Home Run Derby 2013: Forcasting Dinger Frequency of Citi Field

Don't expect to see Home Run Derby records broken at the 2013 contest. Citi Field isn't as homer-stingy as the old Astrodome, but it isn't the Rogers Centre in Toronto, either.

Using home run numbers from the regular season to predict dinger probability in the Home Run Derby is tricky. It is similar to basing a forecast on the NBA three-point shooting contest on long-distance accuracy from the regular season.

Shooting an uncontested three from a rack of balls is different than launching them as an opponent closes out to defend. The same goes for swinging at an offering from a pitcher who's trying to keep you from making solid contact. It is a different experience than swatting away against a handpicked batting-practice hurler.

With that established, take the following information for what it's worth.

(All HR stats per ESPN Home Run Tracker)

The Field

Prince Fielder, Detroit Tigers

Yoenis Cespedes, Oakland A's

Robinson Cano, New York Yankees

Chris Davis, Baltimore Orioles

David Wright, New York Mets

Michael Cuddyer, Colorado Rockies

Pedro Alvarez, Pittsburgh Pirates

Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals

How Often Do Balls Leave Citi Field?

Through Friday, Citi Field allowed the sixth-most home runs per game among National League parks and 17th-most in the majors at 1.89 per game. Obviously, there are more dangerous power hitters in the National League, but most wouldn't consider Citi Field a great home run hitters park.

This bar graph shows the total amount of home runs hit through Friday in each ballpark:

Since the New York Mets began play there in 2009, they have had just one player hit 30-plus home runs in a season. That was Ike Davis, who hit 32 in 2012.

You could attribute that to the woeful power hitting of the team, but some of it certainly has to do with the ballpark. 

How About Tape-Measure Shots?

The average distance of home runs hit at Citi Field is 399.9 feet. That's the 10th highest total in the major leagues, which could imply that the ball carries fairly well, but for whatever reason, players aren't connecting with enough regularity to raise the overall dinger numbers.

The longest home run hit at Citi Field this season came off the bat of Mets outfielder Marlon Byrd. He touched up then-Cubs reliever Carlos Marmol for this mammoth 453-foot blast.

As much as that ball was crushed, it is only the 32nd furthest home run hit this season in the majors. That gives an idea of the type of power there is in the majors these days.

The Dimensions

Region	Distance
Left	335 feet
Left-center	358 feet
Deep left-center	385 feet
Center	408 feet
Deep right-center	390 feet
Right-center	375 feet
Right	330 feet

In a Home Run Derby, you'd expect most players to be pull hitters. However, some of the participants may be slow to change their swing too much. They wouldn't want to disturb the rhythm that got them invited to the contest.

If each player gets out in front of the pitches, the dimensions could favor right-handed hitters, despite the jutted Pepsi Porch in right field.

Who Has Hit the Deepest Shots This Season?

Oakland A's slugger Yoenis Cespedes' home runs have traveled an average of 407.9 feet. He only has 15 on the season, but he hasn't hit any cheap shots.

According to this overlay provided by ESPN Home Run Tracker, all but one of his shots would have been home runs in Citi Field.

Right behind him is Colorado Rockies outfielder Michael Cuddyer, whose homers have traveled an average of 407.5 feet, but all of his long balls would have been round trippers at Citi Field.

Conclusion

What can we make of all this? Maybe nothing, but I'm going with Cespedes as the winner, with a modest total of 21 total home runs. It is hard to tell for sure, but this was still fun to research.

Follow me for sports news, rumors and spirited opinions.