Grading the 1995-2004 Drafts

Introduction   

Sportswriters love to grade each NFL team’s draft, right after the draft is over. 

Most likely, they do that because after the draft, the pro football season falls into the doldrums that last until the start of training camp.  Other writers like to wait a year or two before they assign a grade to each player drafted in the first round.

I maintain that one or two years after the draft is too early to fairly grade most NFL first-round draft picks.  Also, most of these grades are based on purely subjective measures.

One can usually distinguish an out and out bust within about three years following the draft, because the bum is already out of the league, if not actually in prison. 

But there are a large number of players who can range from just a little better than a bust to a future Hall of Famer, who cannot become distinguished until at least five seasons in the league.  Below is a discussion of grading of the first round of the ten drafts between 1995 and 2004.

This gives the youngest players a minimum of five years, since they were drafted.

Grading System

Like your high school teacher, I grade on a five point system from one to five, examples as follows:

1. Bust, Ryan Leaf—need I say more?

2. Disappointment, Ron Dayne is a guy who isn’t a total bust, but is a bit below the average for a first round pick.

3. Starter, Vonnie Holliday is a player that will start a bunch of games and do a pretty good job but nothing spectacular.

4. Pro Bowler, Warrick Dunn is a consistently good player with more than one Pro Bowl season or impressive stats but not quite worthy of Canton.

5. Future Hall of Famer, Tony Gonzalez is a consistently great player over a long period of time.

One really does need at least five years to distinguish between disappointment, starter, and pro bowler.  To pick out the future Hall of Famer, it typically requires a minimum of seven years.

The grades for each first-round draft pick were based on position-specific statistics, percentage of possible starts, and the number of Pro Bowls to which the player was voted.  The stats were compared with all other first-round picks at the same position, which allowed for a reasonably objective grading system.

Draft Grade by Year

As discussed in my earlier article, “What is the Safest Position to Draft in the First Round?,” a three signifies an average player.

The average for a draft is usually less than three, because there are nearly always more busts than future hall of famers.  The years from 1995-2004, with the highest average grade for the first round, was 1995, with an average score of three and one-tenth.  The lowest average grade was for the class of 2003, with little over two and a half.

By position, the best first round for quarterbacks was in 1995. 

Both Kerry Collins and Steve McNair developed into Pro Bowl level players.  The worst year for first-round quarterbacks was in 2002, think David Carr and Joey Harrington. 

I can’t really count 1997, because Jim Druckenmiller was the only passer selected, even if he was one of the biggest quarterback busts of all time.

The best years for running backs were 1997 and 1999, both scoring three and a half, because each drift produced a Pro Bowl player and a solid starter.  The worst running back years were 1998, Curtis Enis and John Avery, and 2002, both with an average score of two. 

It should be no surprise that the best year for wide receivers was 1996, with an average of three and eight tenths, which is the highest average for any specialist position in any year. 

It’s hard to beat a draft that included Keyshawn Johnson, Marvin Harrison, and Eric Moulds in the first round alone, not to mention TO a little later.  The worst year for wide receivers was 1997; anyone remember Rae Carruth? It had the lowest multiple player average score of any position for any year—one and three quarters.

Too few tight ends and defensive tackles have been selected in the first round to make much of a trend, but there is no such problem with offensive linemen. 

The best draft for offensive linemen, average of four, was 1997, which included Orlando Pace and Walter Jones; 1999 was the worse year, two and a third, at the position.

If your team was in the market for a defensive end in 2002, you were in luck.  With Julius Peppers and Dwight Freeney, the average grade was three and a half.  The worst year, with a score of two and a quarter, was 1999.

With five linebackers selected in the first round and only one disappointment, 2000 was the best draft for the position, three and two-thirds.  The worst multiple player draft for linebackers was 2002, with an average of two and a half.

Finally, the best draft, three an six-tenths, for defensive backs was 1999, headlined by Champ Bailey, and the worst year was 1997, with an average score a little over two and one-tenth, for six first-round draft picks.