Roland Garros 2013: Most Likely Challengers to Threaten Big Four in French Open

On the clay courts of Roland Garros, it’s Rafael Nadal and the rest of the field.

The “King of Clay” has taken seven of the last eight French Open titles, failing only in 2009 when he made a fourth-round exit at the hands of Robin Soderling. Since that appearance, it’s been smooth sailing for the world's No. 4-ranked player. This year may be no different.

But Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic can’t be counted out. One half of tennis’ Big Four, the duo continues to dominate the sport. Both have experienced their share of disappointment of late, but it would be foolish to expect that neither is up to the task of winning another Grand Slam event.

But while they’ll be looking ahead to meeting Nadal later in the tournament, they should also be looking over their collective shoulder.

At 31, Federer is entering the twilight of his career. Djokovic is coming off two consecutive losses that came short of the semifinals, and both are already heavy underdogs to upend Rafa at Roland Garros.

But according to Christopher Clarey of The New York Times, Andy Murray has already withdrawn from the event, meaning things could get a lot more interesting with the draw yet to be determined.

If Federer and Djokovic are to cut through the field at Roland Garros, they will have to play much better than they have in recent events. Otherwise, the following three challengers could see to it that neither of them make a deep run at the French Open.

3. Stanislas Wawrinka (ATP No. 11)

Stanislas Wawrinka has never made it past the fourth round at the French Open, but the 28-year-old has a chance to change that this year.

Wawrinka is 15-4 on clay this year, including a win at the Portugal Open and a runner-up finish at the Madrid Open earlier in May. He may not be a popular pick to make a deep run at Roland Garros, but Wawrinka’s recent play is a good sign that he may break through that barrier in 2013.

The Swiss challenger’s success could depend heavily on the draw, however.

With Murray out and Nadal potentially securing the No. 3 seed, Federer may be the only top player standing in Wawrinka’s way in his pursuit of a finals appearance in the bottom half of the draw. FedEx looks fresher now than he did prior to his two-month layoff, but he certainly looks beatable.

If the 28-year-old Wawrinka finds himself opposite Nadal and Djokovic in the draw, his French Open title hopes could end in short order.

2. Tomas Berdych (ATP No. 6)

Like Wawrinka, the No. 6 player in the world has experienced his share of struggles at Roland Garros.

But Berdych also has the talent to turn his recent history at the French Open into a successful campaign this year. He made a semifinals appearance in each of his last two clay-court events (Madrid Open and Rome Masters) and is playing much better than his 8-4 clay-court record would indicate.

At the Monte Carlo, Berdych declared himself "fit and ready," per his Instagram, and he'll bring the same confidence to the French Open.

With a dominating forehand and tremendous power, Berdych is a matchup nightmare for many of the top players in the field. He may not be able to compete with Nadal on Roland Garros’ clay courts, but Djokovic and Federer should be on the lookout for the Czech challenger.

Berdych bested both top-ranked players at Wimbledon in 2010, and he’ll be looking to do the same at this year's French Open. Apart from the usual list of potential upset candidates, Berdych is one of the biggest threats to taking down Federer and Djokovic this year.

 

1. David Ferrer (ATP No. 5)

The “Big Four” may not be the most suitable moniker. David Ferrer’s impressive play—especially against Federer, Nadal, Murray and Djokovic—put him in the conversation to join that elite group of players.

Ten of Ferrer’s 20 singles titles have come on clay, and he’s poised for another big clay-court showing at Roland Garros this year. If he can build on his semifinals appearance at the 2012 French Open, this year’s title won’t be out of reach.

The 31-year-old already has a victory and two runner-up finishes on clay this year, and he’s showing no signs of slowing. Potentially the No. 4 seed with Murray having withdrawn, Ferrer will have a much more favorable draw to traverse as well.

Nadal bested Ferrer at the Madrid Open, but outside of Federer and Djokovic, there isn’t another player in the field with a better chance of taking down the King of Clay at Roland Garros.