2013 MLB Mock Draft: Breaking Down Every 1st-Round Pick in This Year's Draft

With the 2013 MLB draft just over a day away, it’s time to really start breaking down which prospects are going to go where in the first round.

You can read my first mock draft for additional information on this year’s top high school and college talents, but several players have moved up and down since then. While teams have the same needs as a few days ago, there are prospects that now fit better than fit—hence the swapping.

There is a lot of pressure on some teams to land a player that’s going to turn their organization around, while others have deep minor league systems that can afford to take some risks in 2013.

Let’s breakdown where each team stands right now in terms of strengths and weaknesses and then try to determine which prospect they’ll be selecting in the MLB draft.

*Italicized picks denote players that have a more in-depth breakdown than other picks.

 

1. Houston Astros: Colin Moran, 3B, North Carolina

While it still has yet to be reported whom the Astros will select with the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, I really think that it won’t be a pitcher—despite how talented Mark Appel and Jonathan Gray are. In my previous mock, I talked about how Houston can save money by taking Moran. He’s still a great player.

2. Chicago Cubs: Mark Appel, RHP, Stanford

As long as Appel doesn’t get taken No. 1 by the Astros, there’s no way that the Cubs give up the opportunity to land him. Even if Gray is still on the board, Appel has to be the guy that Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer start to build the long-term Cubs around. He’s a safe choice with the No. 2 pick.

3. Colorado Rockies: Jonathan Gray, RHP, Oklahoma

Jonathan Gray found himself in a bit of trouble on Monday, when it became known that he tested positive for Adderall during the predraft testing program, according to Law. He will not be suspended, though, Law says.

Adderall is one of Major League Baseball's banned substances, and without a prescription for it, a player could get himself in some serious trouble. As Law notes in his piece, Phillies catcher Carlos Ruiz was suspended 25 games for this to start the 2013 season.

Gray is easily one of the top prospects available in this year’s draft class and is likely to hear his name called somewhere in the top five picks. A source told Law that Gray’s stock isn’t expected to drop despite the positive test.

The Colorado Rockies are going to select the best starting pitcher available, whether it’s Appel, Gray or even Kohl Stewart, depending on who Houston and Chicago take with the top two picks. If Gray is still available when Colorado goes on the clock, there’s no way that the Rockies can afford to pass him up.

4. Minnesota Twins: Kohl Stewart, RHP, St. Pius HS (Texas)

While the Twins need a shortstop, there isn’t one that deserves to be selected with the fourth pick in the draft. For that reason alone, Minnesota needs to a take pitcher—which is another weakness, but not as much as the other two positions. Stewart has a high ceiling, and the Twins need to convince him not to go to Texas A&M in the fall.

5. Cleveland Indians: Kris Bryant, 3B/OF, San Diego

The Indians are almost certainly going to select a college star with their first pick. Since 2000, Cleveland has gone with a high school talent just once with their first pick in the opening round of the draft. Since there’s more collegiate talent expected to go in the first five picks in the draft, don’t expect a change in trend.

Looking into the Indians’ system, they need someone that could potentially make their way through the minor leagues quickly. They also need someone who isn’t a shortstop—around five of Cleveland’s top prospects play short. An outfielder at No. 5 would make a lot of sense.

Cleveland could decide to break the college trend and take Clint Frazier, but Bryant has a higher ceiling in my opinion. He’s been a dominant slugger in college—despite not playing in a very competitive conference. For those who don’t know, he hit 31 home runs for San Diego this year in 62 games.

If the Indians don’t want a guy that hit a home run every other game this past season then I have no idea what the plan in Cleveland is. If Bryant is still available at No. 5, he’s a no-brainer.

6. Miami Marlins: Clint Frazier, OF, Loganville HS (Ga.)

Once Giancarlo Stanton gets healthy, the Marlins are going to have two players in their outfield that will be in Miami for a long time. But if Stanton is eventually traded, the Marlins will need to have someone to play alongside Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna. Clint Frazier is the top prep position player, and even if Miami hangs on to Stanton, he would be good to have.

7. Boston Red Sox: Austin Meadows, OF, Grayson HS (Ga.)

The Red Sox will look to add an outfielder early in the draft even though they have some depth at the position in the minor leagues. A draft evaluator told Evan Drellich of MassLive.com that Boston is likely going to go with Frazier or Meadows at No. 7. Since I have Frazier going to Miami a pick earlier, it makes sense that Meadows would end up with the Red Sox.

8. Kansas City Royals: Braden Shipley, RHP, Nevada

Kansas City has several top prospects in the minor leagues that are ready to take the mound for the Royals very soon. There are also some arms taking a little bit longer, but have shown promise for the future. Despite the depth, the Royals shouldn’t pass up the opportunity to take Shipley, who has ace-like stuff.

9. Pittsburgh Pirates*: Reese McGuire, C, Kentwood HS (Wash.)

The Pirates are banking on Wyatt Mathisen to turn into a superstar, which may or may not happen. Mathisen is only in Single-A and is going to need a bit more time to develop before Pittsburgh knows one way or another. Taking McGuire with the ninth pick would give them some insurance in case Mathisen doesn’t work out. The Pirates could also go with a shortstop here.

10. Toronto Blue Jays: J.P. Crawford, SS, Lakewood HS (Calif.)

The Blue Jays have really been focusing on improving their short-term and long-term pitching staff in recent years. Now, it’s time to upgrade the future offense. There are only a couple of top prospects that are position players within the system, and Christian Lopes is the only one who looks decent at shortstop. Toronto needs to find the future replacement for Jose Reyes.

11. New York Mets: D.J. Peterson, 1B/3B, New Mexico

New York is likely all set with drafting pitchers. The Mets are also fine on the left side of the infield with Wilmer Flores and last year’s top pick, Gavin Cecchini. Obviously, Travis d’Arnaud is the plan behind the plate. Peterson would be the future first baseman and could also play third if New York shipped Flores or if things didn’t go according to plan. Versatility is what the Mets need.

12. Seattle Mariners: Trey Ball, LHP/OF, New Castle HS (Ind.)

If the Mariners can sign Ball to a deal, they’ll be getting the best left-handed pitcher in the class. Seattle has a ton of great pitching talent for the future, but should add more just in case. You can never have too much pitching. Danny Hultzen and James Paxton are two good lefties that Seattle already has. Ball could follow in their footsteps.

13. San Diego Padres: Hunter Renfroe, OF, Mississippi State

The Padres need to take the best offensive player available at No. 13 as a majority of their minor league talent are pitchers. Aside from Rymer Liriano and Austin Hedges, San Diego isn’t built to hit in the future. Renfroe hit .352/.440/.634 with 15 home runs and 58 RBI for Mississippi State this past season and is still competing in the College World Series.

14. Pittsburgh Pirates: Dominic Smith, 1B, Serra HS (Calif.)

The Pirates have put a large emphasis on pitching in the draft the last few years and have neglected their future infield. The outfield, though, should be just fine. Pittsburgh can’t survive with Garrett Jones and Gaby Sanchez at first base forever, and with their first pick, Smith makes a lot of sense. They need someone who can rise through their system quickly, and he has that potential.

15. Arizona Diamondbacks: Ryne Stanek, RHP, Arkansas

The Diamondbacks are set up perfectly for the future on the mound, but Stanek is too good of a prospect to pass on. For the Razorbacks this year, he’s gone 6-2 in 12 starts with a 1.87 ERA. In 67.1 innings of work, he’s struck out 59 batters while walking just 26. If Arizona decides to go with a pitcher with their top 2013 pick, it should be Stanek—if he’s still available.

16. Philadelphia Phillies: Phil Bickford, RHP, Westlake Village HS (Calif.)

Philadelphia enters this year’s draft looking to bulk up on a couple of top prospects that will hopefully turn into stars at the major league level. The Phillies have some solid talent in the minor leagues, but lack depth. Pitching isn’t a weakness for the Phillies, but the team still needs to protect itself.

While Adam Morgan, Jesse Biddle and Ethan Martin are nearly ready to be in the big leagues full-time, there aren’t many pitchers behind them in case things don’t go as planned. That’s primarily why the Phillies must take a pitcher with their first pick in the draft. They can afford to wait on adding at other positions.

Phil Bickford is one starter that could make sense for the Phillies, but they’re going to need to wow him with a sizeable contract. Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com discussed Bickford with B/R’s Mike Rosenbaum, explaining he will likely go to Cal State Fullerton if he doesn’t get enough money.

Bickford is a great high school arm that struck out a ton of opposing batters during the year. According to Eric Sondheimer of the Los Angeles Times, Bickford was averaging 14.2 strikeouts per seven innings during the season. I’d say that he’s worth the risk.

17. Chicago White Sox: Austin Wilson, OF, Stanford

Like I said in my first mock draft, the White Sox could have a very good outfield in the future should they take Wilson with their first-round pick. Courtney Hawkins looks like a sure thing, and Austin Wilson has somewhat similar qualities. Adding him into the mix with guys like Trayce Thompson and Keenyn Walker would give Chicago four potential stars at the major league level.

18. Los Angeles Dodgers: Sean Manaea, LHP, Indiana State

In 13 starts for Indiana St. this year, Manaea went 5-4 with a 1.47 ERA in 73.1 innings while striking out 93 batters. The Dodgers already have a bunch of arms in the lower levels in their system, but Manaea has a lot of upside and has a bit more potential than some of the incumbent pitchers. The Dodgers could take an infielder with the 18th pick as well.

19. St. Louis Cardinals: Tim Anderson, SS, East Central CC

Who is going to be St. Louis’ shortstop once Rafael Furcal is gone and Pete Kozma comes back to reality? That seems to be a pressing question this time of the year with the draft just a day away. The Cardinals don’t have anyone in the minors that looks to be able to hold down the fort in the future. St. Louis absolutely must taken Anderson here.

20. Detroit Tigers: Alex Gonzalez, RHP, Oral Roberts

The Tigers have one of the best starting rotations in baseball right now and need to make sure that that’s the case for the next 10 years. They can do so by adding Gonzalez, a right-hander from Oral Roberts. Detroit has a couple of arms in the minors, but none like him. He went 9-5 with a 1.83 ERA in 15 starts this season.

21. Tampa Bay Rays: Nick Ciuffo, C, Lexington HS (S.C.)

This is one pick that has gone unchanged from my first mock draft as the Rays really need to focus on adding a catcher with their first pick in the draft. Tampa Bay doesn’t have anyone to back up Jose Molina or Jose Lobaton that is eventually going to be a star—or even has the potential to be one. The Rays must take Ciuffo.

22. Baltimore Orioles: Hunter Harvey, RHP, Bandys HS (N.C.)

The Orioles have two bright young stars for the team’s long-term rotation in Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman. While there are a couple of prospects behind those two that could do some damage in the big leagues, Baltimore could use a bit more depth in the minor leagues. Baltimore doesn’t have a Plan B after Bundy and Gausman.

23. Texas Rangers: Ian Clarkin, LHP, James Madison HS (Calif.)

If the Rangers can throw enough money at Clarkin to keep him from going to San Diego next year, then they can add him to a short list of top pitching prospects. Martin Perez, who is a lefty like Clarkin as well as Cody Buckel, will likely lead the team’s future starting rotation. Clarkin would definitely add to Texas’ staff in the coming years and could be a quick riser through their system.

24. Oakland Athletics: Josh Hart, OF, Parkview HS (Ga.)

Oakland needs to focus on adding outfielders, pitching and a catcher in this draft, and I think the most pressing need is in the outfield. Michael Choice is certainly a part of the long-term plan, but outside of him, there isn’t a prospect that jumps out at you. But with Oakland, you never know what Billy Beane has up his sleeve. 

25. San Francisco Giants: Eric Jagielo, 3B, Notre Dame

The Giants may very well look to add the best bat available with such a late first-round slot. There aren’t a ton of big bats in San Francisco’s system as of now, and Jagielo would fix that problem. He hit .388/.500/.633 with nine home runs and 53 RBI for Notre Dame this year. While he didn’t hit a ton of home runs, he is very good at driving in runners—which is more than acceptable.

26. New York Yankees: Dustin Peterson, SS/3B, Gilbert HS (Ariz.)

The Yankees have yet to find Derek Jeter’s replacement. Taking into consideration it seems unlikely that Jeter is going to be playing in the big leagues much longer due to age and injuries, New York must act sooner rather than later. Peterson is a prospect that can play shortstop or third base well and could get on the fast track to the big leagues—which is exactly what the Bronx Bombers need.

27. Cincinnati Reds: Kyle Serrano, RHP, Farragut HS (Tenn.)

Cincinnati will have a good starting rotation for many years with the way its system is shaping up right now. While there are arms ready for the big promotion as well as some that are still developing, Serrano is a high-upside pick that will be good to have in the minors for the long term. It’s also not the end of the world if he doesn’t sign a professional deal.

28. St. Louis Cardinals*: Cord Sandberg, OF, Manatee HS (Fla.)

As long as the Cardinals manage to land Anderson at No. 19, they can focus elsewhere. If Anderson gets chosen before St. Louis is on the clock, then all focus needs to go back to finding a long-term solution at shortstop. St. Louis could take an outfielder here at No. 28 or maybe a left-handed pitcher, too. Either would be fine.

29. Tampa Bay Rays*: Hunter Dozier, SS/3B, Stephen F. Austin

The Rays took a third baseman in the first round last year—Richie Shaffer—and I believe that Tampa Bay will take another infielder for the left side in 2013. Tampa Bay has one of the top minor league systems in baseball and enters the draft without any big weaknesses outside of catcher—which is covered at No. 21. It couldn’t hurt to add someone in case Shaffer, Hak-Ju Lee or another top prospect doesn’t pan out.

30. Texas Rangers*: Travis Demeritte, 3B/2B, Winder Barrow HA (Ga.)

As I stated in my first mock draft, Joey Gallo looks to be Texas’ third baseman of the future. Jurickson Profar is going to be up the middle for a long time, too. Whether that’s at shortstop or second base remains to be seen. If it is at shortstop, Texas should use its second of two first-round picks on Demeritte, who can play second or third. The Rangers need to add depth at both positions.

31. Atlanta Braves*: Marco Gonzales, LHP, Gonzaga

While Atlanta’s pitching staff looks to be a sure thing for the future, the Braves must be careful about overworking some of those arms as they await big league opportunities. Gonzales comes with little risk and high upside. He went 7-3 with a 2.80 ERA in 17 games for Gonzaga this year. He has a good bat too, if Atlanta decides to move him.

32. New York Yankees*: Billy McKinney, OF, Plano West HS (Texas)

New York is somewhat set with its future outfield. As it looks right now, the Yankees will have Mason Williams, Tyler Austin and Slade Heathcott as regulars sometime in the next few seasons. Drafting another outfielder, though, would give the Yankees the opportunity to trade one of the aforementioned three to aid an area of weakness.

33. New York Yankees*: Chris Anderson, RHP, Jacksonville

The Yankees have the final pick in the first round of the draft, and despite having some good arms in the minor leagues, New York should continue to add depth to its system. The Yankees don’t have the best track record with pitchers coming through the system, and it would be wise to use their first pick of the opening round on a starter. There should be a lot of prospects to choose from.

*Denotes a compensation pick.