2009 NFL Draft: QB Rankings

We kick off our 2009 NFL Draft player rankings with the quarterback spot. In reading below, you'll quickly find that we don't think this is a bumper crop of quarterbacks. If not for the Detroit Lions (whose best quarterback the last 20 years has been Erik Kramer) having the No. 1 pick it is unlikely a quarterback would be selected until a quarter of the way through the first round. There is just no surefire gunslinger in this year's draft.

Our rankings are based purely on pro potential and not where they are expected to be drafted. They will also differ form the experts in many ways. Case in point, you'll note Rhett Bomar (or other player from non-FBS schools) is not on the list. It's not that we don't give a damn about Rhett; rather we haven't seen this lad since he was booted from Oklahoma for getting paid but not working a job one summer.

So we can't even pretend to know what he's been up to since the summer of 2006. Though we would like to know how we can get one of those Rhett Bomar-type jobs. For reference we've included the ranking and round projection from CBS Sports/NFLDraftScout.com gurus as a comparison.

For more see our 2009 NFL Draft Player Rankings. And away we go...

1. Mark Sanchez, Southern California
(Ht: 6-2, Wt: 227, 40 Time: 4.93, CBS Rank: 2, CBS Rd Proj: 1st)

Sanchez’s status as a top quarterback reflects more on our general pessimism over this quarterback class than it does our unbridled enthusiasm over the former USC signal caller. Sanchez is a good quarterback who has operated in a program that only needs to play its games on Sundays to make the transformation complete. He’s performed well in big games, and he has the prototypical size and arm coveted by NFL bigwigs.

Why then do we have such trepidation regarding the latest USC poster boy? Because his coach didn’t think he should go. Pete Carroll, a man who could write the book on things to say and do to impress recruits, knows that badmouthing pro decisions made by his players can backfire.

But he expressed disagreement with Sanchez’s call anyway. And with Aaron Corp and Matt Barkley looking fully capable of continuing the fine QB tradition in the Land of Troy, we don’t think this was sour grapes on the part of Coach Carroll. We just believe that Carroll didn’t believe Sanchez was ready. And who are we to disagree?

2. Josh Freeman, Kansas State
(Ht: 6-6, Wt: 248, 40 Time: 4.9, CBS Rank: 3, CBS Rd Proj: 1st)

Freeman is Mr. High Risk-High Reward in the 2009 NFL Draft. Having watched him a great deal over the past three years one aspect of his development stands out, and this is his ability to tuck it and run.

Freeman’s first two seasons in Manhattan saw him total –61 yards rushing and six touchdowns. During his junior campaign Freeman ran for 404 yards with 14 touchdowns on the ground. So, you ask, what does this development have to do with a man who will be paid millions to sit back and wing the pigskin?

Freeman’s ranking is based on long-term upside. He is far from polished or NFL ready. But few in this class possess his size, arm strength and mobility. Checking in at 6'6" and 250 lbs. Freeman will not only be able to shed pocket pressure, but he’ll buy a little time with his feet.

If the right QB coach/offensive coordinator gets his chance with this guy then we’ll have a stud NFL quarterback on our hands. If we see a prolonged holdout and an OC hell bent on placing a square peg in a round hole then we’ll have another first-round flameout.

3. Matthew Stafford, Georgia
(Ht: 6-2, Wt: 225, 40 Time: 4.81, CBS Rank: 1, CBS Rd Proj: 1st)

Ron Jaworski and others will scream that Stafford “can make all the throws” and all that good stuff, and it’s certainly true. No quarterback in this class seems to present a more complete resume: three-year starter in the rough and tumble SEC, big wins in tough locales, and top-level coaching all along. However there just isn’t the slam-dunk element with one John Matthew Stafford.

Stafford’s performance in the 2009 Capital One Bowl is a microcosm of his career. He was 6-for-14 with an interception in the first half, displaying an inability to handle blitzes and likely causing war room personnel to see visions of Heath Shuler. Screen passes were thrown in the dirt and deep balls were 15 yards out of bounds.

And then he proceeded to emerge from the tunnel and produce a Troy Aikman second half performance, completing 14-of-17 for three scores while dropping dimes into the hands of covered receivers. Yes, some may say it's ridiculous to use one ball game as a barometer, but it was his last performance against a defense that certainly didn't wow opponents with its athleticism. And we expected to see a bit more.

4. Mike Teel, Rutgers
(Ht: 6-3, Wt: 225, 40 Time: 5.12, CBS Rank: 17, CBS Rd Proj: 7th+)

In a few years this kid may emerge as “Teel the Steal” in drafting circles. I know you’re thinking that Teel operated in the Big East, a conference that doesn’t offer the stiffest competition on a weekly basis.

But if you’ve seen Mike Teel enough you’ll realize his arm is much stronger than many believe, and he’s not afraid to go downfield. And his completion and YPA average are right there with Matt Stafford’s over the past two seasons.

Teel and the Scarlet Knights struggled to begin 2008, as the transformation from a Ray Rice-led, run-first offense to one that wanted to wing it took a while. But when it clicked it really clicked. Teel tossed 22 scores in his final six games, and the yardage total shows a quarterback that wasn’t just dumping off passes and watching his backs scamper.

He’s better than many think, and he throws a very nice deep pass, a trait that appears to be coming back with a vengeance in the NFL.

5. Nate Davis, Ball State
(Ht: 6-2, Wt: 226, 40 Time: 4.95, CBS Rank: 8, CBS Rd Proj: 5th)

We like Nate Davis’ ability to throw a very nice deep ball and think he brings a very nice skill set to Sunday. Yes his fumble problems at the end of the 2008 campaign don’t help, nor does he possess ideal size. He’s relatively mobile, and glove or not Davis can throw the football. It may not be in 2009 or 2010, but at some point Nate Davis will make an impact.

6. Graham Harrell, Texas Tech
(Ht: 6-2, Wt: 223, 40 Time: 5.07, CBS Rank: 14, CBS Rd Proj: 7th+)

Graham Harrell will not be the one to entirely debunk the belief that Texas Tech quarterbacks can’t succeed on Sunday, but of all the Red Raider quarterbacks to leave the Mike Leach nest over the years Harrell has the best chance to make a major impact.

Like other Tech quarterbacks, accuracy isn’t really a question, nor is his size. The unknown is Harrell’s ability to get up off his ass after being dropped. We have no official numbers, but his sack-to-attempt ratio has to be one of the lowest in history. And when he stares down angry men that are bigger and faster than anything he’s ever seen we wonder how he’ll handle such a situation.

7. Patrick White, West Virginia
(Ht: 6-0, Wt: 197, 40 Time: 4.55, CBS Rank: 4, CBS Rd Proj: 2nd+)

About a decade after Kordell Stewart became “Slash” we may have an even more intriguing option. Despite a good combine showing, Pat White will not be a regular quarterback in the National Football League.

Trust us on this one. But some team’s offensive coaches are going to grab White, a case of beer and some greasy pizza. And when they’re done with the late-night meeting fans of some to-be-determined team will be in for some really exciting sets.

A team that incorporates Pat White wreaking havoc from the slot, backfield and under center will become much more dynamic, and it will help if said team has a regular quarterback that can occasionally be split out wide and be used as more than just an awkward bystander during pass plays.

8. Stephen McGee, Texas A&M
(Ht: 6-3, Wt: 225, 40 Time: 4.61, CBS Rank: 5, CBS Rd Proj: 3rd+)

Standing 6'3" and checking in at about 225 pounds Stephen McGee looks like a quarterback. Good arm and above average wheels, and he’s coming from a system favored by former NFL coach Mike Sherman. Of course McGee is hurt by the fact that this offensive scheme (West Coast) lost favor about ten years ago.

The gutty McGee will make a few bucks holding a clipboard, but his collegiate performance gives little indication that he can make a serious impact.

9. Tom Brandstater, Fresno State
(Ht: 6-5, Wt: 220, 40 Time: 4.87, CBS Rank: 9, CBS Rd Proj: 5th+)

This is my real flyer. Brandstater possesses great size, and he’s got a great deal of experience leading an offense. The numbers don’t jump off the page and he needs to improve his accuracy. But over time our gut tells us this youngster could have an impact.

10. Rudy Carpenter, Arizona State
(Ht: 6-2, Wt: 218, 40 Time: 4.89, CBS Rank: 18, CBS Rd Proj: 7th+)

Normally when we talk of players that have taken a collegiate pounding we’re referring to overused running backs. However in Carpenter we have a quarterback that has served as a human punching bag for the last three years. Rudy Carpenter was sacked so many times while a Sun Devil that his offensive lineman told him to duck prior to the snap. Still, Rudy appears content to try and keep it going.

Nice size and decent mobility make Carpenter a candidate to hang around for a while. It will be interesting to what he can do behind an NFL offensive line. But we wonder if another huge hit may have Carpenter sucking down brewskies in grad school.

11. Willie Tuitama, Arizona
(Ht: 6-3, Wt: 234, 40 Time: 5, CBS Rank: 23, CBS Rd Proj: n/a)

We like Willie T, but we’re thinking that this is another whose participation in a spread attack will likely bite him on draft day. Tuitama overcame concussion worries early in his career to toss for over 3,000 yards in each of his last two seasons. He cut his interceptions as a senior, and he leaves Tucson on a high note.

Still it’s hard to see Tuitama having a huge impact on Sunday. Getting the ball to a WR like Mike Thomas underneath and watching him run away from others contributed to a great deal of his passing yardage.

12. Curtis Painter, Purdue
(Ht: 6-3, Wt: 225, 40 Time: 4.87, CBS Rank: 15, CBS Rd Proj: 7th+)

Painter, who seemed to be in West Lafayette as long as Joe Tiller, is more Kyle Orton than Drew Brees. He has nice size and he’s thrown a bunch of passes over the years. But it’s hard to imagine a NFL system where he can fit and succeed.

13. Cullen Harper, Clemson
(Ht: 6-3, Wt: 225, 40 Time: 4.95, CBS Rank: 16, CBS Rd Proj: 7th+)

We chuckled in the winter of 2008 when Cullen Harper submitted his name to the NFL Draft Advisory Board. In retrospect it may have been the thing to do. The 6'2" Harper returned for his senior season and things didn’t go so well. And he likely didn’t make too favorable of an impression on any future employers when he said that former Clemson coach Tommy Bowden’s firing was “what he deserved”.

Harper is among a bunch of quarterbacks with decent size but questionable arm strength and accuracy.

14. Hunter Cantwell, Louisville
(Ht: 6-5, Wt: 235, 40 Time: 5.22, CBS Rank: 11, CBS Rd Proj: 6th+)

Cantwell waited his turn to play at Louisville, and when he got to the buffet line he was left surrounded by nothing but green beans. The team was lousy and his numbers weren’t impressive.

The fact that he’s 6'5" will help get him drafted, but it’s his accuracy issues (even with a tiny YPA average) that will keep him from making an impact on Sunday.

15. John Parker Wilson, Alabama
(Ht: 6-2, Wt: 219, 40 Time: 4.75, CBS Rank: 7, CBS Rd Proj: 4th+)

JPW has a shot to wear a headset over the next few years, though it’s unlikely he’ll do much more than that. He’s another of a large number of 6'2" quarterbacks with questionable arm strength and decision-making. He’ll go down in Alabama history as a solid manager of games.

16. Chase Holbrook, New Mexico State
(Ht: 6-4, Wt: 242, 40 Time: 5.12, CBS Rank: 34, CBS Rd Proj: n/a)

The New Mexico State product put up some very nice numbers as a senior. Like Cullen Harper he considered making an NFL jump a year ago, but unlike Harper it may not have made a difference. His years working under Hal Mumme mean Holbrook is very effective operating in high-octane college offenses, but the NCAA says you can’t get paid for that and eventually you have to stop. He makes our list due to his size.

17. Brian Hoyer, Michigan State
(Ht: 6-2, Wt: 215, 40 Time: 5.02, CBS Rank: 13, CBS Rd Proj: 7th+)

Scouts that have fallen in love with Brian Hoyer have been very selective in their praise and criticism. Here’s another guy that the experts claim “can make all the throws” and shows very good arm strength. That has never been questioned. However, they neglect to mention that a number of said throws will be high and behind his intended receiver.

Hoyer has the ability to be a serviceable quarterback in the NFL (i.e. backup). He probably has a better chance of hanging around than many ranked ahead of him. However the odds of him becoming a starter are slim.

18. Joe Ganz, Nebraska
(Ht: 6-0, Wt: 202, 40 Time: 4.94, CBS Rank: 38, CBS Rd Proj: n/a)

If Joe Ganz were one of those many 6-2 quarterbacks then his spot on this board would be much higher. Ganz did a nice job of switching from the Bill Callahan system to the one favored by Bo Pelini, and he was able to post a few games with huge numbers. But he’ll have a hard time sticking in a league where 6'0" quarterbacks just don’t seem to last, let alone thrive, unless the stars really align.

19. David Johnson, Tulsa
(Ht: 6-2, Wt: 219, 40 Time: 4.92, CBS Rank: 19, CBS Rd Proj: n/a)

Paul Smith accounted for 60 touchdowns for Tulsa in 2007 and all he could muster was a practice squad cup of coffee. David Johnson accounted for 49 scores and we see a similar fate. Like Smith, Johnson lacks enough arm strength and mobility to make a NFL mark.

20. Chase Daniel, Missouri
(Ht: 6-0, Wt: 218, 40 Time: 4.79, CBS Rank: 24, CBS Rd Proj: n/a)

There is no better indication of the fact that college performance isn’t the No. 1 determiner on draft day than Chase Daniel. He’s done nothing but lead a program to big wins while producing huge numbers. And he’ll have a difficult time in his quest to become gainfully employed while playing football. He just doesn’t have the size or arm strength.

In a sense Chase Daniel reminds me of Major Harris who played for West Virginia about 20 years ago. He’ll always be a college football legend, but NFL success will not follow