2013 NBA Draft: Best-Case, Worst-Case Comparisons for Projected Top 10 Picks

The 2013 NBA draft, much like every other draft, is all about balancing risks and rewards. Each team hopes that its selection will end up fulfilling its best-case comparison, but it must consider the worst-case scenarios as well. 

To explain what I mean, here's a ridiculous hypothetical situation. 

Anything could happen with Player A. He's a center with the upside of Hakeem Olajuwon and the downside of Kwame Brown. You could be getting the next Hall of Famer, or you could be drafting the next massive bust. 

Player B is a much safer pick, but his ceiling is more limited. There's no way he'll develop into Hakeem, but he's going to fall somewhere in between Dikembe Mutombo and Alonzo Mourning. 

Who would you rather pick: the sure thing, Player B, or the high-risk, high-reward prospect, Player A? That's the question that every organization must ask itself at this time of year. 

With that in mind, let's take a look at the top 10 prospects for this draft and analyze their best- and worst-case comparisons. In the interest of leaving the focus on the comparisons and not the order of the players, I've used the order provided to us by B/R's Jonathan Wasserman in his latest mock draft. 

10. C.J. McCollum

School: Lehigh

Position: PG

Age: 21

Vitals: 6'3", 197 pounds

2012-13 Per-Game Stats: 23.9 points, 5.0 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.3 blocks

Best-Case Comparison: Stephen Curry

There are a lot of parallels between C.J. McCollum and Damian Lillard, but their games aren't too similar. A more apt comparison involves the NBA's newest superstar: Stephen Curry. 

Just like Curry did at Davidson, McCollum led his Lehigh squad to previously unseen territory. And just as Curry started to do a few years back, the 21-year-old will find success in the NBA. 

McCollum can truly score from anywhere. He's a creative finisher around the rim, a deadly shooter from the outside and almost unstoppable when he's allowed to dribble into a shot. 

How many triples have we seen Curry create with his fancy dribbling skills? Well, you're about to see something similar unfold when McCollum joins his first professional team. 

Worst-Case Comparison: Jerryd Bayless

While Bayless went to a significantly bigger school than McCollum, he plays a similar type of game. And his role on the Memphis Grizzlies—offensive spark plug for the second unit—is a lot like the situation the Lehigh product could find himself in down the road. 

At worst, McCollum will earn a spot on a solid team's rotation. He's too good at shooting and creating his own looks to fall any further. 

Bayless' perimeter game isn't as impressive as McCollum's, but don't tell him that. He'll shoot anyway. 

9. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

School: Georgia

Position: SG

Age: 20

Vitals: 6'6", 204 pounds

2012-13 Per-Game Stats: 18.5 points, 7.1 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 2.0 steals, 0.5 blocks

Best-Case Comparison: a less mercurial J.R. Smith

When J.R. Smith comes to play with his head screwed on properly, he's a force to be reckoned with. The NBA's newest Sixth Man of the Year is a fantastic scorer, even if his shot selection often borders on poor. 

Smith has a terrific jumper—one he never hesitates to use—and he can drive to the basket with the best of them. Every once in a while, the shooting guard shows off his insane hops, elevating for a thunderous slam that's sure to make its way to SportsCenter. 

Everything I just said can also apply to Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. 

KCP will thrive in a role similar to Smith's, largely because he so often had to do everything for himself while at Georgia. 

Worst-Case Comparison: Nick Young

KCP's shot selection can often be poor as well, although that was partially due to the unfortunate lack of options surrounding him on the Bulldogs. Maybe things would be different if he had better talent joining him, but Caldwell-Pope always showed a hesitance to pass the ball. 

Nick Young might not even know what the word "pass" means. 

Much like Young, KCP is an impressive offensive talent, and he lays claim to some defensive skill as well. He'll certainly find a way to stick around in the Association because of the dearth of talent at shooting guard. 

8. Anthony Bennett

School: UNLV

Position: PF

Age: 20

Vitals: 6'7", 239 pounds

2012-13 Per-Game Stats: 15.8 points, 8.0 rebounds, 0.9 assists, 0.7 steals, 1.2 blocks

Best-Case Comparison: Paul Millsap

The chances are good that many college basketball fans never saw Anthony Bennett play while he was at UNLV, mostly because the Runnin' Rebels didn't get too much national airtime. The same can be said for professional basketball fans, Paul Millsap and the Utah Jazz. 

Both are undersized power forwards who overcome their lack of height on a routine basis. Millsap does so more with his motor and energy than his athleticism, but Bennett possesses every athletic tool that you could ask for, and his motor never stops running. 

With a solid jumper and a number of face-up moves in his arsenal, Bennett seems like the second coming of the Jazz forward who's now an unrestricted free agent. 

Worst-Case Comparison: Jason Maxiell

Another undersized 4, Jason Maxiell goes to work with remarkable strength, toughness and athleticism. His upside is rather limited, but he's carved out a nice niche for himself as a rotation big. 

Maxiell has a solid jumper and can finish around the rim, but don't ask him to put his back to the basket and go to work. It probably won't turn out successfully, and the same can be said for Bennett's undeveloped post game. 

Much like many upper-tier prospects, he isn't the lowest ceiling among players eligible to be drafted. Bennett almost certainly will settle into a rotation for a long time. 

7. Michael Carter-Williams

School: Syracuse

Position: PG

Age: 21

Vitals: 6'6", 184 pounds

2012-13 Per-Game Stats: 11.9 points, 4.3 rebounds, 7.3 assists, 2.8 steals, 0.5 blocks

Best-Case Comparison: Penny Hardaway

The first thing you notice when watching Michael Carter-Williams is how ridiculously big he is. Point guards aren't supposed to be 6'6", and his 6'7" wingspan only helps him out even more. 

So it's only natural that we compare him to another point guard who was considerably bigger than his typical opponent: Penny Hardaway. 

Like Hardaway, MCW doesn't have the most consistent outside shot, but he does have a great deal of athleticism. In terms of playing style, these two guys aren't all that similar, though: Carter-Williams is much more of a distributor than the player to whom he's being compared. 

Regardless, his size necessitates the comparison. 

Worst-Case Comparison: Shaun Livingston

Sticking with the theme of big point guards, Carter-Williams' worst-case comparison is the post-injury version of Shaun Livingston. I'm talking about the one who's currently playing after regaining some of his old form. 

Livingston is a stellar defender, thanks partially to his own 6'7" frame, and he prefers to either use his athleticism or distributing skills rather than letting shots fly from the outside. 

Carter-Williams is one of those guys with a pretty high ceiling due to his physical tools, but he also has a low floor. Livingston is a bench player on a lackluster team, and that's where MCW will find himself if things don't work out. 

6. Alex Len

School: Maryland

Position: C

Age: 19

Vitals: 7'1", 255 pounds 

2012-13 Per-Game Stats: 11.9 points, 7.8 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.2 steals, 2.1 blocks

Best-Case Comparison: Brook Lopez

Alex Len's stock never looked better than it did against the Duke Blue Devils, when he absolutely dominated Mason Plumlee. During that contest, it looked like he could be the next big offensive center. 

The Terrapin product is a solid shooter with range on his jumper, and he has a nice soft touch around the basket. But taking into account his 7'1" frame and accompanying length, he's a disappointing rebounder. 

Len is a better athlete with more defensive potential than Lopez, but there's not a better comparison for this intriguing big-man prospect. 

Worst-Case Comparison: Robin Lopez

Still only 19 years old, Len has a lot of developing to do before he reaches his full potential. But just like everyone else coming into the NBA, there's always a chance that he leaves that potential unrealized. 

Sticking with the Lopez twins, Len's floor involves becoming a starting center in the league—but one who would be considered a liability on a contending team. He's not a particularly great passer at the moment, much like Robin, and he's a solid but ultimately limited defender. 

Len won't be a complete bust, but his worst-case comparison involves becoming someone you'd never write home about. 

5. Victor Oladipo

School: Indiana

Position: SG

Year: 21

Vitals: 6'4", 213 pounds

2012-13 Per-Game Stats: 13.6 points, 6.3 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 2.2 steals, 0.8 blocks

Best-Case Comparison: Andre Iguodala

Victor Oladipo will never be able to run an offense like Andre Iguodala occasionally does, but he must be compared to a well-rounded offensive player with three-point range, explosiveness and lockdown defensive skills. 

How many times have we seen Iggy drill a three, explode to the rim and shut down his opponent in the same game? If Oladipo pans out properly, we'll be seeing the same thing. 

Just like Iguodala, the Indiana product is fully capable of playing defense against a number of positions. He has the lateral quickness necessary to handle quicker guards, but he's also tough and strong enough to go to work in the post. Although, that's where he'll have the most trouble. 

Worst-Case Comparison: Tony Allen

Can you tell I'm pretty impressed with Oladipo's defensive skills? 

Even if his offense can't translate—and there is a slight chance that his massive jump during his junior season for the Hoosiers was a bit fluky—his defense certainly will. 

At worst, Oladipo will become a player with guaranteed playing time because his defense is way too valuable to leave on the bench. 

4. Ben McLemore

School: Kansas

Position: SG

Age: 20

Vitals: 6'5", 189 pounds

2012-13 Per-Game Stats: 15.9 points, 5.2 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.7 blocks

Best-Case Comparison: Ray Allen

Every year we seem to compare someone to Ray Allen, and it's usually inaccurate. Last year, it was Bradley Beal, simply because both players like to shoot three-pointers. 

This year, Ben McLemore legitimately compares to Allen.

Remember, the current Miami Heat sharpshooter was a great athlete in his prime, even if he wasn't on the same level that McLemore currently occupies. 

Like Allen, McLemore thrives coming off screens so that he can catch and shoot. He struggles to find his own shot, but his jumper is absolutely flawless when he spots up. He elevates well, and his form is picture-perfect to the point that even his misses tend to look good. 

Worst-Case Comparison: Ben Gordon

Another solid athlete who thrives as a scorer and prefers to shoot the ball from the outside, Ben Gordon is our worst-case comparison for the Kansas Jayhawk. 

McLemore is more athletic than Gordon, but they both have quick, short releases that allow them to get their jumpers off even with a hand in the face. And just as you don't want Gordon handling the ball, you don't want McLemore to be running the show either. 

At worst, McLemore will be a slightly undersized shooting guard who excels as a secondary offensive option. 

3. Otto Porter

School: Georgetown

Position: SF

Age: 19

Vitals: 6'9", 198 pounds

2012-13 Per-Game Stats: 16.2 points, 7.5 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.8 steals, 0.9 blocks

Best-Case Comparison: Tayshaun Prince

When you're talking about lanky forwards who thrive on both ends of the court, Tayshaun Prince should be one of the first names that springs to mind. And with a 7'1" wingspan to go along with his 6'9" frame, Otto Porter definitely qualifies as lanky. 

The small forward has a great—albeit unorthodox—shot, and he's fantastic without the ball in his hands. He also contests everything in his general vicinity and could eventually develop the bulk necessary to be more imposing in the post. 

Prince was a fantastic player during his prime, so don't think I'm comparing Porter to the Memphis version of the former champion. 

Worst-Case Comparison: Memphis Grizzlies Tayshaun Prince

Ah, but I am comparing him to that version. Just as a worst-case scenario, though. 

Prince isn't the same player he was in his prime. He's much more of a complementary piece and no longer possesses the physicality to be a consistent shutdown defender from tipoff to the final buzzer. 

The Grizz version has a nice mid-range shot still, although he's significantly more hesitant to use it. A great locker room guy with a well-rounded game, the small forward is valuable, but he's not a piece who can push a team to the next level. 

2. Trey Burke

School: Michigan

Position: PG

Age: 20

Vitals: 6'1", 187 pounds

2012-13 Per-Game Stats: 18.6 points, 3.2 rebounds, 6.6 assists, 1.6 steals, 0.5 blocks

Best-Case Comparison: Chris Paul

It's hard to watch Trey Burke run the show and not see a little bit of Chris Paul in him. He fully embodies the "floor general" moniker, just as CP3 currently does for the Los Angeles Clippers. 

Burke gets to the spots he desires, and he always makes the right decisions. A fantastic passer who looks to create for his teammates, the diminutive 20-year-old can also take over as a scorer, but he waits until it's necessary for him to do so.  

Just like Paul, Burke can completely control a game in a number of ways. 

Worst-Case Comparison: Jameer Nelson

Jameer Nelson has enjoyed a great NBA career, always playing like he deserves a starting role. At worst, Burke will settle in as a low-to-mid level starter at the professional level. 

He possesses a great shot from the outside and terrific passing skills, but much like Nelson, he usually plays below the rim. Each can elevate every once in a while, but those occurrences are fairly few and far between. 

Burke is the top point guard in this class, and he's a safe pick if you're looking for a guy with a pretty high floor. 

1. Nerlens Noel

School: Kentucky

Position: C

Age: 19

Vitals: 7'0", 206 pounds

2012-13 Per-Game Stats: 10.5 points, 9.5 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 2.1 steals, 4.4 blocks

Best-Case Comparison: Marcus Camby

While Marcus Camby was significantly bigger in his prime than Nerlens Noel is entering the NBA, the Kentucky big man has the frame necessary to bulk up. His broad shoulders indicate that we're going to see a much sturdier version of him in the future. 

Noel earns the Camby comparison because he has the potential to both anchor a defense and develop into an efficient scorer.

Camby was more than just a shot-blocker in his prime, and the flat-topped 7-footer has similarly impressive instincts. 

Worst-Case Comparison: Larry Sanders

Even if it takes Noel longer than expected to recover from his ACL injury, he's still going to become a fantastic interior defender at the next level. 

Much like Larry Sanders did during his breakout season with the Milwaukee Bucks, Noel plays with explosiveness off both his first and second jump, flies around the basket and thrives leaving "Spalding" imprints on the foreheads of opponents. 

Sanders is an offensive non-factor, unless he's grabbing a board and putting it up or finishing an alley-oop. If Noel doesn't develop more skill on that end of the court, he'll be filling a similar role for a long time.