French Open 2013: Odds of Each Major Contender Winning It All

There’s a strong chance that the 2013 French Open will be won by one of the top three seeds in the tournament: Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer or Rafael Nadal.

No one outside of those three has won at Roland Garros since 2004. Nadal has accounted for seven of the titles, while Federer won it all back in 2009. Djokovic, while winless at the French Open, has the championship on the tip of his tongue.

Djokovic, Federer and Nadal won’t have to worry about taking on Andy Murray either, as he withdrew from the tournament with a bad back, according to Christopher Clarey of The New York Times. With the No. 2 player in the world out, it increases the chances that one of the three stars wins it all.

But who of Djokovic, Federer and Nadal holds the best odds of taking the title in 2013? Let’s take a look at how each has done at Roland Garros in the past and what could be in store for them this time around.

Novak Djokovic, No. 1 Seed: 6-1 Odds

Djokovic enters the French Open looking for revenge. He’s never been able to win it all, but has gotten closer and closer in recent memory. He fell in the quarterfinals in 2010, the semifinals in 2011 and in the final—to Nadal—a year ago. 

If Djokovic is going to get revenge on Nadal, though, it won’t be in a finals rematch. They are on the same side of the bracket, meaning that if Djokovic is going to reach the final for the second straight year, he’ll likely have to top Nadal first. That’s pending that Nadal makes it that far, though.

Djokovic isn’t the best on clay, but did just win at Monte Carlo, topping his Spanish rival, Nadal. He didn’t have great performances in his other two clay tournaments this year, losing in the second round at the Madrid Open and in the quarterfinals at the Rome Open.

The French Open is the only Grand Slam tournament that Djokovic has yet to conquer, and you can bet that he’s hungry to do so in 2013. Whether that dream will become a reality this year doesn’t seem very likely, though.

Roger Federer, No. 2 Seed: 5-1 Odds

Federer doesn’t have an easy path to the French Open final, but it’s certainly easier than either of the two aforementioned stars. That’s because he’s basically on his own on the other side of the bracket.

Federer is also somewhat lucky that Andy Murray isn’t competing. Because of Murray’s withdrawal, Federer is the No. 2 seed and won’t have to face a top-five opponent until the semifinal. He could, however, play Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, the No. 6 seed, in the quarterfinals.

The Swiss right-hander hasn’t had a great year on clay thus far. He fell in the third round at the Madrid Open and couldn’t get past Nadal in the Rome Open final. But he is the only other player outside of Nadal to win at Roland Garros since 2004. Keep in mind that he defeated Robin Soderling, the No. 23 seed, in the championship that year.

Because of the way the other contenders are seeded, there’s a strong likelihood that Federer makes it to the French Open final. Winning it all over Nadal will be extremely difficult. Facing Djokovic in the championship would be preferred, but it still wouldn’t be a walk in the park.

Rafael Nadal, No. 3 Seed: 2-1 Odds

Nadal is the player at the French Open with a target on his back. He’s won it all more than anyone else in the Open Era—although Max Decugis did win eight times during the Amateur Era. He’s also looking to make it four straight titles at Roland Garros.

It shouldn’t be a surprise that Nadal has very good odds to win his eighth title this year. It certainly won’t be easy, though, considering he’s on the same side of the bracket as the top player in the world and the No. 1 seed in the tournament, Djokovic.

In order to reach the final, Nadal will likely have to go through Djokovic first. Neither has a very tough road to the semifinals, meaning a showdown between two of the best in tennis seems probable. Nadal does have the upper hand since the match will be on the clay, where he’s 13-3 in his career against the world’s No. 1.

Nadal has only lost one time in his career at the French Open and don’t expect 2013 to be the year where he falls a second time.