Assigning Odds to Every Potential Rams First-Round Pick

With just several weeks remaining before the highly anticipated 2013 NFL draft, the St. Louis Rams are weighing their options. 

Armed with the No. 16 and No. 22 overall picks, the Rams have plenty of first-round ammunition and are in a particularly ideal position, especially since this draft lacks elite top-10 talent but has a surplus of intriguing prospects worthy of mid first-round picks. 

The only obstacle now is determining which players will slip out of the top 15, as well as which players will pan out in the long run. 

Obviously, no one knows what the actual game plan is, but there have been a number of prospects that have been frequently associated with St. Louis over the last two months. 

But which prospect will most likely wind up under the arch?

Just imagine a percentage pie. How big of a slice does each potential Rams target get? 

Read on to view the top targets and see their odds for joining the Rams. 

35 Percent: WR Tavon Austin, West Virginia

Tavon Austin is defying all odds by nearing top-10 territory despite standing at only 5'8" and 174 pounds.

It's possible that Tavon is merely the safest pick in a horrendous year for rookie wide receivers, but there's no questioning his incredible agility and blazing breakaway speed. Austin had back-to-back seasons of over 1,000 receiving yards at West Virginia, including 1,932 yards from scrimmage in 2012. 

The short man is no Calvin Johnson, but his abilities extend beyond the aerial game—he's also a major threat on the ground and in the return game. 

He's basically a much faster Danny Amendola, only with more overall potential and a clean injury rapsheet. 

With the loss of Amendola in free agency and a desperate need for playmakers, you can count on Rams fans rioting if the team passes on him. 

Call it a hunch, but if Tavon slips out of the top 15, there's a good chance he'll be wearing the horns on opening week. 

20 Percent: LB Alec Ogletree, Georgia

If you're familiar with the work of Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, you know he loves accurate reporting and is hardly a fan of rumors and hearsay. 

That's what makes these tweets from Thomas so intriguing:

"

We interrupt the steady stream of offensive player visits to Rams Park: Georgia LB Alec Ogletree visited earlier in the week.

— Jim Thomas (@jthom1) April 6, 2013"

"

. . . .As much as they need help on offense, Rams might not be able to pass on Ogletree if he's there at 16.

— Jim Thomas (@jthom1) April 6, 2013"

Predraft reporting is frequently loaded with team-engineered deception, so it's perfectly feasible that the Rams brain trust merely fed Thomas misinformation to throw off other teams. But for now, we can assume the Rams have a healthy interest in Alec Ogletree. 

Ogletree has character concerns, including an arrest for a DUI in February (according to ESPN), but as we saw with Janoris Jenkins, Trumaine Johnson and Chris Givens a year ago, Jeff Fisher is more than willing to overlook character defects. 

Ogletree is an elite linebacker prospect and will bring the Rams one step closer to possessing a top-10 defense. 

With James Laurinaitis and Jo-Lonn Dunbar already under contract, Ogletree would complete the trio and give St. Louis one of the top linebacking corps in the NFL. 

On the downside, 4-3 outside linebackers are rarely game-changers and are frequently removed from the field in favor of an extra defensive back, so one could argue that the Rams would not be getting maximum value. 

Contrarily, with read-option quarterbacks such as Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson in the division, St. Louis could certainly use a punishing linebacker to make those scramblers think twice before crossing the line of scrimmage. 

15 Percent: S Kenny Vaccaro, Texas

St. Louis lost starter Craig Dahl to San Francisco in free agency and cut Quintin Mikell for salary cap purposes, leaving the Rams exposed at safety. 

The 2013 class is very deep at safety, which gives the Rams the luxury of sitting back and taking a safety in the second or third round. 

Then again, with no viable starter on the roster, can the Rams afford to pass on a first-round safety, regardless of the deep crop? 

Most fans are sold on the idea of drafting offensive weapons, making Kenny Vaccaro a somewhat unpopular potential pick. But if Fisher feels Vaccaro is the top safety of the class, it's hard to argue against his judgement. 

Vaccaro is a thunderous hitter, which will immediately help in the run game and allow the Rams to contain Kaepernick and Wilson. 

If the Rams pick up Vaccaro and re-sign Mikell to a reasonable deal, there's a realistic chance that they'll be fielding the best secondary in the entire NFL. 

With a fierce defensive line and a rock-solid secondary, St. Louis will be a very difficult team to beat in 2013. 

With that in mind, it would be hard to complain about this pick, regardless of the team's offensive woes. 

10 Percent: WR Cordarrelle Patterson, Tennessee

Cordarrelle Patterson is possibly the biggest first-round risk of this draft class, but he could very well turn into the most rewarding pick. 

Patterson came out of junior college to play ball at Tennessee. His transition to the SEC was remarkable. Despite playing against the best competition in college football, the former JUCO star scored 10 touchdowns in 2013 and set the single-season school record for all-purpose yards (1,858).

Patterson was productive against top-notch competition, but he's still a project considering he only played one season of high-level college football. 

Fans are not crazy about the Rams drafting another project at wide receiver, especially since the team used a second-round pick on Brian Quick last year, but Patterson's potential may be too great to ignore. 

Patterson is not only the towering outside threat St. Louis has been craving, but he can also play slot, line up in the backfield and return kicks. 

With his speed and quickness, he's a threat every time he touches the ball, and it's certainly not easy to find a home run threat who also possesses towering size (6'2", 216 pounds). 

Having said that, unless Patterson slips to the Rams at No. 22 overall, look for the front office to explore a safer pick. 

10 Percent: RB Eddie Lacey, Alabama

The Rams lost one bruising back in Steven Jackson, so it's only fitting that they replace him with another powerful runner in the draft. 

Coincidentally, the top running back of this draft class is a juggernaut known as Eddie Lacy. There's a solid chance the Rams can grab him at No. 22 overall. 

However, the Rams still have faith in second-year backs Daryl Richardson and Isaiah Pead, so it's hard to envision a scenario in the first round where Lacy is viewed as the most valuable pick. 

It's certainly understandable if the Rams do select Lacy, as he's a viable long-term replacement for Jackson, but the Rams will most likely wait and see if they have an in-house solution before making another major investment at the position.

5 Percent: DT Sheldon Richardson, Missouri

The Rams do not have a clear need on the defensive line, but the idea of adding another monster athlete to an already dominant line may be too hard for Fisher to ignore. 

Sheldon Richardson is the most athletic defensive tackle of the class and likely has the most upside. He has some injury and character concerns, but not enough to outweigh his amazing talent. 

It's unlikely that he'll slip to No. 16, and even if he does, there are more pressing needs. 

So, while this is an unlikely pickup for the Rams, it wouldn't be overly shocking.  

5 Percent: G Chance Warmack, Alabama

If Chance Warmack slips to No. 16 overall—and guards always "unexpectedly" slip on draft day—the Rams would have to consider picking him. 

The Rams already signed Jake Long in free agency and re-signed Chris Williams, so they've already invested in the offensive line this offseason, but a prospect like Warmack will make them think twice.

Putting a talent like Warmack between Long and center Scott Wells would do wonders for the offensive line, as well as the health and productivity of Sam Bradford.

But guard is another questionable position—like outside linebacker—that requires good talent, but not necessarily great talent.

And while guards frequently slip on draft day, such as David DeCastro a year ago, it's still highly unlikely that Warmack will fall out of the top 15.

If he does slip, he's certainly the best player available. But would he be the most valuable player for the Rams?

Maybe. But a dynamic receiver or hard-hitting safety would certainly help St. Louis win more games in the short term.