Will Chris Davis' Power Surge Be Death of Miguel Cabrera's Triple Crown Repeat?

Miguel Cabrera is one of the greatest hitters of all time, the reigning AL MVP and has a chance to become the first player in the history of baseball to record back-to-back Triple Crowns.

Heading into play on Thursday, Cabrera sports a .368 average and has driven in 59 runs, the latter a product of hitting in the middle of a dynamic lineup and an insane .516 average with runners in scoring position.

While his 15 home runs are impressive, they aren't enough for the AL lead. In fact, Cabrera's current homer rate may not to bring him close to a second consecutive Triple Crown in 2013.

Instead, the raw power of Baltimore Orioles first baseman Chris Davis could spell the end of a Cabrera Triple Crown 2.0 watch this summer.

After launching two more home runs during a Wednesday night victory over the Washington Nationals, Davis has 19 long balls for the season.

Dating back to last September, Davis has 29 home runs in his last 80 games.

While some may be waiting for Davis to cool off, return to form as an all-or-nothing, strikeout-prone hitter with many holes in his swing, the advice here is to take his power surge seriously. In other words, don't hold your breath for Davis' power slump.

Since the start of the 2012 season, which includes five months of baseball before his September breakout, Davis has a .571 slugging percentage, good for third-best in the sport. Hitters that outperform Joey Votto, Mike Trout and Robinson Cano over that large of a span can't be considered flukes.

Furthermore, Davis' approach at the plate has preceded dynamic results. When diving into how his at-bats and game have matured, there's little reason to conclude a major dip is on the horizon.

Always blessed with big-time power, Davis wasn't selective enough at the dish to see it profile for more than short bursts in the big leagues.

That's all changed.

The following are Davis' yearly strikeout percentages, starting with his 2009 campaign: 35.8, 29.4, 30, 30.1 and 21.9. The improvement from 35 to 30 percent allowed Davis to become a viable major leaguer, but the leap from 30 to less than 22 percent has transformed him into a star.

According to ESPN Stats and Info, Davis has hit 22 home runs over the past two seasons on a two-strike count, most in the majors.

Due to the rockets hit off his bat, the Orioles first baseman has always posted sky-high BABIP (batting average on balls in play) rates and HR/FB ratios above league average. Power and line-drive rate were there, but he simply wasn't putting the ball in play enough to take advantage of it.

In 2013, he's hitting more fly balls than ever, striking out less than ever and, subsequently, watching more balls sail onto Eutaw Street at Oriole Park.

The dip in strikeouts can be directly attributed to an increase in contact percentage and swinging at less pitches out of the strike zone. As the 2013 season approaches June, it's becoming less and less likely that Davis' approach at the plate is a small sample size or prone to regression.

Sure, he may slow down a bit and see some fly balls land in outfielders' gloves at the warning track rather than over the wall, but plenty of long balls should fly out over the next four months.

Over his last 300 at-bats, dating back to August 2012, Davis has cranked 32 home runs. That's an average of a home run every 9.3 at-bats. The only names to top that over a full season: Ruth, Bonds, McGwire, Sosa and Thome.

At this point, Davis is more than a solid bet to hit 50 home runs this summer.

Now, back to Cabrera and his bid for a Triple Crown.

His AVG-HR-RBI victory trio last summer was buoyed by a career-high 44 home runs, but the lack of a 45-plus homer man elsewhere in the AL also helped him achieve the rare feat.

Whether fans want to admit it, achieving a Triple Crown has almost as much do to with other players' respective seasons as the star garnering the attention.

While Miggy is a star, he's not a raw power hitter. In fact, his career average, including 2012's 44 long balls, is only 35 home runs per season.

If Davis stays healthy, it will take many more than that for Cabrera to repeat.


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