Rafael Nadal Must Show Improvement vs. Kei Nishikori

On Saturday, I wrote at length about Rafael Nadal's early struggles at the French Open and addressed how they don't bode well for his chances of winning an eighth career tournament at Roland Garros.

After a night to sleep on it, I figured I'd wake up feeling guilty, as if I acted rashly, burdened by my premature predictions of Rafa's demise. But that's not how I felt when I woke up this morning—in fact, it was quite the contrary.

I felt like I wasn't dire enough.

I still obviously stand by the point I made in that piece: After pronounced struggles in the first three rounds, I don't expect Nadal to win this year's French Open. He's lost 48 games through the first three rounds, more than any of his championship years and more than his average in those tournaments by 22 games:

	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Rounds 1-3
2013	19	15	14	48
2012	5	4	8	17
2011	24	14	4	42
2010	6	7	10	23
2008	9	5	5	19
2007	10	7	6	23
2006	8	7	19	34
2005	8	8	9	25

But these stats point more toward his long-term downfall and serve as evidence against his ability to win the entire tournament. Now I fear that I was looking too far into the future. Because the more I look at his next opponents, I'm not even sure he'll win another match.

I know karma and narrative appeal aren't actual factors to take into account, but if they were, nobody would be in better shape than Nadal's next opponent, Kei Nishikori. The precocious 22-year-old made history in his last match, advancing to the fourth round of the French Open and becoming the first Japanese man to do so in 75 years.

But Nishikori is more than just a good story. He's also subtly one of the hottest players in all of tennis. There's a reason he's ranked so high so young, and his recent body of work supports that.

Nishikori won the 2013 U.S. National Indoor Championships without dropping a single set, then parlayed that into an impressive showing at the Madrid Open—a tournament where he beat Roger Federer 6-4, 1-6, 6-2 in the third round.

And yes, I know: Nishikori lost in the next round at Madrid, while Nadal went on to win the whole thing. I get that. But Nishikori has segued his momentum from Spain into an impressive first three rounds in France. He's played just as well, if not better than he did in the run-up to the tournament. Nadal, even through the lens of his most obstinate supporter, cannot make the same claim.

Nadal's inside-out forehand has been absent at this year's Open, and his game plan has been predictable. There's no drama or suspense to any of his shots; it's all been by the book, as if some sort of cleverly disguised automaton has guided him through the field. But Kei Nishikori isn't Daniel Brands or Martin Klizan.  

Kei Nishikori can exploit that.

Now I'm not bold enough to predict a Nishikori upset. That takes a level of cojones that I simply don't have. Give me even odds on both players, and my money will fall squarely on Nadal—history suggests you'd be crazy to expect otherwise. Nadal is 4-0 all time against Nishikori.

But I can't rule out the possibility of an upset, and I certainly wouldn't be shocked to see it happen. Maybe the first Japanese man to make the fourth round in 75 years is also destined to make the quarterfinals. That's precisely what he did at last year's Australian Open, upsetting Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and becoming the first Japanese man to advance that far at Melbourne in 80 years.

Under one month removed from defeating Roger Federer, maybe Nishikori is poised to knock off another member of modern tennis royalty. If Nadal doesn't clean up his act from the first three rounds, he won't even make the task that difficult.