Predicting 2013 NBA Free Agents Bound to Bust

The list of 2013 free agents bound to bust includes players who will receive lucrative contract offers this summer. 

Those offers could range from three or four years, at $5 million annually, all the way up to max-level contracts. 

For reasons that include consistency, conditioning, shot selection and health, however, each player highlighted on this list will not live up to the compensation he is ultimately offered in terms of production.

Each free agent is ranked according to who is most likely to bust over the lifetime of the contract he is expected to receive.

No. 5: J.R. Smith, New York Knicks

I want to believe in J.R. Smith. 

I really do.

I'm just not willing to invest the years and dollars that an NBA team will eventually offer him this summer on the free-agent market. 

Smith won the NBA's Sixth Man of the Year Award and averaged 18.1 points and 5.3 rebounds during the regular season. 

The 42.2 percent he shot from the floor dipped to 33.1 percent in the playoffs, though, where Smith only averaged 14.3 points in 11 games.

According to the AP, he just declined a contract option worth $2.9 million to stay with the New York Knicks. After doing so, the 27-year-old Smith could be looking for offers that approach $7-8 million annually for upwards of three or four seasons.

Despite his unique gifts for scoring the basketball, however, Smith is not consistent enough in his overall production to warrant that type of commitment at this point in his career.

No. 4: Paul Millsap, Utah Jazz

Paul Millsap may have benefited more than we previously realized by playing alongside Al Jefferson with the Utah Jazz.

Looking back three years from now, there is a good chance this could be the narrative surrounding the decision to sign Millsap to a lucrative contract this summer.

Especially if that contract offer for Millsap approaches max-level dollars.

For the last few seasons, Millsap has been a very good NBA player for the Jazz. Despite the attention that Jefferson commands on the opposite block, however, he hasn't necessarily been a great player.

During the 2012-13 campaign, Millsap averaged 14.6 points, 7.1 rebounds and 2.6 assists on 49 percent shooting from the floor. In 2011-12, he averaged 16.6, 8.8 and 2.3 on 49.5 percent shooting. 

The issue, though, is that some team is going to pay Millsap to be great this summer when he's only capable of being good.

That team, whoever it is, will eventually regret the extent of its investment as a result.

No. 3: Andray Blatche, Brooklyn Nets

Andray Blatche won't command the type of contract offers that Paul Millsap or even J.R. Smith will be mulling over this summer. 

As an unrestricted free agent, however, expect Blatche to generate interest in the $4-5 million range annually. 

After the Washington Wizards used their amnesty clause to part ways with Blatche, he extended his career in 2012-13 by playing in all 82 games with the Brooklyn Nets during the regular season.

The 26-year-old big man averaged 10.3 points and 5.1 rebounds in only 19 minutes per night. There is always a market for a 6'11" center who can make that type of impact on the NBA level, and Blatche will be compensated for that this summer.

Based on the reasons Washington used its amnesty clause on Blatche initially, though—which included declining production, conditioning and locker room issues—the chances are good he won't live up to his next contract either.

No. 2: Monta Ellis, Milwaukee Bucks

According to the AP, Monta Ellis informed the Milwaukee Bucks that he won't be exercising his $11 million option for next season.

This will make Ellis an unrestricted free agent on July 1.

He will be looking for long-term security, as opposed to a contract that exceeds $11 million annually, and the market for Ellis could come in at around three years, $27 million.

For the team that signs Ellis to that type of contract, though, it would be a mistake. 

Despite averaging 19.2 points, six assists and 3.9 rebounds in 2012-13, Ellis did the Bucks a favor by declining his $11 million option. 

During the 2007-08 campaign, Ellis shot 53.1 percent from the floor for the Golden State Warriors. The development of his game has not matched his declining athleticism, however, and his field-goal percentage has dipped ever since. 

The 41.6 percent that Ellis shot in 2012-13 is the worst percentage of his career since he posted a mark of 41.5 as a rookie in 2005-06. 

No. 1: Andrew Bynum, Philadelphia 76ers

When Andrew Bynum was sidelined with a knee injury, ESPN reported that he further injured himself by bowling back in November. 

The All-Star center, whom the Philadelphia 76ers acquired by trading All-Star Andre Iguodala, never ended up playing a game for Philly during the 2012-13 campaign as a result of those knee injuries.

According to a June 24 report from Dan Gelston of the AP, however, Bynum has now "completed his rehabilitation from season-ending knee surgery and is set to resume basketball workouts next week."

Although Bynum sat out an entire season, there will be multiple teams tempted to invest max-contract type dollars in the 25-year-old who averaged 18.7 points and 11.8 rebounds for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2011-12. 

Whoever ultimately makes that investment, however, will do so with an extremely high chance of Bynum busting again for their team just like he did for the Sixers.