2013 MLB Draft Projections: College Stars Who Won't Live Up to the Hype

With the 2013 MLB draft just hours away, now is a better time than ever to analyze the top prospects that might not be so exciting after getting drafted.

College stars have the upper hand on high school prospects since they have much more experience and have faced tougher opponents. Unless they’re playing in a very weak conference, they likely aren’t beating up on poor opposing pitchers or batters very often.

But it doesn’t, by any means, mean that everything is going to be all hunky-dory once these college draft picks get into the minors and potentially into the majors. Many prospects in this year’s draft still have a lot to work on and are far from locks to succeed at the next level.

Here are three prospects in particular that really catch my eye and give me a feeling that things aren’t going to go so well after they hear names called. I’m not talking about falling on the steps going up to the stage at the draft either. I’m talking about performing at a very low level going forward. Let’s take a look.

Jonathon Crawford, RHP, Florida

Jonathon Crawford turned heads last season after a fantastic campaign. As a sophomore, Crawford went 6-2 with a 3.13 ERA across 19 appearances (14 starts). He struck out 73 batters across 77.2 innings while walking just 24. He was best known for throwing a no-hitter in the Gainesville Regional a year ago.

But Crawford was underwhelming in 2013 after such a solid 2012. In 15 starts, Crawford went 3-6 for the Gators with a 3.84 ERA. In 86.2 innings of work, he struck out 69 batters and walked 37. He’s been inconsistent year-to-year to say the least and that could affect his draft stock.

The biggest problems for Crawford, as B/R MLB Prospects lead writer Mike Rosenbaum mentioned in April, is that his velocity has fluctuated, his command and control hasn’t been great and he might end up being a reliever going forward. With so much to work on, including perfecting his delivery, the bullpen is a possibility.

While Crawford could’ve been considered a first-round draft pick going into 2013, it’s unlikely that he sneaks in now. Crawford will need to prove early and often in the minor leagues that he has a handle on things, but I just don’t see that happening. It appears that his no-hitter may have been more about luck than skill.

Ryan Eades, RHP, LSU

Last season was Ryan Eades’ best. He went 5-3 with a 3.83 ERA across 94 innings of work. He walked 28 batters and struck out 63. He just didn’t have very overpowering stuff. This season hasn’t been much better, which has his draft stock a little all over the place. It’s unlikely he’ll be a first-round pick, though.

In 16 starts this season, Eades is 8-1 with a 2.81 ERA in 96 innings. While Eades hasn’t allowed many opponents to score, he’s still walking a bunch and batters are hitting him pretty well. He’s walked 30 batters this year and has stuck out just 77. Opponents are hitting .269 off of him, which is high even though he plays in the SEC.

Eades is going to take a while to develop no matter which team he ends up with. He really needs to work on his repertoire, which hasn’t fooled many batters the last two seasons. If he continues to struggle, there’s a very good chance that he never makes it to the majors, which would be quite the disappointment.

What scouts and front offices have seen from Eades probably doesn’t have them raving about him. They likely see him as a project. While Eades could have a high ceiling if he figures things out, that doesn’t seem to be the case going forward. Unless he learns to command the zone better, he’ll be a bust.

Austin Wilson, OF, Stanford

Austin Wilson is a fierce college hitter that could turn out to be one of the best sluggers in this year’s draft class. But there is a catch: he has to stay healthy. Wilson missed a lot of time this year at Stanford due to a stress reaction near the tip of his elbow, according to Aaron Fit of Baseball America.

On the year, Wilson hit .288/.387/.475 with five home runs, 26 RBI and 26 runs. He hit .285 with 10 home runs a year ago while also having 15 multi-RBI games—playing in 59 games throughout the year. He is a solid defensive outfielder that has good range and could probably play any of the three outfield positions.

But what scares me about Wilson—aside from his elbow—is that he isn’t the best contact hitter. While he’s never struck out much, he’s seem to get retired often for one of the top position players in the nation. Hitting .285 and .288 isn’t great, despite the fact that the Pac-12 is a tough conference to play in.

Wilson will likely get chosen in the first round in the draft, potentially somewhere in the top 20. But whichever team takes him better be aware that he needs a considerable amount of work. Hitting is what has got him to this point in his career, but if he hits below .300 in college, he should expect to hit more than .250 if he eventually gets to the majors.