Give The Raiders a Break (Kinda)

Once again, a devout Charger fan dares to cross the line and comment on the Raiders...

The “insanity” of the Bey pick has been somewhat overblown for at least a couple key reasons:

The top WR’s in this year’s draft were all in a pretty tight group, representing a variety of skill sets to teams looking for one (e.g. Crabtree for routes and polish, Maclin for speed and the return game homerun threat, Bey for deep speed and H-W-S package, etc.).  I believe (and many experts endorse) that if a guy is slated to go in the next round, then its tough to call him a reach. 

Fans too often assume that trading down is something that can be done at any time, allowing teams to pinpoint a player at EXACTLY the pick at which he’s a value.  We can all get carried away with thinking that if a guy was supposed to go 20 picks later, then our favorite team should have hauled in a bounty of picks to slide down and get him just in time.  That kind of opportunity is not always available, and just because it wasn't doesn't make the pick a reach.

For whatever reasons (some legit, some not), the Raiders are becoming an easy team to take a swipe at.  Other GM’s and coaches are given the benefit of the doubt more easily that the Raiders in recent years. One need only check out the coverage of A.J. Smith’s pick of Larry English in the first round to catch several lines like “A.J. must know what he’s doing.” 

Granted, the draft hasn’t been terribly kind and the records have suffered, but no one disputed the Huff and Gallery picks when made, so it’s not like the “crazy” picks have been to blame for everything.

Now before I get kicked out of the Charger Backer Fan Club, I do think criticism of the pick is warranted to some extent, and here's why:

Draft history for WR’s in the first round 

A recent story on ESPN.com discussed in great detail the relatively weak history of WR’s drafted in the first round.  Of the 40 taken in the first round over the past 10 years, 16 are already out of football.  Some might say that 10 years is a long time and some of that attrition could simply be due to the average career of an NFL player, but that doesn’t explain everything. 

I don’t have the stats on OL, DL, and other positions, but I would bet my house they are much better overall.  The success of high WR picks like Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson belie the fact that it’s pretty rare to hit on a WR taken so early.

The often over-inflated importance of WR’s in general

My friends have heard me ask this a million times….Who were the WR’s on the last 8-10 Super Bowl teams?  Sure, you have guys like Santonio Holmes, Torry Holt and Larry Fitzgerald (relatively high picks), but you have a litany of Deion Branches, David Pattens, Hines Wards and whoever the hell the Ravens had at WR several years back. 

A lot of things need to happen to produce a successful pass, much less a consistent passing game, and the WR is just the last of those elements.  I think of them a lot like Billy Beane thinks of closers: to focus overly on who gets the last three outs IF you have a lead is to take focus off who gets the OTHER 24 outs and how your hitters use THEIR 27 outs to get you the lead in the first place.  Just because it’s more visible doesn’t mean important.

Other needs

The Raiders haven’t been able to stop the run or consistently put heavy pressure on QB’s for the past few years.  These weaknesses have put pressure on an incredibly talented back seven. 

The O-line has also been a year-to-year patchwork to some extent, particularly in delivering the kind of pass-blocking that the Raiders’ traditional deep passing game requires.  Yet the team has passed on OT’s and DT’s the past couple years that would have clearly helped shore up these areas in pursuit of shiny skill players.

Finally, and most important, what does this pick signal about the inflexibility of the Raider offensive system? 

Taking the fastest skill player in the draft two years running seems to point to a continuation of the Raider offensive philosophy that seems outdated.  I was noting recently that Matt Cassel is focused on improving his deep balls for the upcoming season because he was LAST in average yards per pass last season. 

Here’s a young QB (whose most “dangerous” weapon last year was a deep threat WR) making his first start since high school WITHOUT the benefit of No. 1 QB reps in preseason or a consistent running game who goes 11-5 in what proved to be a tough division last year.  I can’t think of a better illustration of how adjusting your scheme to your personnel is the best way to be effective. 

It seems to me that the Raiders continue to try to fill out the personnel that fits the scheme they want rather than the other way around.  Forget for a moment about whether or not that philosophy is the best one for today’s game…the real concern is that with the NFL’s parity-driven player personnel model, it’s almost impossible to sit back and keep acquiring players that fit a scheme precisely as you would like them to.

That puts a LOT of pressure on acquiring the specific players you think will fit, and maybe that more than anything is what has lead to the splashy free agent signings and draft selections that leave fans and experts scratching their heads.