Predicting If Each Premier League Team Will Be Better or Worse Next Season

The Premier League 2012-13 season is rapidly closing in on its finale. At one end of the table is the not-so-close or exciting title race, pretty much over and done with a month ago, and at the other still a scrap for survival and relegation.

European places are also still up for grabs—though, inevitably, a few sides are now more or less drifting along somewhere in the middle, hoping for a higher finish or merely getting the last win or two to avoid any lingering worries about the drop.

Already, minds and plans are turning to next season; fresh starts, fresh dreams and fresh ideas about improving the squad over summer and making a real fist of things in 2013-14.

Plans are great, but they don't always come off. Here's a run-down on who might be vastly improved next season—and who faces a disappointing come-down from this term.

Arsenal

This season:

Arsenal aren't done yet—they are pushing hard to claim one of those Champions League places and, on current form, have got to be the favourites. They are fifth at present but, with a game in hand, they could yet end up third.

Key summer activity:

Manager Arsene Wenger has just one year remaining on his deal. Does he stick and try to finally end his long, long trophyless run? Or are Arsenal going to decide a change is needed? He won't be sacked, but he might decide enough is enough.

On the playing field, Arsenal have a relatively good squad but still lack that real quality to win the league. Are they going to sign the couple of £20 million-rated players that will change that quality? Probably not.

Next term:

Hard to see anything but more of the same. A few faces might change, but Arsenal will be a top-fourish side, probably not win anything and frustrate more fans.  

Verdict: Worse, ever-so-slightly.

Aston Villa

This season:

It's been a tough year for Villa. A very young side has been horribly exposed in some games, but manager Paul Lambert and his players have gradually clawed their way back to consistency and resiliency of sorts.

They are still battling the drop, but, on recent form, they are going to get out of that fight. A 15th-place finish or so is still on the cards if they keep up their ability to find three points.

Key summer activity:

Keeping hold of striker Christian Benteke would be job No.1.

Big money might tempt a sale, but a willingness to sign a new contract on the part of the forward would be even better. Adding two or three good players to some improving young lads could have a big, big difference. Brad Guzan is another important name to keep hold of.

Next term:

Could very much go two ways. They might get £12 or £15 million for Benteke, but can they replace his goals? If he goes, restructuring will be made that much harder. If he stays, Villa should continue a progressive rebuild and be significantly stronger next season.  

Verdict: Better

Chelsea

This season:

Coming off the back of an FA Cup and Champions League double winning campaign, Chelsea should have been right up there at the top of the league.

Instead, they've been fighting just to stay in the top four, which they are still not guaranteed yet. Where they end up could determine much of the next section, though another FA Cup Final remains a possibility.

Key summer activity:

Ashley Cole is staying, Frank Lampard apparently isn't, and who knows which manager or managers will be at Stamford Bridge next season. Almost certainly, Rafa Benitez won't.

Getting the boss right this time is surely key to the consistency and continued development of the talented young attackers in the side in particular. Its also important in terms of challenging over the whole season, not breaking it down into August-December and January-May.

Another strong defender wouldn't go amiss either, while questions remain around striker Fernando Torres.

Next term:

All depends on the manager. If it's Jose Mourinho, you can almost guarantee Chelsea will be involved in the title fight. Anyone else will have to prove themselves more worthy of six months than Roberto Di Matteo, Andre Villas-Boas or Luiz Felipe Scolari did.  

Verdict: Better, somehow.

Everton

This season:

Everton are just about going to miss out on the top four again but look a good bet for sixth. That represents a good season again for the Toffees, who show good consistency and quality without quite having the extra class to get into those Champions League places.

Key summer activity:

David Moyes, first and foremost. Is the manager staying or not? If he does, expect one or two good additions as always. If not, it could be open season. Getting the new boss right is very much the most important decision Everton will have had in a decade.

Next term:

Again, dependent on Moyes' future. If he remains in place, Everton will finish fifth, sixth or seventh again. If he leaves, the unknown will represent an exciting but unpredictable chasm of possibilities for the Blues—and that could lead to a season of imbalance and learning for all involved.  

Verdict: Worse—but only if Moyes departs. Around the same if he stays.

Fulham

This season:

Steadily impressive is how Fulham's season could be termed.

Their usual poor away form has been tempered once more by strong performances at Craven Cottage. Martin Jol had to see a couple of key men depart last year but has done well to keep his side in the top half.

Key summer activity:

Some of Fulham's men this season are only on loan, so their futures need to be resolved—including right-back Sascha Riether and midfielder Urby Emanuelson.

The usual turnover should see two or three leave and a similar number come in, but it should be a case of building on what's there for Fulham.

Next term:

It will be hard for Fulham to maintain this position in the table unless they spend a fair amount in the summer or pick up some real quality bargains. Those below them will likely improve or at least not be as disappointing. They won't have a poor season but not top 10.  

Verdict: Worse.

Liverpool

This season:

A season of excitement and frustration for Liverpool. They have hovered around mid-table, threatened to burst into the top four and in the end, settled somewhere in the middle. Sixth or seventh is where they will end the campaign, barring a perfect (or horrible) end to the year.

Key summer activity:

Keeping hold of Luis Suarez. Having only signed a new deal a year ago, Suarez should stick around for one more campaign, but if the Reds still don't make the top four, he will likely be off. If funds are not forthcoming this summer, the manager may even decide to let him go this year—though it's hard to see how that would benefit Liverpool at all.

Defensive players will primarily be the concern for incoming deals, while a No.10 still appears to be a requisite for Brendan Rodgers too.

Next term:

To keep hold of their best players, Liverpool must break into the top four in 2013-14. Whether that becomes a possibility depends on how well they choose their targets over summer. Either way, performances since January have generally been on the up, and that shouldn't change.  

Verdict: Better.

Manchester City

This season:

Disappointment is the most obvious conclusion, having won the Premier League last season. Roberto Mancini's men have been off the pace all season, not playing as well as a year previous and failing to build on their squad. Even so, second place isn't bad, is it?

Key summer activity:

Mancini will be desperate to get funds to improve with key signings this time around. However, City might yet decide that he's not the man who gets to spend them.

Manager, central midfielder, wide attacker, forward. Those appear to be City's main priorities to sort out this summer.

Next term:

One thing is for sure, City's boardroom will be expecting an improvement. Whether that stretches to bringing in big names in summer or expecting an improvement of what is already there is another matter. City need better direction on the pitch next season though.  

Verdict: Better.

Manchester United

This season:

Without seeming to play at the very top of their capabilities, United have absolutely walked the Premier League title this season. A strong squad with plenty of depth should allow challenges on multiple fronts, so although the league win will be cherished and appreciated, is that enough for one of the biggest clubs around?

Key summer activity:

No managerial changes on the horizon here. United will be looking to bring in the one or two names that could make a small difference in the biggest games. Wilfried Zaha is a done deal, but United will seemingly also be looking for another top striker.

Next term:

They will challenge for the league title as always, but Alex Ferguson will also be desperate to make a big attempt to win trophies elsewhere. The Champions League will, of course, be the aim, but what about the FA Cup? United haven't won that for a decade.  

Verdict: Better.

Newcastle United

This season:

After an impressive 2011-12, Newcastle have been very disappointing this season. They currently linger just five points above the relegation zone, though they shouldn't be in much danger of the drop. Injuries may have affected them, but, quite simply, they haven't been as good.

Key summer activity:

Following the departure in January of Demba Ba, it is probable that Newcastle's main summer work will be in keeping hold of the likes of Yohan Cabaye, Davide Santon and even new arrival Moussa Sissoko. They will bring in two or three new players too (not necessarily all French) and will look for a big improvement next year.

Next term:

Given the money they have spent over the past two seasons or so, Newcastle should not be settling for anything lower than a top-half finish. They have the players and the depth for it, so expectations will be firmly set on heading back somewhere toward the top eight.  

Verdict: Better.

Norwich City

This season:

Norwich have been consistently inconsistent, as they say. A few good runs of results have meant they have never been in any danger of going down, but, similarly, they have had poor winless streaks too—like the current one, which has seen one win in the last 10.

The Canaries need another win or so to be sure of staying up, but that should be achieved without too much fuss.

Key summer activity:

Has the best summer deal already been done? Somehow, nobody quite knows how, Norwich have already wrapped up the £10 million signing of Sporting Lisbon striker Ricky van Wolfswinkel, who will join in summer.

That is a top signing for a bottom-half team and shows remarkable intent in the transfer window. How much more money will they get to splash? City might be wishing they had let Grant Holt move to Aston Villa for £7 million or so last summer given the season he's had.

Next term:

Depends who else comes in. Norwich certainly need a stronger defence, and though they play good football at times, they are lightweight in midfield. Carrow Road will make for interesting viewing over the summer.  

Verdict: Better, after a first year under Chris Hughton.

Queens Park Rangers

This season:

Managerial changes, massive spending, four wins all season. It's been horrific.

Key summer activity:

Six games left and seven points from safety, the odds are that QPR are going down this season. And, in that case, the key activity in summer is offloading the likes of Jose Bosingwa, Chris Samba and Loic Remy off the wage bill, which would almost certainly be unsustainable in the Championship.

Feasibly, an entire squad rebuild might have to take place.

Next term:

This squad in the Championship would probably make it to 100 points, but this squad won't be in the Championship. It could get very messy at Loftus Road if they are not careful.  

Verdict: Worse. No bouncing back straight away for QPR.

Reading

This season:

A debut season back in the top flight looks destined to end in disappointment, with the Royals bottom of the table and eight points from safety—as well as having the worst goal difference in the league. A change of manager was probably more for the long-term view than to save themselves this season.

Key summer activity:

Building on what they've got. Reading don't have too many star names, so they shouldn't be forced into sales but rather will try and make sure they can come straight back up next season. A few good additions and a positive attack on the transfer market and they could be back in 16 months.

Next term:

It's always hard to judge how a squad will react to relegation, but Reading have a number of strong characters in their squad and, having had a taste of top flight action, they should be looking to bounce back.

Verdict: Better, but in the Championship.

Southampton

This season:

Southampton were already looking good to stay up before the surprising change of manager, but Mauricio Pochettino has made a fine start to life in the Premier League. Currently 11th place, Saints could even go on to claim a top-half finish, but anything 14th and above is a major success anyway.

Key summer activity:

Morgan Schneiderlin is tied down to a long-term deal, while Jay Rodriguez only joined a year ago. Keeping hold of those two, Rickie Lambert, Adam Lallana, Luke Shaw and perhaps goalkeeper Artur Boruc, who is still improving, will be their main aims. Perhaps one might be sold to raise more funds, but the future looks very bright for Southampton, who will strengthen further in summer.

Next term:

More of the same, please. Fast-flowing, attacking football, a willingness to press high and a good mix of home-grown and foreign talent have made Southampton one of the best sides to watch in the past few months. They'll be looking for another 12th-or-above finish, no doubt.  

Verdict: Better.

Stoke City

This season:

Despite their lack of admirers, there wouldn't have been too many who would have picked Stoke to go down this season. But with six games to go, they are now just three points above the relegation zone and have won one game of the last 13 in the league. This season is not over for the Potters just yet.

Key summer activity:

Deciding whether the time is right to replace manager Tony Pulis. If not, he needs to show he can get far more out of his players. If they do, what happens next? Stoke are built to play one way only, and it is not immediately clear which manager is available to improve on a squad of that type.

Next term:

First, they have to survive. They should, just about, but it is not clear cut. Then Stoke have to find a way of integrating better players, finding a better method on the pitch and winning more matches to get back into the middle group of league teams. Either way, there's a lot to get through for a club not used to change recently.  

Verdict: Worse.

Sunderland

This season:

It's been a downward spiral of disappointment which has no end in sight. Except, you know, the end of the season. Despite spending almost £60 million in the last two years, Sunderland are only out of the relegation zone on goal difference as things stand.

Key summer activity:

All depends on how the season ends. Sunderland, in 17th and safe, are level on points with Wigan, in 18th, which leads to relegation. Over the last six matches, Sunderland have taken two points, Wigan, 10.

Unless new manager Paolo Di Canio arrests the slide pronto, Sunderland are gone. In that case, the activity in summer is offloading some of that £60 million worth of new talent, starting with Steven Fletcher. They might need another new boss, too.

Next term:

It's almost certainly going to be in the Championship. Even if they go down, the Black Cats may choose to keep Di Canio on for a season to try and get back up. The team is probably going to look very different though.  

Verdict: Worse.

Swansea City

This season:

In came Michael Laudrup as manager and Michu (and others) on the playing staff, and Swansea look every bit the established Premier League outfit they did last season, their debut campaign. A League Cup win has been the highlight, but lows have been few and far between anyway. Sealing a top-half finish will be the icing on the cake.

Key summer activity:

Keeping those at the club beyond the transfer window, including the manager. They'll also need to add another forward after letting Danny Graham go and the unlikelihood of Michu having another near-20 goal season.

Next term:

Again, a team that will be looking for continual progression. Swansea have a good way of playing the game and have added quality year on year, which makes further growth even more difficult. They won't struggle by any means, but with European football to balance, it could be a little less comfortable.  

Verdict: Worse, but not by too much to worry about.

Tottenham Hotspur

This season:

A positive debut season for Andre Villas-Boas and his merry men is in danger of imploding, with Spurs' top-four fate looking decidedly uneven at present. One win in the last four has seen them go from almost reaching City in second, to nervously watching Arsenal in fifth. Still, they have time to consolidate a Champions League berth for next season.

Key summer activity:

To state the blindingly obvious and repetitive, Spurs will want to keep hold of Gareth Bale. If they do, great for them. If they don't, they should have about £30-£40 million with which to strengthen the team. Given AVB's targets so far, such as Lloris, Holtby, Dembele, Vertonghen, et al, that would be far from terrible.

Next term:

There will only be one target for Tottenham next year, in the second season under Villas-Boas' watchful eye, and that will be to reach the top four. With or without Bale, that is looking a good probability.

Verdict: Better.

West Bromwich Albion

This season:

West Brom have had an up and down season, but in the main, it has been impressive and pleasing for the Baggies and their fans. They currently lie eighth, a good first season for the new manager Steve Clarke.

Key summer activity:

Romelu Lukaku's loan spell will end; that is the first issue to address in summer. West Brom will also need to see if Peter Odemwingie still has a significant part to play and likely try to systematically strengthen the rest of their team.

Next term:

WBA will look to continue progressing, of course, but Clarke will be tested in both his ability in the transfer market again and also in his consistency in preparing and improving the team. The "first season" excitement will have worn off, and, arguably, he has taken West Brom to a glass ceiling in his debut season. Can WBA overtake Everton, Liverpool, Arsenal, et al?  

Verdict: Better team...but worse league position.

West Ham United

This season:

West Ham have been typically difficult to beat at home and typically poor away from Upton Park this season. As with most Sam Allardyce teams, they are strong, effective, hard to break down but lacking in genuine on-the-ball quality to move out of the lower reaches of the league. All in all, a more than acceptable first season back in the top flight.

Key summer activity:

Allardyce's own future has to be resolved, and then West Ham have a decision to make over their main striker's job. Andy Carroll's loan will end, Modibo Maiga hasn't impressed and, well, then there's Carlton Cole. A new manager may necessitate further new additions, depending on style and systems preferred.

Next term:

West Ham should be pretty steady. Summer business could go either way, but, all in all, they have committed owners and a passionate fan base, two important ingredients in sustainable expenditure. It might be a fairly different starting XI in place, but—give or take the odd two places either way—West Ham will finish in about the same league position next season.  

Verdict: The same. Maybe slightly better.

Wigan Athletic

This season:

After a very normal, dismal first half of the season, Wigan are now midway through their very normal, middle of the road, exciting and last-ditch escape to safety from relegation. They're leaving it late, still in the drop zone with seven games left, but they could still finish as high as 15th or so. Great football at times, very technical players, interesting tactics and a horribly insecure defence—Wigan make for great watching on any given week. Unless you support them, perhaps.

Key summer activity:

Roberto Martinez seems to be linked with different jobs every summer, so that may again be a factor. So far though, he has stuck at his guns and continues to show loyalty to Wigan. They'll have to improve again their defence and maybe seal a long-term deal for goalkeeper Joel.

Next term:

Presuming the usual launch to safety is successful, Wigan will once again have their work cut out to stay up next season. They simply don't have the squad, or the funds, to create a top-half team. Whether Martinez can find further recruits to maintain Wigan's safety is the key question. Verdict: Worse.

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