French Open 2013 Women's Semifinals: Williams vs. Errani Preview and Prediction

Serena Williams has not reached a French Open final in a decade—not since 2003. It is a glaring blemish in the history of her domination on tennis courts around the world. As she nears the end of her career at age 31, Williams wishes to amend her record on clay.

Winning this year’s title would be a good start, but first she must get by No. 5 Sara Errani during the upcoming semifinals. 

Sara Errani, who advanced to last year’s final where she lost to Maria Sharapova, also seeks to make a statement by winning this years’s title.

The feisty Italian counter-puncher must first find a way to defeat another top five player during the semifinals—this time the world No. 1 Serena Williams. 

This surface is more than likely Errani’s best chance of capturing a major title in singles. Winning the French would put her on a plateau alongside countrywoman Francesca Schiavone who also made her mark at the French Open winning the title in 2010.  

Who will win this contest? Analysis and predictions follow.

Who Has the Historic Edge?

Serena Williams is poised, ready to accomplish what she’s not managed in her brilliant career since 2003—advancing to a French Open final. Sara Errani, on the other hand, battled her way to the championship match last year to face Maria Sharapova while Williams fell in the first round in 2012.

Errani’s experience and her confidence after beating back the No. 4 seed Agnieszka Radwanska remain high. She does not doubt herself on this surface, knowing she has the wheels to outlast anybody playing the game today—much like David Ferrer on the men’s side of the draw.

Williams, the winner of 15 Grand Slam titles has enormous experience not only in reaching finals but in winning them. But this is clay, the surface where she is most vulnerable. Her power can be deadened somewhat on the soft, forgiving surface—enough so a scrambler like Errani can cause her enormous problems.

Not since Justine Henin dominated on the grounds of Stade Roland Garros for five consecutive seasons has a No. 1 seed won this tournament. The Belgian's last ascension to the French crown was in 2007. 

Since then, the No. 1 seeds have not flourished.  

Recent history favors Errani, who arrived in the finals last year. Overall success, however, points to Williams, winner of 15 Grand Slam titles. 

How Williams Has Looked so Far at Roland Garros

Serena Williams has played with unflappable determination since her first round match against world No. 83, Georgian Anna Tatishvili, winning 6-0, 6-1. She was never tested until her quarterfinal contest against former French Open champ Svetlana Kuznetsova. The Russian not only broke Williams’ serve for the first time in the tournament, but also took a set and led 2-0 in the third set before Williams rebounded. 

This year, Williams record on clay speaks for itself. Coming into her match with Kuznetsova, she had a 28 match win streak and was 20-0 on clay. With her new French coach Patrick Mouratoglou, Williams has adopted an air of calm assurance on the court, replacing the impatience of previous clay court seasons.  

So far Williams has played 11 sets, winning 10—83 games in all. She has struck 136 winners, while piling up 182 points on her serve. In total, she’s amassed 333 points during her march to the semifinals. Williams has won 24 return games. Her first serve has remained spot on as she managed to get 67.4 percent of her serves in, winning 77.8 percent of them during the first five rounds. Additionally, she’s powered in 26 aces while committing 10 double faults.  

How Errani Has Looked so Far at Roland Garros

Sara Errani has also marched pretty much unfettered through the first five rounds at Roland Garros. As a finalist a year ago, Errani definitely understands exactly what it takes to advance through formidable opposition in often difficult weather conditions. She is, after all, a seasoned clay court veteran and an outstanding doubles player.

Her most difficult match came in the fourth round against Spaniard Carla Suarez Navarro. It was a very tight contest with Errani emerging as the winner 5-7, 6-4, 6-3 after a medical time out. Errani’s quarterfinal contest saw her pitted against the No. 4 seed Agnieszka Radwanska—the winner to advance to the semifinals. 

With her typical stamina and ferocious tenacity on each and every point, Errani emerged the winner of a tough two-set contest able to counter Radwanska’s power and touch.  

Like Williams, Errani has played 11 sets, winning 10, including one tie-break. She’s been able to hit 113 winners in five rounds, amassing 362 points in total so far. The Italian has won 31 return games in five rounds. Her first serves are reliable as she placed a remarkable 87.2 percent in, winning 63.4 percent of them. She only hit one ace to date countered by only one double fault.

Both ladies are in top form.

Biggest X-Factors in the Semifinal

There is not much that can hamper Serena Williams on court because her game is built on power and consistency. As long as she controls her concentration, remaining firmly fixed on winning, she will win.  History has proven that. As a result, the younger Williams sister holds 15 Grand Slam titles.  

But clay has always been her Achilles heel. She is more vulnerable on the red dirt than on any other surface because speed can counter her power. A scrambler like Errani can fluster and distract Williams from her goal. 

Her ability to maintain control, her temper and her concentration become the major X-Factors for Williams in this match.

Sara Errani, on the other hand, knows exactly what to expect when she faces Williams in the French Open semifinals. The two met recently on clay in Madrid where Errani managed to make life difficult for Williams in the first set. Eventually, Errani lost the contest 7-5, 6-2 but learned a great deal about the new and improved clay court game of Williams as they both headed for the French Open.

Errani believes she has a chance, in fact, a good chance to win this contest. But, she must be able to counter Williams’ power early enough in the match to frustrate the world No. 1, making her rush to end points instead of constructing them as is necessary on the clay. Errani’s ability to keep pace early and use her volleying skills to move Williams forward are the X-Factors for Errani in this upcoming match.

Serena Will Win If....

Serena Williams leads in her head-to-head with Errani 5-0, including two wins on clay in Madrid in 2013 and in Rome in 2008. She has all the tools needed to defeat her opponent in the semifinals, including the best serve in women’s tennis. The serve is enhanced by powerful groundstrokes plus an ability to volley at the net.

In the past, Williams relied solely on her typical all-court game to win on clay. What worked on grass and on hard courts did not bring success on clay because clay allows more time for returns. Players could not only counter her powerful serves and groundstrokes, but they often out-hustled her on court. 

But in 2013, Williams finally understands the clay-court mentality. She’s incorporated patience and rallying skills to her extensive repertoire of tennis weapons. As long as Williams maintains her calm demeanor, remaining in the point for as long as it takes, she will win this upcoming semifinal match. 

Errani Will Win If....

Sara Errani has nothing to lose in this match. She has never defeated Serena Williams in five tries. As the years have progressed, however, Errani has adapted to the power game with her speed, her agility and her intelligence on the court. As a doubles champion, her reaction time on court is instantaneous by now.

Errani reached the finals a year ago, defeating everyone she met except Maria Sharapova in the final. This year, she has an even bigger struggle getting past the world No. 1 to advance to the championship match.

Errani learns quickly. Her match in Madrid should provide clues to winning this match against Williams. The ability to win against Williams means being able to move her around, especially pulling her forward with drop shots and daring net play. 

You cannot defeat Williams by trying to out duel her from the back of the court. Errani’s success over Williams will come at the net. If she can disrupt the Williams’ game plan and pull the big woman forward, Errani can win this contest. 

Prediction....

Errani just defeated her first top 5 player when she sent No. 4 Agnieszka Radwanska packing at the conclusion of the quarterfinals. Additionally, the spunky Italian understands exactly what is required to upset the world No. 1 Williams on clay.  

Nonetheless, the enormity of her task is staggering. 

Serena Williams, since losing her opening round match at the 2012 French Open, has lost only three times. She has not relinquished a match so far on clay, tested severely on her way to the French Open semifinals.

Errani will try her utmost to upset Williams, never quitting on a single point, battling to the end. Ultimately, however, you must give the nod to Williams in this contest to win this match in straight sets. Errani, despite all of her attributes, does not possess the power or the stamina to defeat Serena Williams