NBA Draft 2013: How Alex Len Going No. 1 Overall Would Shake Up First Round

The Cleveland Cavaliers have the potential to shake up the first round of the 2013 NBA draft if they decide to take Alex Len instead of Nerlens Noel with the No. 1 overall pick.

Many experts, including Matt Moore and Gary Parrish at CBS Sports, believe that Noel is the clear-cut favorite to get taken by Cleveland with the first pick in the draft. But as time dwindles before the Cavs are on the clock, it appears that the franchise may be looking to go in a different direction.

Jimmy Smith of NOLA.com reports that Len—and not Noel—is now likely to get taken by the Cavaliers:

Noel told Alex Kennedy of USA Today that he’ll be ready to take the court anywhere from “November to Christmas,” after undergoing surgery to repair a torn ACL in March. Even though the big man will be sidelined for a solid portion of the season, he’s still widely considered the top talent in this year’s draft class.

That being said, if Noel doesn’t go No. 1 to Cleveland and Len does instead, the teams following the Cavs are going to have to make some big decisions very quickly. Noel is a player who could help turn a franchise around, and while some teams may already be all set on the low post, they’ll still have to consider taking him.

Orlando, which holds the No. 2 pick, will certainly be intrigued by the option of adding Noel. The Magic don’t have a lot of great big men on the roster and even though Noel won’t be back until midseason, he could be a big part of the long-term plan.

The Magic will likely take the best player on the board and who the Cavs select definitely matters. Orlando could take someone like Victor Oladipo, Otto Porter or Trey Burke, among others, if Noel goes to Cleveland. But if Cleveland takes Len, Noel may be headed to Orlando.

One would assume, however, that Cleveland wants to win right away, which is why the team would go with Len with the first pick. There’s no guarantee that Orlando doesn’t feel the same way. Even if Noel is on the board when it’s time for the Magic to make their selection, Orlando could end up passing on the opportunity to take him as well. Let’s say that happens and Len and Oladipo are the top two picks.

Where does Noel eventually land?

Third—to the Washington Wizards.

In the upcoming draft, the Wizards need to fill holes at the three biggest positions: small forward, power forward and center. If Noel were to go within the first two picks, they’d likely take someone like Burke or Anthony Bennett. But with him still on the board, there would be no way that Washington would let him get by.

Noel talked to the media Saturday morning in the midst of a two-day visit to Washington and had this to say, according to the Mark Giannotto of the Washington Post:

"

Anything can happen. I’m just fortunate enough to be here in this position, so I don’t have to have a handle on it at this point. …It’s a dream come true to even be in the discussion, so to actually be picked No. 1, I’d very blessed and fortunate and definitely would just have to get right to work to exceed the expectations.

"

Noel is smart to realize that he isn’t a lock to land with the Cavs and could drop to the Wizards, if not further. Obviously he wants to be the No. 1 pick, but who doesn’t? The fact that Noel took two days to go and visit the Wizards speaks to how badly he just wants to play in the NBA, no matter where he goes in the draft.

OK, so, what happens from thereon out?

Well, things go somewhat back to normal. Charlotte and Phoenix will likely take the top players available after the Wizards take Noel. Then, there isn’t a team that’s going to be looking for strictly a big man until the back of the top 10, when Minnesota and Portland go on the clock.

We could see a couple of things happen there. Minnesota will likely have the option of selecting the likes of Cody Zeller, Kelly Olynyk, Gorgui Dieng or even Mason Plumlee, among others. Len was probably going to go to either Minnesota or Portland, so they’re the two teams that get hurt the most in this scenario.

Zeller is the next closest thing to Len, and it would be smart for Minnesota to take him. He would be a great fit to play next to Kevin Love on the low block. Portland could really flip a coin between Olynyk and Dieng—as Plumlee isn’t really top-10 material.

As you can see, Len going to the Cavs at No. 1 over Noel really only has large implications on the teams choosing second and third and then selecting at ninth and 10th. That’s still a lot of maneuvering caused by one team taking one player over another.

But hey, maybe Cleveland is just playing a trick on us and will end up taking Noel after all.