Full Week 1 Stat Predictions for the Minnesota Vikings Offense

With the opener fast approaching, Minnesota Vikings fans are eager to make predictions not just about the team as a whole, but individual players. The rise of fantasy football has made individual statistic predictions all the more relevant as fans make sit-start decisions for their rosters.

While no one can realistically strive to be completely accurate, there are some general guidelines fans can use to make predictions about their favorite players, including general knowledge about scheme, history and talent.

When the Vikings visit the Detroit Lions at Ford Field, they won't do anything other than try to accumulate points, but along the way they'll likely hit a number of statistical markers.

Quarterbacks

Christian Ponder: 225 yards, 1 touchdown, 0 interceptions, 93.8 passer rating

The only player worth listing at this position is Christian Ponder, who should play the entire game if all goes well.

The largest limiting factor for Ponder in this game will be interior pressure, something he's done poorly against in the past. Those 225 yards would be a career high against the Lions for him, and a more diverse passing game will help in its ability to make sure the Vikings can get those yards.

Last year, he didn't have much to do in order to secure wins against the Lions, relying both times on the play of those around him to make his job easier. It won't likely be as easy this next time around, given how difficult it is to open as many games as they have with the lead.

If that's the case, they'll rely on him to throw the ball a bit more against a revitalized secondary that will benefit from the signing of Glover Quin and the health of Louis Delmas.

The Lions haven't done a very good job, despite their frequent efforts, at producing talent at the cornerback position and rookie Darius Slay won't likely solve that problem right away, especially for the first game of the season.

The Vikings passing offense is a good fit against the Detroit defense, likely to play as much off-man coverage as they did last year, which is somewhat vulnerable to the short passing options Ponder and offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave prefer.

Per Pro Football Focus (subscription required) Ponder threw for 2.7 yards per attempt worse under pressure than he did in a clean pocket. He won't likely have many clean pockets against a defense that orients itself around putting pressure on the quarterback with its front four more than anything else.

Because of that, he likely won't crack 7.0 yards per attempt but neither will the Detroit secondary be able to limit him extraordinarily much. He should be able to move the chains, even if that doesn't mean explosive plays.

Running Backs

Adrian Peterson: 90 rushing yards, 10 receiving yards and 1 touchdown

Ninety yards isn't a rushing total anyone should be ashamed of, although it would be a bit lower than the standards Peterson has set for himself not just this season but throughout his career. While he'll be a solid running back against an average rushing defense spearheaded by the underrated Stephen Tulloch, a few factors will limit him from a 100-yard rushing game.

The first is the absence of Jerome Felton, perhaps the best lead blocker Adrian has ever had. Per ESPN, Peterson averaged "only" 4.6 yards per carry when Felton sat on the sidelines, a significant break from the 6.9 yards per carry he earned with the Pro Bowl fullback lead blocking.

A committee of Rhett Ellison, rookie Zach Line and even tight ends like John Carlson and Kyle Rudolph to replace Felton's assistance, but none are quite as good as he is.

Ellison still does better as an in-line blocker than he does as a lead blocker and he still has more to learn about reading blocks and taking on defenders on the move. Line is functionally a convert from the primary running role he had at Southern Methodist University and is still getting his feet out from under him in the role the Vikings want him for.

The second limiting factor will be that the Lions will more likely commit to explosive plays than consistent yardage and may not stack the box as frequently as Peterson saw from teams last year in an attempt to trade efficiency in preventing short gains in favor of a chance to prevent longer gains.

Once again, PFF found Peterson nearly doubled the field in the number of runs above 15 yards with 40. The next most explosive back was Alfred Morris with 24.

Regardless, he's still the league's best running back and should produce over 80 yards.

Toby Gerhart: 15 rushing yards, 5 receiving yards

After Week 5, Toby Gerhart rushed 23 times—averaging just over two carries a game before taking an anomalous eight-carry game in Houston out of the picture. Expect Gerhart to get two or three carries at the most.

He can get involved on third down to spell Adrian Peterson, but the Vikings don't send their running backs very far in passing routes to consider him as a receiving threat.

Wide Receivers

Greg Jennings: 75 yards receiving

Greg Jennings was brought to Minnesota to add a different dimension to the passing game, and in part could help replace the production Percy Harvin brought Minnesota, even if it isn't in the same way.

Jennings could be somewhat limited in terms of his ability to bring a downfield threat as a result of the offensive scheme and even in part due to his quarterback, he still will help the offense move the ball between the 20s.

He's not quite the red-zone threat Bill Musgrave likes—Musgrave even limited Harvin in the red zone—so he may not find himself with the opportunity to score a touchdown, but that doesn't mean he won't be a valuable part of the offense.

Over his career, Jennings has averaged 68 yards a game, per Pro Football Reference but hit 78 yards a game when starting in seasons where he played more than 12 games. While it's fair to say he may have experienced a downgrade in production when changing quarterbacks, he could very well make up for it by being the team's primary receiving option on most downs.

Aside from Kyle Rudolph, there aren't a lot of players that can really steal targets from Jennings in the way that James Jones, Donald Driver, Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb could. Given that the Lions defense will be fielding relatively inexperienced corners who don't show a history of talent, Jennings certainly has the ability to be a consistent and reliable option in the passing game.

Jerome Simpson: 25 yards receiving

After Simpson returned from his suspension, he averaged just under 23 receiving yards a game. With expected improvement in the passing game and more space to work with because of Jennings, it's reasonable to expect Simpson's numbers to rise.

Unfortunately for him, a broader talent pool at receiver will not just limit his opportunities, but his production as well.

Simpson is a valuable part of the offense, but the Vikings will look to get more underneath routes working and involved because of the nature of the Lions defense, which forces quicker passes and prioritizes defending deep routes.

The former Cincinnati receiver is an intuitive route-runner, but not necessarily precise. While he'll eat up cushion against the soft man coverage Detroit will show, he won't be on the marker in the shorter and intermediate routes the Vikings will want to throw.

Expect Simpson to produce more against zone defenses or tighter coverage schemes.

Jarius Wright: 40 yards receiving

A slot threat who should take advantage of the fact that the Lions don't have a great defender in the nickel in Bill Bentley, a corner who has shown moments of brilliance at times but has largely been underwhelming.

If Wright can start getting Bentley turned around, it will be a long night for the Lions. As it is, Wright should do well enough to come on as the third receiver and produce big yardage without taking a ton of snaps.

His improvement over camp has been extraordinary, and he's shown he's not only an able receiver in the NFL, but one with the potential to start taking headlines.

Tight Ends

Kyle Rudolph: 50 yards, 1 touchdown

One of the more productive tight ends of last year, Rudolph amassed his amazing touchdown total (fully half of all of Christian Ponder's passing touchdowns with nine) in part due to an enormous catch radius and excellent play design.

In some ways, this total could be considered a fluke. Mike Clay's research into how often receivers and tight ends are targeted and where they happen to catch the ball has produced a measure of "chance" in terms of touchdown production.

Generally speaking, receivers targeted near the goal line more than anywhere else are much more likely to produce touchdowns and have an "expected" touchdown total.

Despite Rudolph's red-zone relevance, his low target total and lack of targets elsewhere suggest his touchdown total overall may have been a fluke. More than likely, however, the data could imply that Rudolph is simply a superior red-zone target than the average targeted receiver.

His ability to create matchup problems with linebackers and safeties are a big part of this discrepancy between his projected numbers and his actual production. Expect that to continue, as Detroit's starting safeties—Louis Delmas and Glover Quin—are 5'11" and 6'0", respectively, a far cry from Rudolph's 6'6" frame.

The linebackers are no better, as none of the starting linebackers is over 6'1".

Rudolph still needs work making sure he can make waves outside the red zone, but he certainly can be a reliable target for Ponder when they need to score.

John Carlson and Rhett Ellison: 10 yards

Last year, the two tight ends combined for 108 total yards over the season, which is disappointing for Carlson, but likely expected for Ellison.

Carlson came to the Vikings with a contract worth $5 million a year on average, something the Vikings did well to restructure after a year of frustration.

Ellison was drafted to engage in a hybrid fullback/tight end role largely with blocking responsibilities and was not tasked too much to catch the ball.

The former USC athlete will likely see an expanded role, as he has throughout my observations in camp. More to the point, John Carlson's ability to stay with the team injury-free throughout the offseason will allow him to develop chemistry with Ponder.

It's a good bet one of them will make at least a minor contribution in the passing game come Sunday.