MLB Draft 2013: Last-Minute Predictions for Where Top Prospects Will Land

Despite the fact that there are just a couple of hours until the 2013 MLB draft, there is still some noise about where the top prospects will end up going.

Last year, it was still relatively unknown as to who the Houston Astros would select No. 1 right up until the beginning of the draft. MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo believed just minutes before the start of the first round that Mark Appel would go first, but knew that there was chatter about Carlos Correa, according to the official Twitter account of the MLB draft.

This year, it’s also unclear as to which direction the Astros will go with their second consecutive No. 1 overall selection. There are a handful of scenarios that could play out depending on which prospect Houston takes and in some instances, could shake up the rest of the top 10.

So where are the top prospects going to go? Let’s take a look at what experts are saying about the best players in this year’s class and where they might end up landing by the end of the night.

Colin Moran, 3B, North Carolina

Colin Moran is one of the best position players available in this year’s draft class and could potentially be the player that Houston ends up selecting with the first overall pick in the draft. He’s one of few prospects whose team is still alive at the College World Series.

There’s a lot of chatter surrounding Moran because of how much money it’s expected to take in order to sign him—and also Oklahoma starting pitcher Jonathan Gray. The No. 1 pick in the draft has a value of $7,790,400, according to Jim Callis of Baseball America.

ESPN’s Keith Law had an interesting take on what Houston could end up doing in his second mock draft (Insider subscription required). Law believes that the Astros will take Moran first overall because they could offer him a $4 million deal and keep the remaining couple million for later picks. Taking Gray first would mean paying more, writes Law.

Houston has done a great job at building up its minor league system the last year to two, mainly because it’s had so many top picks in the draft. The Astros enter this draft needing to add a lot of young talent and the more money they can give to everyone the better. For that reason, it makes sense to take Moran first.

Don’t get me—or Law—wrong, though. Moran is a fantastic player with a ton of upside and is more than deserving to be drafted before any other prospect. It’s just that Gray and Appel have more potential, but could be considered more risky for the Astros. Moran, on the other hand, looks to be a safe, cheap choice.

Draft Projection: No. 1, Houston Astros

Jonathan Gray, RHP, Oklahoma

Jonathan Gray is one of few prospects entering the draft that’s in hot water. Gray found himself in trouble after it was reported by Law that he had tested positive for Adderall, a drug that’s banned by Major League Baseball. It’s fine to take the drug in the pros as long as you have a prescription, but sources told Law that Gray didn’t.

Many mock drafts have had Gray getting taken by the Astros with the No. 1 pick—including Law’s first (Insider subscription required)—but as time has gone on, it appears that as previously mentioned, Houston may go in a different direction.

Gray is a hard-throwing right-hander that has the potential to be a big league ace one day and it’s assumed that he’ll be taken within the first five picks in the draft. Sources told Darren Wolfson of ESPN 1500 that Minnesota is likely to take Gray if he were to fall to the fourth overall pick.

Gray is 10-2 on the year for Oklahoma with a 1.59 ERA in 16 starts. He’s struck out 138 batters while walking just 22 in 119 innings. That’s an average of 10.4 strikeouts per nine innings compared to just 1.6 walks. With great command, Gray should expect a big payday, no matter which team selects him.

While teams are making their final draft preparations, Gray seems like the toughest prospect to predict regarding where he’ll go. He’s a great pitcher who has a lot of potential, but with the positive drug test and him potentially wanting a big contract, it’s questionable as to which team feels like he’s worth it.

Draft Projection: No. 4, Minnesota Twins

Mark Appel, RHP, Stanford

Mark Appel was selected by the Pittsburgh Pirates with the eighth pick a year ago, but failed to sign a contract with the club. Now, Appel re-enters the draft in a similar position, as one of the top prospects who’s likely to go within the first three picks. Appel slid last year, but that’s not expected to happen this time around.

Appel went 10-4 with a 2.12 ERA in 14 starts this year for Stanford, striking out 130 batters while walking just 23 across 106.1 innings. He posted similar numbers last year as well. There’s no question that Appel is one of the top arms available, but it’s still up for debate as to where he’ll wind up.

Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times reported in late April that Cubs have narrowed it down to Appel and Gray. He also noted that Houston’s decision will have a huge impact on who Chicago ends up taking. But it doesn’t appear that Chicago is interested in Moran, should Gray or Appel go No. 1.

The Cubs are apparently serious about Appel, or at least that’s what Stanford associate head coach Dean Stotz told Jesse Rogers of ESPN Chicago. Stotz said that Cubs president Theo Epstein took in a few of Appel’s starts late in the year. For those that don’t know, team presidents don’t usually just go to random college games.

Appel is a smart choice for Chicago, but also wouldn’t be a terrible pick for Houston. He might end up costing the Astros money that could be better spent elsewhere, but he does have what it takes to be a No. 1 or 2 in the big leagues someday. I don’t see any way where the Rockies have the opportunity to take him.

Draft Projection: No. 2, Chicago Cubs