How Much Will Jordy Nelson's Injury Really Affect Green Bay Packers Offense?

With their depth at receiver diminished and the results from last season providing a telling story, the Green Bay Packers likely can't afford to be without Jordy Nelson for any significant stretch in 2013. 

According to Packers head coach Mike McCarthy, there's a chance that Nelson could miss the start of the regular season after undergoing surgery on his knee. 

"Jordy Nelson had a procedure done yesterday on his knee, and he will not be ready for the rest of of training camp," McCarthy said Tuesday, via the Packers' official site. "Our hope is for Jordy to be ready for the season opener at San Francisco."

ESPN's Adam Schefter later reported that Nelson's surgery, which carries a typical four- to six-week recovery timeline, was needed to repair nerve damage in the same knee that has bothered the receiver at various times since his days at Kansas State. When the knee flared up again in training camp, Nelson decided to go ahead and get the correction done now instead of playing through the issue in 2013. 

With Nelson's role in the passing offense never more important than now, the Packers can only hope that the sixth-year receiver returns for Week 1 and that his knee remains healthy and issue-free for the rest of the season. 

While it's rarely been a problem in previous seasons, Green Bay now lacks the kind of deep, talented receiving pool that can sustain a long absence from Nelson or any other of its top three receivers. Losses this offseason are mostly to blame.

Greg Jennings, who caught 425 passes for 6,537 yards and 56 touchdowns over seven years as the the offense's do-it-all receiver, left to sign a free-agent deal with the Minnesota Vikings this spring. But even when he went down for eight games last season to injury, the Packers remained a dominant passing team in large part because the offense could lean on the likes of Nelson, James Jones and Randall Cobb in Green Bay's heavily used three-receiver sets. 

Losing Jennings takes the security blanket of four quality receivers out of the equation. 

While much less of a loss, the Packers also said goodbye this offseason to veteran Donald Driver, who retired from the NFL after 14 seasons in Green Bay. He caught just eight passes last season but was a reliable veteran who could play any of the receiver positions in a pinch. 

The depth behind the top three is now much more a question mark.

By all accounts, second-year receiver Jarrett Boykin appears to have the inside track to becoming the team's new No. 4 receiver. While his story (he went from a rookie tryout to being selected to the 53-man roster) in 2012 was inspiring, and early returns from training camp this summer have been encouraging, he's still mostly an unknown. As a rookie, he caught just five passes for 27 yards.

In the event that a receiver like Nelson was lost, Boykin would become a de facto starter as the offense's No. 3 receiver. In 2012, the Packers used three or more receivers on 68 percent of their offensive snaps, according to both the 2013 Football Outsiders Almanac and Pro Football Focus.

Behind Boykin is a bunch of unknowns, including seventh-round picks Charles Johnson and Kevin Dorsey (neither of whom has stayed healthy in training camp) and undrafted free agents such as Tyrone Walker and Myles White.

And while Cobb (80 catches, 954 yards, eight touchdowns in 2012) and Jones (64/784/14) would still represent a formidable one-two tandem without Nelson available, the Packers have struggled at times without No. 87 in the lineup. 

Thanks to hamstring and ankle injuries, Nelson missed four games (Jacksonville, Detroit, at Chicago and Tennessee) and the majority of a fifth (Arizona) last season.

Over the five games Nelson was absent from, the Packers averaged just 229.8 passing yards a contest. In contrast, Green Bay averaged 263.6 passing yards in the 11 other regular season games with Nelson available.

Even quarterback Aaron Rodgers felt the ripple effects, as he failed to crack a 100.0 passer rating in three of the five games. Keep in mind, only eight times during the 2012 season did the Packers quarterback finish a game under a 100.0 rating. 

The statistical drop-off stems in part from losing Nelson's unique skill set. 

While a big receiver at 6'3" and 215 pounds, Nelson has deceptive long speed that allows him to get behind cornerbacks in single coverage. There have been numerous examples of Rodgers finding Nelson after he's created just inches of space on a vertical route.

Nelson's touchdown grab to open Super Bowl XLV might be his most famous example of this kind of play:

A nearly identical connection between the two occurred last season during Green Bay's rout of the Houston Texans:

However, Nelson is much more than just a vertical threat. Considering he came into the NFL the same season Rodgers was taking over as Packers quarterback, Nelson has since developed a sound chemistry with his signal-caller, especially on back-shoulder attempts.

And as Bleacher Report's Aaron Nagler told me, Nelson brings a rare ability to turn quick-hit passes into big plays. 

"We've become very used to seeing Jordy work up the field, but what doesn't get talked about a lot is how dangerous he is on those 'smoke' throws, where Rodgers sees the cornerback playing off coverage," Nagler said. "Rodgers will rise and fire a bullet to Jordy on the outside and Jordy does the rest, usually by overpowering the corner with a stiff-arm." 

According to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), Nelson caught eight of these passes for two touchdowns during his breakout 2011 season.

Possibly the best example of the quick-hit success can be seen that same year, when Nelson caught a quick hit from Rodgers before stiff-arming Minnesota Vikings cornerback Cedric Griffin and scoring a touchdown. 

The Packers must now hope that Nelson's unique set of abilities will be available in both Week 1 and beyond. 

For many years, Green Bay could have dealt with an injury at the receiver position by simply throwing one of its other talented pass-catchers into the mix. While that may still be true, the aforementioned depth is now being tested in 2013.

Past results without Nelson in the lineup suggest the Packers need him healthy to compete in a rugged NFC.