots    13-3
Buffalo Bills                  9-7
New York Jets              8-8
Miami Dolphins              6-10