Forecasting Roger Federer's Fate at Wimbledon

After a disappointing French Open showing that saw him get ousted by Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the quarterfinals, many wrote off Roger Federer at Wimbledon. Thanks to a stroke of luck, however, a semi-final berth is now a near certainty for the Swiss star.

Federer opened up the defense of his Wimbledon title in grand fashion on Monday, as he dismantled Romanian Victor Hanescu in straight sets, according to BBC Sport.

It took Fed just 69 minutes to eliminate Hanescu, as he flashed signs of the Federer of old throughout the match. Even if Federer isn't the same player that he once was, he always elevates his game at Wimbledon and is clearly among the top contenders in this tournament.

Much was made of Federer's draw heading into Wimbledon as he was seemingly saddled with the toughest of anyone. Despite Federer's status as the No. 3 seed and a seven-time Wimbledon champion, he was placed in the same quarter as No. 5 Rafael Nadal and the same half as No. 2 Andy Murray.

The expectation was that Federer would have to defeat Nadal, Murray and world No. 1 Novak Djokovic in succession in order to win his eighth Wimbledon title, but one-third of that equation has already been solved. Nadal shocked the tennis world on Monday, as he was ousted by unheralded Belgian Steve Darcis in straight sets, according to SportsCenter.

Federer still has some tough opponents to go through en route to another Wimbledon championship, but the pressure has suddenly been lessened considerably. There are no sure things in Grand Slam tournaments, as Nadal proved on Monday, but Federer is now in perfect position to reach the semis at the very least.

Federer's potential road to the semifinals suddenly doesn't look so taxing with Rafa out of the fold. He is set to take on Ukraine's Sergiy Stakhovsky in the second round, Austrian Jurgen Melzer in the third, either Spain's Nicolas Almagro or Poland's Jerzy Janowicz in the Round of 16 and American John Isner in the quarterfinals.

There are plenty of tricky players sitting in his path, but none of them are even close to the caliber of Nadal until Murray in the semis. Isner is a guy who can give Federer some problems with his big serve, but Fed is 4-1 against Isner in his career and can neutralize the American by baiting him into longer rallies.

With that in mind, the questions really don't start until a potential Federer vs. Murray showdown to reach the final. Murray holds an 11-9 career record against Federer, although 18 of those matches have come on hard courts, which is Murray's best surface by far.

They faced each other on grass twice last year, both of which occurred at Wimbledon. Federer defeated Murray in four sets to win the Wimbledon final, while Murray dismantled Federer in straight sets in the gold-medal match at the London Olympics.

In short, Federer and Murray are pretty much dead even, so it's a coin toss to determine who will reach the final and take on Djokovic in all likelihood. Federer certainly hasn't been playing his best tennis this year, but Murray is coming off a back injury that kept him out of the French Open, so it's truly a tossup at this point.

Based purely on the fact that Federer raises his level of play at Wimbledon, it's fair to say that he has the slightest of edges over Murray. Even though Murray got over the hump last year by winning Olympic gold as well as the U.S. Open, there will be a great deal of pressure on him at Wimbledon as the home fans will expect something great.

Regardless of whether Federer or Murray survive and make it to the final though, this tournament is Djokovic's to lose. He came extremely close to beating the greatest clay-court player of all time at Roland Garros, as Nadal narrowly defeated him in five sets. Djokovic also has a dream draw at Wimbledon, so he'll be fairly stress-free until the final.

Beating Federer in the final won't be easy by any means, but look for Djoker to be the fresher man and for him to win the second Wimbledon crown of his burgeoning career.

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