Jonathan Gray's Biggest Strengths and Weaknesses Entering the MLB Draft

This isn’t Jonathan Gray’s first rodeo.

The Oklahoma right-hander prepares for the 2013 MLB draft having already been here before. Gray was previously selected in the 13th round by the Kansas City Royals in 2010, and in the 10th round by the New York Yankees in 2011.

Both times, however, he opted  to continue his career at the college level in hopes of earning a higher selection in the draft.

That day may have finally come. By all indications, the big-armed righty could be staring down the barrel of a top-three selection in this year’s draft—and for good reason.

In 2012, Gray transferred to Oklahoma and put together a solid season, posting an 8-4 record with an ERA of 3.16 and a WHIP of 1.39. He also struck out 104 batters in 102.2 innings of work and held opponents to a .267 batting average.

However, those 2012 numbers pale in comparison to what Gray has done in 2013.

In 119 innings pitched this season, Gray posted a 1.59 ERA and recorded 138 strikeouts—good for second in the nation. His WHIP also dipped to a tremendous 0.84 to go with a 10-2 record with the Sooners.

Of course, statistics aren’t all that MLB teams look at when evaluating top prospects. In fact, statistics fall somewhere near the bottom of the list.

Let’s take a look at the biggest strengths and weaknesses of Gray’s game ahead of the 2013 MLB draft and offer a projection for his final landing spot.

Bringing the Heat

When it comes to velocity, few pitchers in this draft even come close to what Gray brings to the table. With a fastball that tops out near triple digits and explodes on hitters at the last second, the Oklahoma product didn’t need much else to catch scouts’ attention.

At 6’4” and 140 pounds, Gray has the mass to hold up to his tremendous power. He isn’t an especially athletic pitcher, but that’s to be expected from a guy who routinely powers the ball into the 95-98 miles-per-hour range.

That overpowering fastball is easily Gray’s best pitch—and the pitch he controls best—but he also has a solid slider and a changeup that can be deadly when he keeps enough velocity separation between his off-speed stuff and his fastball. Neither pitch shines, but both are especially difficult to hit when his fastball is working.

There’s really not much to dislike about Gray’s game, especially after he put in extra time at the college ranks to refine his mechanics and work on his command. High-90s velocity isn’t easily found, and when paired with a solid frame that can support the power and command to go with a couple extra pitches, the sky is the limit.

With the makings of a dominant power pitcher, Gray’s MLB projections are pretty straightforward. As long as he continues developing his secondary pitches and doesn’t succumb to the typical pitfalls of young power pitchers (namely arm injuries), Gray will make an immediate impact at the MLB level, and he won’t need much time in the minors to prove he’s ready to do so.

 

What Cools Scouts

Statistics have to come into play at some point, especially when discussing a prospect with very few flaws.

Gray put together a tremendous 2013 season, but that success hasn’t been sustained throughout his career. Until this season, Gray hasn’t posted the dominant numbers that would suggest any sort of trend.

Still, it’s hard to fault a player for making a huge leap in what will be his final collegiate season. Consider Gray’s prior marginal numbers simply a reason to be cautious.

It was also recently reported by Jon Heyman of CBS Sports that Gray was one of three prospects to fail an MLB drug test for using Adderall without a prescription:

While a failed drug test could be considered a red flag by some teams, Heyman also reported at least one MLB general manager didn’t see the failed drug test as an issue:

Whatever the case, Gray’s failed drug test adds another interesting piece to the puzzle that is his draft projection.

He’s still raw in a lot of areas, but it’s hard to ignore Gray’s overwhelming positives. If the powerful high-velocity righty lands with the right team—one that won’t rush him into starting too soon and take the time to develop his command and mechanics—Gray has a legitimate chance of being an ace at the MLB level.

 

Projection: No. 1 overall to the Houston Astros