Kentucky Derby Field 2013: Overhyped Horses Sure to Disappoint

Thanks to Wednesday evening’s post-position draw, the odds for each competitor in 2013 Kentucky Derby are finally available. While there will be minor movements between now and post time, it’s easy to tell which horses will remain long shots and those that will be favored on Saturday.

With that in mind, it’s time to start evaluating the field and eliminating some of the competitors with little chance of winning the Run for the Roses.

You can go ahead and clear out most of the 50-1 long shots and others that simply aren’t worth a big bet for obvious reasons. I’m here to identify a handful of colts with respectable lines that you need to avoid in order to win big in this event.

Keep reading to find out which thoroughbreds to ignore and why.

Charming Kitten: 20-1

Charming Kitten has been less than impressive during his prep career and somehow went from one of the longest shots in the pre-Derby pools to a respectable 20-1 after the draw.

It’s certainly not because of the No. 15 starting gate that this colt will be lining up at prior to gun of the “Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports,” as only a handful of winners have come out from that stall to win it—including Fusaichi Pegasus, the favorite in 2000.

Charming Kitten is nowhere near as talented as Fusaichi Pegasus and is simply too slow to win this. His endurance is nothing to write home about either, as he hasn’t shown much ability as a stalker against speedier competition.

Stay away from this colt on Saturday and don’t waste your money.

Normandy Invasion: 12-1

Normandy Invasion is a great bet—to place.

He’s finished second in a number of races and won his only race—his maiden—back in November of last year. The colt has two second-place finishes under his belt and two fifth-place showings, which don’t bode well for his chances of winning the Run for the Roses.

Such an untested contender would be an okay choice and possibly even a favorite with another win under its belt, but that isn’t the case here.

Normandy Invasion has the speed and stamina to hit the board, which his something I’d advise betting Normandy Invasion to do. He’s a perfect horse to round out your exacta, trifecta and superfecta boxes, but to-win is too risky.

Orb: 7-2

Orb is the favorite in the 2013 Kentucky Derby, but that isn’t a good omen.

In recent years, favorites simply haven’t fared well and only two have conquered Churchill Downs since 1980—the aforementioned Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000 and Smarty Jones in 2004.

The burden of being the favorite will certainly impact how the trainer, jockey and horse feel—even if it’s not something they are willing to admit.

Factor in that undefeated Verrazano, now going off at 4-1, is arguably the strongest and quickest horse in the field and you can already see how Orb is primed for an “upset.”

2013 Kentucky Derby | Churchill Downs, Louisville, Ky. | Purse: $2.18 Million | Grade I | Distance: 10 furlongs | Post Time: 7-7:30 p.m. ET

NAME	TRAINER	CURRENT LINE
Black Onyx	Kelly Breen	50-1
Charming Kitten	Todd Pletcher	20-1
Falling Sky	John Terranova, II	50-1
Fear the Kitten (AE)	Mike Maker	50-1
Frac Daddy	Kenny McPeek	50-1
Giant Finish	Tony Dutrow	50-1
Goldencents	Doug O'Neill	5-1
Golden Soul	Dallas Stewart	50-1
Itsmyluckyday	Edward Plesa, Jr.	15-1
Java's War	Kenneth McPeek	15-1
Lines of Battle	Aidan O'Brien	30-1
Mylute	Tom Amoss	15-1
Normandy Invasion	Chad Brown	12-1
Orb	Claude McGaughey III	7-2
Overanalyze	Todd Pletcher	15-1
Oxbow	D. Lukas	30-1
Palace Malice	Todd Pletcher	20-1
Revolutionary	Todd Pletcher	10-1
Verrazano	Todd Pletcher	4-1
Vyjack	Rudy Rodriguez	15-1
Will Take Charge	D. Lukas	20-1

*Odds via KentuckyDerby.com, current as of Thursday, May 2 at 7 a.m. ET