10 Dark-Horse Contenders Emerging for the MLB Cy Young Awards

Many of the predictions made prior to the 2013 MLB season have not come to fruition. Blame these dark-horse contenders, emerging in both leagues to hijack the races for the AL and NL Cy Young Awards.

The reigning winners, R.A. Dickey and David Price, haven't been able to replicate their 2012 success. The former is being plagued by gopheritis at hitter-friendly Rogers Centre, while Price failed to generate top velocity before landing on the disabled list with a triceps injury. Entering June 4, their earned run averages sit at 5.18 and 5.24, respectively.

Several recent award recipients look sharp so far, including Felix Hernandez (AL, 2010), Clayton Kershaw (NL, 2011) and Cliff Lee (AL, 2008). But because of their durable and consistent track records, none of their dominance comes as much of a surprise.

Veterans Matt Cain, Johnny Cueto, Cole Hamels, Adam Wainwright and Jered Weaver have all received considerable support from the baseball writers in the not-too-distant past. We didn't doubt that they would be in the mix once again.

And Yu Darvish, Chris Sale and Stephen Strasburg were all sexy picks entering their second full major league seasons as starters. With elite fastballs, filthy off-speed pitches and youth on their side, excellence was expected.

This article is about everybody else, the pitchers we insisted were too inexperienced, old or erratic to create formidable competition for the established aces.

Some fought for jobs as recently as spring training. Now, they're eyeing the distinction of being their league's best pitcher.

AL Contender: LHP Matt Moore (Tampa Bay Rays)

Matt Moore flashed potential greatness in his first nine starts following the 2012 All-Star break. During those 56.1 IP, opponents combined for a measly .591 OPS. That hot streak was largely ignored as Moore faded in September and the Tampa Bay Rays missed the playoffs.

This season, the highly-touted lefty is maintaining that "greatness" over a longer period with a .598 OPS against and a 2.18 ERA. And the sample size would have been slightly larger if a lengthy rain delay didn't wash away his May 31 outing after one inning of work.

Moreover, Moore's competition has been formidable. The majority of his first 11 starts—as well as No. 12 on Tuesday night against the Detroit Tigers—have come on the road. Besides a matchup with the offensively-inept Chicago White Sox, none of his April or May assignments were particularly easy.

All that said, Moore doesn't quite stack up to other AL Cy Young Award threats. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is barely two-to-one, and only one of his performances has lasted beyond seven innings or 110 pitches.

Throwing fewer than half his first pitches for strikes and inducing fewer swings and misses (h/t Baseball-Reference.com) will eventually lead to regression in other areas.

AL Contender: RHP Clay Buchholz (Boston Red Sox)

Weather impacted Clay Buchholz's latest appearance, too. Facing the New York Yankees—who recently activated Mark Teixeira and Kevin Youkilis from the disabled list—and lacking command of his changeup, he was dominating through five innings before the skies opened up.

The Texas native has consistently been between 6.0 SO/9 and 7.0 SO/9 during the past four seasons. That put him at the mercy of the Boston Red Sox defense, which underachieved for much of 2012 due to injuries (hence the bloated ERA and BAA).

The 28-year-old version cruises into the second-third of the summer with an AL-best 1.62 ERA and 270 ERA+ (which adjusts for Fenway Park's hitter-friendly features) because he's not so reliant on balls in play.

Most of his 77 strikeouts have been of the looking variety, as Buchholz masterfully commands the components of his usual four-pitch repertoire. FanGraphs shows that he is using them in familiar proportions and actually throwing slower than he did during his breakthrough 2010 campaign. Exploiting the hard-to-reach regions of the strike zone is the reason for his stellar results.

Buchholz's lower back has caused problems in the past, and he missed a scheduled start earlier in 2013 with shoulder inflammation. But barring a prolonged absence, he'll be in the Cy Young race until the end.

AL Contender: RHP Hisashi Iwakuma (Seattle Mariners)

Hisashi Iwakuma's brilliance toward the end of 2012 did not go unnoticed. He simply didn't garner as much attention as Felix "Mr. Perfect" Hernandez.

The Japanese 32-year-old ranks first among AL starters with an 0.87 WHIP. Only a handful of others even maintain theirs below 1.00. Thanks to astounding efficiency (fewer than 14 pitches per inning), his total of 80.1 IP is a top-10 AL total.

Ridiculous as it seems, Iwakuma could improve from a statistical standpoint as the summer wears on. The majority of his outings have been away from the pitcher-friendly confines of Safeco Field, and he has only opposed the lowly Houston Astros once so far.

More so than anybody on this list, the right-hander possesses underwhelming stuff. Iwakuma's average fastball velocity of 89.5 mph puts him 74th out of 103 qualified MLB starters. His mistakes get tattooed, as evidenced by the 10 home runs allowed.

AL Contender: RHP Max Scherzer (Detroit Tigers)

Max Scherzer's ordinary earned run average (3.42) is more than double that of Clay Buchholz and only third-best in the Detroit Tigers rotation. But that doesn't wholly reflect how well he's been pitching

His 91 strikeouts trail Yu Darvish and Anibal Sanchez, though he leads both of them with about seven innings pitched per start. Scherzer has a microscopic .187 batting average against and a Justin Verlander-esque average of 105 pitches each outing. The fire-baller also holds on would-be base-stealers as well as any right-hander in the league.

Being an extreme fly-ball pitcher, Scherzer has been particularly affected by Austin Jackson's absence. His return from a strained hamstring should result in fewer opposing extra-base hits in the left-center and right-center gaps.

NL Contender: LHP Travis Wood (Chicago Cubs)

Typically, offensive contributions don't sway a Cy Young Award race in favor of one candidate or another. There comes a point, however, when such things must not be overlooked.

Travis Wood has reached that point by batting .292/.320/.583 with two home runs and seven RBI in 26 PA. He also adds value while pinch-running, having thrice entered a game in such a role.

On the mound, this fourth-year major league starter has lasted six-plus innings in 10 of 11 starts. The only exception was an outing at the hitter's haven of Great American Ball Park, where he exited one out short of that minimum. Wood records more than twice as many strikeouts as walks, and the opposition bats only .194 against him.

But that doesn't seem sustainable, as Grantland's Jonah Keri explains. Wood's fortunate BABIP and home-run-to-fly-ball ratio are due to regress to the mean.

NL Contender: RHP Shelby Miller (St. Louis Cardinals)

Improbably, the same Shelby Miller who served up two dozen home runs at Triple-A last summer is now vying for major hardware. He's been dubbed a top-50 prospect by Baseball America prior to each of his professional seasons, so the industry anticipated long-term success.

Later this decade, not in 2013.

At 22 years young, Miller is Clay Buchholz's National League counterpart. He leads the Senior Circuit in ERA and is second in ERA+, reaping the benefits of an outrageously low HR/FB ratio.

Other lineups dread facing him at Busch Stadium. Miller tossed a complete-game one-hitter there on May 10 and has held the opposition scoreless in four of five home starts this season.

NL Contender: RHP Jordan Zimmermann (Washington Nationals)

This spring, it was fashionable to predict that the Washington Nationals would make a deep playoff run in 2013. Their sub-.500 record entering June 4 is the culmination of numerous players failing to perform up to their capabilities.

Don't count Jordan Zimmermann among them. The right-hander has already pitched an NL-best three complete games. If not for Adam Wainwright, he would also rank first in walks per nine innings.

Zimmermann is swimming against the current by inviting more contact than in years past (2009-2012: 7.4 SO/9; 2013: 5.4 SO/9). But it's OK because his pitches have been lower in the strike zone, thus leading to harmless ground balls. Also, Baseball-Reference.com shows that nearly one-fifth of balls that get in the air don't leave the infield.

The longer Stephen Strasburg needs to recover from a Grade 1 lat strain, the more opportunities Zimmermann will have to emerge from underneath his lanky shadow and prove that he's Washington's true ace.

NL Contender: LHP Patrick Corbin (Arizona Diamondbacks)

Patrick Corbin epitomizes the phrase "coming out of nowhere." There isn't a sane analyst on the planet who expected a guy who barely squeezed into the rotation (via MLB.com's Steve Gilbert) to be in any sort of best-of-the-best discussions.

In a season where Miguel Montero isn't affecting games with his bat, he's been an amazing battery mate. Corbin owns a 1.76 ERA in nine starts with him behind the plate (2.06 ERA overall).

Like Travis Wood, this southpaw is the beneficiary of some good fortune. He is inducing more fly balls than grounders, but he has only surrendered four home runs in 74.1 IP. With approximately half his starts coming at Chase Field, that's bound to change.

Corbin's consistency is evident from his season-opening streak of nine quality starts. Even the two outings he's pitched since then both lasted six innings.

NL Contender: RHP Matt Harvey (New York Mets)

In the box score, it looks like the Miami Marlins roughed up Matt Harvey: 5.0 IP, 10 H, 4 R, 2 BB, 5 SO on 100 pitches.

Few of the balls were hit solidly, however. This outing normalized Harvey's BABIP, but probably didn't shake his confidence.

It's tough to defeat pitchers like him who combine mid-90s velocity, multiple trustworthy off-speed pitches and command. Actually, nobody has. Like Clay Buchholz, Patrick Corbin and Max Scherzer, Harvey boasts an undefeated record. The key difference is that those guys pitch for much better offensive teams.

While more poor performances from the other New York Mets rotation members might frustrate Harvey, it would ultimately help his Cy Young case. Sportswriters participating in the voting can respect a player who carries an otherwise dysfunctional squad. But obviously, that's out of Harvey's control.

He has recorded at least twice as many strikeouts as walks in each of his starts this season (via Baseball-Reference.com).

NL Contender: RHP Jason Grilli (Pittsburgh Pirates)

There might not be a better storyline than the rise of Jason Grilli from adequate middle reliever to lights-out closer at such a late stage in his career. The universal appeal of his unorthodox baseball journey will definitely resonate with the writers come season's end.

The case for him is rooted in his flawlessness in save situations (22-for-22), his .362 OPS against and nasty strikeout rate. He causes opponents to whiff more often than any NL bullpen arm not named Aroldis Chapman, according to FanGraphs. Grilli struck out the side in five of his first 28 appearances of 2013.

At this rate, he could end a decade-long drought for relievers. Eric Gagne was the last of the breed to take home a Cy Young Award while with the 2003 Los Angeles Dodgers.

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