Rafael Nadal's Strong Recent Play Should Make Him French Open Favorite
Rafael Nadal has had a trying year as injuries and illnesses have kept him off the court as much as he has been on it, but with his health seemingly squared away, Nadal should be installed as the French Open favorite.
After surprisingly losing to journeyman Lukas Rosol in the second round at Wimbledon last year, Nadal withdrew from the London Olympics with a knee injury. That ailment caused Nadal to miss the U.S. Open as well, and a virus kept him out of the 2013 Australian Open.
Nadal finally returned in February, however, and he has had plenty of success.
Nadal has reached the finals in all six of the tournaments he has competed in this year. He won four of those championship matches and has beaten the likes of Roger Federer, David Ferrer, Juan Martin Del Potro and others along the way. Three of Nadal's titles this year have come on clay, so it's safe to say that he is prepared for the French Open.
Winning the French Open has seemingly become second nature for Nadal.
Despite the fact that most tennis fans would probably categorize Nadal's 2012 season as a nightmarish one, he still managed to win his seventh French Open in eight years. Even after missing so much time due to injury, there is no doubt that Nadal should be considered the favorite to win for an eighth time in nine years.
Nadal's dominance on clay is unmatched. In fact, according to Alvaro Rama of Eurosport TV, Nadal has 39 career clay-court victories, while the rest of the top 10 has just 36 combined. That is a staggering stat considering the top 10 features elite players such as Federer, Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray as well as another clay-court specialist in Ferrer.
Since Nadal missed seven months because of his ailing knee, he is currently only No. 5 in the world rankings, according to ATPWorldTour.com. Nadal is clearly better than that, particularly on clay, but he will be forced to traverse a tougher road than usual at this year's French Open in all likelihood.
Wimbledon occasionally makes special seeding exceptions to make sure that top players don't have to meet earlier in the tournament than they should, but that won't be the case at the French Open, according to Mike Dawes of the Daily Mail. French Open director Gilbert Ysern reportedly shied away from making a seeding change to avoid potential backlash.
"It was said to be fiddling," he added. "What was supposed to be a strong symbol, a tribute, was seen as messy business."
It's certainly understandable that the powers-that-be at Roland Garros don't want to dish out an unfair advantage, but Nadal obviously deserves to be among the top-four seeds.
Even so, Nadal's seeding shouldn't affect his prospects of winning the tournament. He has to face the best players eventually, so it isn't a big deal if it happens a round earlier than usual.
There is no question that Nadal is fully back to health as he has lost just two matches this year and is moving as well as ever. Nadal was able to win the French last year despite the fact that he wasn't in top form, so another win appears to be on the horizon.
Perhaps Nadal isn't the best player in the world across every surface, but he has a huge advantage on clay thanks to his movement and spin.
Even if Nadal had to qualify for the French Open as a wild card for some reason, the smart money would still be on him. Nadal has won more French Opens than anyone in the modern era and all signs point to him adding to that total this year.
He is head and shoulders above the rest of the field on clay when he is healthy, and that appears to finally be the case. Nadal has already proven that he is back and better than ever, but another French Open title will serve as the exclamation point on his return.
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