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Fantasy Football Draft Strategy 2013: Definitive Manual for Every Fantasy GM

Andrew GardaJun 8, 2018

With training camp underway and preseason action about to launch, it's time for fantasy drafts to get underway as well.

Each league has its own variations which will change your approach, but overall there are some things that translate across leagues.

So the following is a list of strategies and angles of attack which should be kept in mind as you put your team together on draft day.

As always, remember that there are exceptions to every rule. We'll talk about some of those in the slides as well—when to ignore the otherwise good strategies laid out here.

Wait on Quarterbacks

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I've said before that Aaron Rodgers is the only quarterback to consider in the first round, but I won't be taking him there.

In fact, the top five quarterbacks listed in that linked video will probably not be on my teams this year, unless they drop.

Why? Because there is far too much value after those top five players.

If you look at that list—Rodgers, Drew Brees, Cam Newton, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning—they are absolutely all guys who you'd love on your team.

However, think of the guys right behind them. Matt Ryan, Matt Stafford, Andrew Luck, Colin Kaepernick, Robert Griffin III and Russell Wilson all have the potential to be top-five quarterbacks and you can get them later in your draft.

Meanwhile, you can fatten your roster up at other areas where the talent isn't as deep or whose production is more of an impact in your league.

You can even wait longer and run a quarterback by committee.

Pairing guys like Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger or Andy Dalton with up and comers like Ryan Tannehill or guys who have some new upside in Jay Cutler or Philip Rivers will be a very effective way to go as well.

While Manning or Dalton won't put up tremendous numbers, they will have some great matchups, as will guys like Tannehill. Someone like Cutler is attractive because the potential for a big year is there in the new offense, but isn't safe enough to where you want to rely just on him.

Pairing two of these guys together gives you flexibility while you build up the rest of your team.

So wait on your quarterback.

You don't need to burn a pick in the first three or four rounds to get your quarterback spot taken care of.

One Kicker Is Pretty Much Just Like Another

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We'll just get this out of the way quickly.

Yes, some kickers are a bit more accurate and some offenses will score more, thereby giving a kicker more chances for fantasy points.

That said, who the best kicker is changes almost year to year—wildly so—and the majority of kickers fall around the same amount of production year to year.

We also know that at the end of the season, a kicker isn't what got you to a championship.

Why waste anything but a pick at the end of the draft for a kicker?

Sure, punters (and kickers) are people too, but with apologies to NFLN's Rich Eisen, they aren't ever fantasy studs.

Draft a Quarterback Who Can Run, Not a Running Quarterback

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There's a not-so-subtle difference between a quarterback who can run and a running quarterback.

One is a guy who is just as comfortable in the pocket as he is on the move. He can pass effectively both ways and will gain you yards on the ground, though he's just as effective as he is in the air.

The other guy will pull the ball down early and scramble without finishing his reads.

Colin Kaepernick, Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III appear to be the former. We don't know right now which EJ Manuel or Geno Smith might be. Rookies are often the latter.

It's not completely one way or the other, but there are definitely tendencies.

However, the strength of having Griffin, Kaepernick, Russell Wilson or Cam Newton is the combination of points.

Take Cam Newton, rated by many as a top-five fantasy quarterback and someone who ended up as the fourth or fifth-best fantasy quarterback in leagues last season.

His 741 yards are great, but his 3,869 yards passing was the 13th-highest amount in the league and more than respectable.

Yes, he needs to get his passing touchdowns up from 19, but the eight touchdowns on the ground help bolster his numbers.

On the opposite side is Michael Vick. It's hard to say where some of his seasons would have ended up in terms of passing yards because he so rarely finishes them (a whole separate issue), but he's rarely been above 3,000 yards.

If he's not running the ball for you, he's often not scoring. It will be interesting to see if Vick can change that in Chip Kelly's new offense, assuming he wins the starting job.

So make sure you fully look at a quarterback's numbers and read up on how he got where he ended up.

Make sure he's a guy who can get you the best of both worlds, a quarterback who can pass when the run gets stopped up instead of someone who fails to provide yards when he can't run.

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Use Running Backs Stuck in a Committee to Solidify Bench Depth

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Nobody is grabbing Darren Sproles, Mark Ingram or Pierre Thomas as their primary fantasy running back.

However, all three have plenty to offer for a fantasy lineup.

The running back by committee (or RBBC) used to strike terror into the hearts of fantasy GMs everywhere, but now smart owners have come to realize they represent something other than an indecisive head coach.

More options.

Yes, there are tons of pure starting running backs, but there are also plenty of profitable RBBCs as well.

Teams like the Green Bay Packers, Denver Broncos, Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots, Cincinnati Bengals, St. Louis Rams and the aforementioned Saints all provide multiple fantasy-worthy players.

Use these teams to bolster your roster. They aren't your primary fantasy back, save during a bye week. However, they are guys you can wait on a little bit who will pay off repeatedly over the course of the season.

Plus, if someone else gets hurt, they'll get more carries, raising their ceiling.

Go Deep with Receivers on Your Roster

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You can never—ever—have too many wide receivers on your fantasy team.

It's good to have a Calvin Johnson, Victor Cruz or Demaryius Thomas.

You can't beat production like theirs.

Most leagues require between two and four receivers though—sometimes with a flex that can be used for a receiver—so one guy isn't going to win you a championship if the rest of the roster can't hold water.

So you need to go deep.

Demaryius Thomas is nice, but if you miss him, what about Eric Decker?

Calvin Johnson gone before your first pick? Nate Burleson could be a good third or fourth receiver for you.

No Victor Cruz? Grab Rueben Randle.

Don't just get focused on the top receiver on a team. You need as many quality receivers as you can get, so you need to look past the first—often even the second—receiver on a team.

Of course, some of these guys can be a tad inconsistent at times (second and third receivers are often second and third options), so you need a lot of them.

Which should be the aim anyway. If you have to start more players at that position than at any other, that part of the roster should be deepest.

As a sidenote, in a point per reception league (PPR), this can be even more vital. You want to be able to use all your potential receiver slots to their full potential, so having multiple guys to plug in allows you to use the hot hand.

After all, in PPR, if you have two guys who get you 50-60 yards, you want the one who took more catches to get there.

Avoid Injury-Plagued Players

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Now, let's start by acknowledging that there are exceptions, like Rob Gronkowski. Guys who can do so much with fewer games that they remain elite fantasy players at their positions.

They are few and far between.

More often than not, they end up like Michael Vick, who we talked about in the "Draft a Quarterback Who Can Run, Not a Running Quarterback" section.

Vick can't stay healthy. Let's stop excusing it and acknowledge that he's had all of one full season (2006) and since then (and his return from jail), hasn't come close. He's been a top-10 fantasy quarterback just twice in his career, only once since he returned from exile. Vick can produce wildly different stats too—landing anywhere from the No. 11 overall fantasy quarterback to the No. 27 (subscription link).

San Diego Chargers running back Ryan Mathews is another guy who can't stay healthy. In three years he hasn't stayed on the field for a full 16 games and has only broken the 1,000-yard mark once in his career.

Now he has Danny Woodhead in town and it looks as though the Chargers could be going with a committee approach.

All of which can be attributed to Mathews' inability to stay on the field.

Which is why both he and Vick will never be on my fantasy teams.

If a guy can't stay on the field, he can't stay on your roster.

Don't Follow Runs

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It happens during fantasy draft, owners see it happen and yet every season, they fall for it.

One guy picks up a tight end, then another. And another.

Soon you have five or six picks in a row (or close to it) at the same exact position.

Follow the leader? Heck no.

When a run develops, head in another direction, especially early in a draft.

This is where previous sections on getting deep benches at a position like wide receivers. You're not panicking because you know you can build depth. You know you can find good players at whatever position is having a run. You've planned for it by having a list of guys you'd platoon and use as a quarterback by committee or by rotating in and out of the lineup at tight end.

And so while everyone runs after the position du jour, you grab value elsewhere. You get the best player available and run.

Don't panic. Don't get sucked in, even if you're worried about getting left behind.

Because there is always a second or third option to go after later, especially as you realize that the people who already were in on the run now won't be drafting those positions as heavily later because they've got their guy.

So you may even be able to wait longer to address that position due to there being less competition.

And if you start a run, just sit back and enjoy the chaos.

Find the Guy Nobody in Your League Knows About

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This section could also be called "do your research."

If you're reading this—heck if you're reading about football and have been for months—you've already been on the ball. You know how all the stars are doing, the general status of position battles in camp and who is already hurt.

Now go deeper.

Go read some depth charts and pick out some names in the middle of the pack who you don't know about. See who they are and how camp is going. Are they guys doing well? Can that translate to a surge as we hit the season?

Everyone has talked about how Cecil Shorts might be in for a big year for the Jacksonville Jaguars with Justin Blackmon out, but not everyone knows Ace Sanders is killing it in camp.

We know Rob Gronkowski is banged up, but do you know about Zach Sudfeld?

If Steve Johnson is hurt, do you know if that helps rookie Robert Woods or second-year receiver T.J. Graham? Even if it doesn't, which guy might end up as the receiver next to Johnson when he's back?

Fantasy studs are great. They're necessary. They also don't win championships themselves. You usually don't have more than one—maybe two—per team in a redraft league.

So you need guys with upside, guys nobody is talking about.

Those are the guys who often make the difference in you winning a championship.

Pace Your Beer Intake

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Now, if this is just a friendly, "buddies-hanging-out" or "for-pride-only" league, by all means get blasted.

If there's cash—or any significant reward—on the line, don't get blitzed during or before Round 1.

By all means—imbibe. It's part of the fun, especially at a live draft.

But if you want to win, pace yourself.

Getting hammered can be fun, but let's be honest—occasionally we make some awful decisions while drunk.

And hey, if you don't care, that's fine.

But if you want to win, staying relatively sober is the way to go. Maybe a healthy buzz.

If you think you can't trust yourself, drink heavier beer or what one may call "sipping booze" like a nice scotch or whiskey.

Hey, splurge on the good stuff so you'll make it last.

And whatever you do, avoid any shots as long as possible.

That way lies madness.

Check the News

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Keep one eye on the television, Twitter or any other football news feed while you draft.

Every year people draft during preseason games. It makes sense, right? A little football while you draft is a nice addition to a fun event.

And every year someone isn't paying attention as a player they've targeted tears an ACL.

This year, you aren't even safe when games aren't being played, as guys seem to be getting hurt at a rapid rate (just ask the Green Bay Packers).

Keep an eye on the news feed while you draft. Sure, a guy might get destroyed the day after you draft him, but that can't be helped.

Getting a guy an hour after he tore ligaments in his knee?

Totally avoidable.

Andrew Garda is a member of the Pro Football Writers Association. He is also a member of the fantasy football staff at Footballguys.com and the NFL writer at CheeseheadTV.com. You can follow him at @andrew_garda on Twitter.

Follow These Rules—Except When You Shouldn't

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All these strategies laid out here? You should follow them.

Until you shouldn't.

There are exceptions to every one of these rules.

Frankly, if Drew Brees falls well past his ADP, you ignore the "Wait on a Quarterback" slide. If the only running back by committee is the New York Jets, no, that's probably not one to grab pieces of. Every once in a while if you come up early in a run, the right guy makes sense to grab.

Ultimately, a draft changes with every pick of every round. Some of these strategies will be fine one minute and useless the next.

As always, flexibility in your battle plan is the way to adjust and know when to break a rule and when to follow it.

If you can't be flexible, you'll end up making mistakes which could take you all season to repair, if you can at all.

In which case, feel free to break the one on beer and alcohol intake.

You might need it.

Andrew Garda is a member of the Pro Football Writers Association. He is also a member of the fantasy football staff at Footballguys.com and the NFL writer at CheeseheadTV.com. You can follow him at @andrew_garda on Twitter.

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