Fantasy Baseball 2013: Top 30 Third Basemen Heading into Exhibition Play

The following countdown details my early top 30 third basemen heading into exhibition play, with an emphasis on 5x5 roto leagues.

Of the positional countdowns to date, I've had the most difficulty ranking this group from a tiers perspective.

Miguel Cabrera may be an easy lock for the top spot, but one could then make a case for the next five stars (Adrian Beltre, David Wright, Evan Longoria, Aramis Ramirez, Chase Headley) being classified in any random order.

The same holds true for the players ranked ninth through 16th. There's even some guilt in hanging Cincy's Todd Frazier out to dry at No. 17.

But hey, this is why some owners would rather move heaven and earth to draft Miggy in Round 1, compared to lamenting the risk/reward variations of a supremely talented, but equally flawed group.

Enjoy the show!

Best of the Rest: Nos. 19-30

Third Basemen—19-30

19. Manny Machado, Orioles (above)
20. Jordan Pacheco, Rockies
21. Trevor Plouffe, Twins
22. Chris Nelson, Rockies
23. Ryan Roberts, Rays
24. Chris Johnson, Braves
25. Kevin Youkilis, Yankees
26. Matt Carpenter, Cardinals
27. Matt Dominguez, Astros
28. Mike Olt, Rangers
29. Jeff Keppinger, White Sox
30. Jed Lowrie, Athletics (should garner 3B eligibility sometime around May 1)

NOTE: We'll assess Alex Rodriguez's fantasy viability in June.

18. Michael Young, Philadelphia Phillies

2012 Stats: 8 HR, 67 RBI, 79 Runs, 2 Steals, .277 BA  

Reasons To Love This Ranking

1. During the offseason, Michael Young moved from one hitter-friendly ballpark in Texas to another hitter-friendly park in Philly.

2. In odd-numbered years since 2005, Young has cumulatively enjoyed a .332 batting average.

3. Even at age 36, Young is still a viable threat for 85 runs, 80 RBI and 190-plus hits. 

Reasons To Loathe This Ranking

1. Now for the bad news: Young's numbers, across the board, significantly plunged last season.

2. There's no guarantee that he will notch 12 homers or bat .300 again.

17. Todd Frazier, Cincinnati Reds

2012 Stats: 19 HR, 67 RBI, 55 Runs, 3 Steals, .273 BA 

Reasons To Love This Ranking

1. Last year, Todd Frazier's first-half/second-half splits with homers, steals, doubles, walks, strikeouts and total bases were virtually identical.

2. Frazier's seasonal batting average (.273) was deceptively low—he posted three batting months of .306, .330 and .385.

3. For July and August, he crushed opposing pitching, racking up 11 homers, 40 RBI, 34 runs and .323 batting average.

4. Heading into his second full MLB season, Frazier has the reasonable upside for 25 homers.  

Reasons To Loathe This Ranking

1. Here's the flip side of Frazier's splits: In September/October, he had deplorable marks with batting average (.176) and on-base percentage (.235).

2. For what it's worth, he never belted 20 homers in the minors.

16. Pedro Alvarez, Pittsburgh Pirates

2012 Stats: 30 HR, 85 RBI, 64 Runs, 1 Steal, .244 BA 

Reasons To Love This Ranking

1. Given his tremendous raw power, Pedro Alvarez has the reasonable upside for 33 homers and 90 RBI this season.

2. Over a 162-game season, Alvarez is a lock for three stupendous spurts—from a homer/RBI perspective. So, when he gets hot, ride him until that flame extinguishes.

3. From a splits perspective, he notched four months of double-digit runs, three months of five or more homers and five months of double-digit RBI.

4. Alvarez is typically a major liability with average, but he did hit .322 (with five homers/12 RBI) last August (90 at-bats).  

Reasons To Loathe This Ranking

Alvarez is a two-category asset. He makes his fantasy living on the long ball.

15. Kyle Seager, Seattle Mariners

2012 Stats: 20 HR, 86 RBI, 62 Runs, 13 Steals, .259 BA 

Reasons To Love This Ranking

1. In his rookie season, Kyle Seager posted excellent beginner marks with homers (20), RBI (86) and doubles (35).

2. From a splits standpoint, Seager had two months of double-digit runs, four months of double-digit RBI and four months of four-plus homers.

3. He is an outside candidate for 20 homers and 20 steals in 2013.  

Reasons To Loathe This Ranking

1. How's this for weird: Seager didn't bat above .300 in any month last year.

2. He had three slugging months under .400. Ugh.

14. Will Middlebrooks, Boston Red Sox

2012 Stats: 15 HR, 54 RBI, 34 Runs, 4 Steals, .288 BA 

Reasons To Love This Ranking

1. In his debut month last year (24 games in May), Will Middlebrooks notched six homers, 21 RBI, 13 runs, two steals and had a .316 batting average.

2. Including his time in the minors last season, Middlebrooks accounted for 24 homers and 81 RBI.

3. He had slugging marks above .500 for May and June. 

Reasons To Loathe This Ranking

1. It's OK to be weary of the dreaded "sophomore slump," particularly since Middlebrooks batted .194 in 10 August games.

2. From May to August, his numbers in eight categories—runs, hits, doubles, homers, RBI, batting average, OBP and slugging—successively declined each month.

13. Mike Moustakas, Kansas City Royals

2012 Stats: 20 HR, 73 RBI, 69 Runs, 5 Steals, .242 BA 

Reasons To Love This Ranking

1. Heading into his age-24 campaign, Mike Moustakas is seemingly on the precipice of a major breakout.

2. He's only three seasons removed from one of the greatest minor league campaigns of the last 15 years: 36 homers, 124 RBI, 94 runs and a .322 average in only 118 games.

3. Moustakas got off to a torrid start last April, rolling for three homers, 12 RBI, 10 runs and a .315 batting average.

4. The Royals slugger posted double-digit tallies in runs and RBI for all six months last year.

Reasons To Loathe This Ranking

Moustakas had four months of .247 or lower (batting average) last year. Not good.

12. David Freese, St. Louis Cardinals

2012 Stats: 20 HR, 86 RBI, 62 Runs, 3 Steals, .259 BA 

Reasons To Love This Ranking

1. Last year, David Freese established career highs in runs, hits, doubles, homers, RBI and steals.

2. Over four MLB seasons (one full, three partial), Freese has batted .293 or higher every time.

3. During that span (328 MLB games), Freese has a stellar OBP of .363.  

Reasons To Loathe This Ranking

Heading into his age-30 campaign, it's fair to wonder if Freese has the upside for 27 homers and/or 100 RBI. (Nit-picky concern.)

11. Brett Lawrie, Toronto Blue Jays

2012 Stats: 11 HR, 48 RBI, 73 Runs, 13 Steals, .273 BA (125 games) 

Reasons To Love This Ranking

1. This lofty ranking is a compromise pick on Brett Lawrie's behalf. From a numbers standpoint, he probably warrants a preseason rating around 14th or 15th.

2. When healthy, Lawrie is a good bet for 20 homers and 20 steals.

3. Similar to Mike Moustakas, Lawrie (18 HR, .347 batting in the minors two years ago) has a world of talent and should bust out sooner than later. 

Reasons To Loathe This Ranking

1. Lawrie didn't live up to the hype (or high ranking) that followed him into last season.

2. The Blue Jays slugger only had one batting month above .300 last year (June). Ouch.

10. Martin Prado, Arizona Diamondbacks

2012 Stats: 10 HR, 70 RBI, 81 Runs, 17 Steals, .301 BA 

Reasons To Love This Ranking

1. With the Braves last year, Martin Prado enjoyed career highs with hits (186), doubles (42), triples (six), RBI and steals.

2. Prado has notched double-digit homers in each of the last four seasons (2009-12).

3. From a splits perspective, he posted two months of batting .320 or higher, four months of double-digit RBI and six months of double-digit runs.

4. With his move to Arizona (via the Justin Upton trade), Prado will take his talents to one of the National League's friendliest hitter parks.

5. Prado has dual-position eligibility (3B/OF) this year.  

Reasons To Loathe This Ranking

No complaints here. Prado is a non-sexy, but highly productive pick anytime after Round 9.

9. Pablo Sandoval, San Francisco Giants

2012 Stats: 12 HR, 63 RBI, 59 Runs, .283 BA (108 games) 

Reasons To Love This Ranking

1. If memory serves, Pablo Sandoval moon-raked three homers in Game 1 of last year's World Series.

2. Check out his stellar numbers from last April: four homers, 14 RBI, 15 runs and .311 batting.

3. Over a full season, Sandoval has the track-record capacity for 25 homers, 90 RBI and .330 batting average. 

Reasons To Loathe This Ranking

1. Sandoval hasn't played 120 or more games since 2010.

2. Kung Fu Panda's weight and durability remain annual concerns.

8. Hanley Ramirez, Los Angeles Dodgers

2012 Stats: 24 HR, 92 RBI, 79 Runs, 21 Steals, .257 BA  

Reasons To Love This Ranking

1. Hanley Ramirez fared better in 64 games with the Dodgers (10 HR, 44 RBI, .271 BA) last year, compared to the 93 games with the Marlins (.248 batting).

2. Of the last six seasons, Ramirez topped the 20-homer mark five times.

3. Downward trends aside, he's still a good candidate for 20 homers/20 steals at age 29.

4. Ramirez has dual-position eligibility (SS/3B) for one more season.  

Reasons To Loathe This Ranking

1. Han-Ram hasn't sniffed a .500 slugging rate in the last four seasons—a status he attained with the Marlins from 2007-09.

2. The days of Ramirez cruising past 100 runs sometime in early September are seemingly long gone.

3. It's hard to justify Ramirez's 132 strikeouts last year—a career high (or low).

7. Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals

2012 Stats: 25 HR, 95 RBI, 93 Runs, 5 Steals, .282 BA 

Reasons To Love This Ranking

1. Heading into his age-28 season, Ryan Zimmerman has evolved into an annual lock for 27 homers, 90 RBI, 89 runs, four steals and a .290 batting average.

2. From a splits perspective, Zimmerman posted two months of batting .315 or higher, five months of double-digit runs and five months of double-digit RBI.

3. Check out Zim's amazing numbers from last July: 10 homers, 24 RBI, 26 runs, .366 batting, .434 OBP and 1.186 OPS.  

Reasons To Loathe This Ranking

No complaints here.

6. Chase Headley, San Diego Padres

2012 Stats: 31 HR, 115 RBI, 95 Runs, 17 Steals, .286 BA 

Reasons To Love This Ranking

1. Last year, Chase Headley easily established career highs in homers, RBI, runs, hits, slugging (.498) and OPS (.875).

2. He also matched seasonal highs in doubles and steals.

3. For the final two months, Headley exploded for 19 homers, 63 RBI, 44 runs, five steals and .319 batting average.

4. For August and September, he also produced back-to-back months of .600-plus slugging.  

Reasons To Loathe This Ranking

If Headley replicates his 2012 production, obviously this ranking will look foolish by season's end. In the meantime, I need to see greatness in consecutive years.

5. Aramis Ramirez, Milwaukee Brewers

2012 Stats: 27 HR, 105 RBI, 92 Runs, 9 Steals, .300 BA 

Reasons To Love This Ranking

1. If Aramis Ramirez wasn't four months shy of his 35th birthday, he'd be higher on the fantasy "respect" meter this spring.

2. Last year, Ramirez established a new career high in doubles (50).

3. Of the last 12 seasons, A-Ram has cracked 26 or more homers nine times and 100-plus RBI seven times.

4. For the final three months, he cumulatively tallied 18 homers, 60 RBI, 48 runs, seven steals and a .338 batting average.  

Reasons To Loathe This Ranking

Ramirez had a notable discrepancy in batting average last year: .320 at home and .281 on the road.

4. Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays

2012 Stats: 17 HR, 55 RBI, 39 Runs, .289 BA (74 games) 

Reasons To Love This Ranking

1. Extrapolating Evan Longoria's 2012 numbers over 150 games, he could have finished with 34 homers, 108 RBI, 78 runs and five steals.

2. From 2008-11, Longo averaged 28 homers and 100 RBI.

3. Last year, Longoria's numbers at third base (10 HR, 36 RBI, .304 batting, .391 OBP) were significantly higher than his DH numbers (seven homers, .261 batting).

4. Check out his post-injury splits from September: eight homers, 21 RBI, 16 runs, .296 batting, .379 OBP and .574 slugging.  

Reasons To Loathe This Ranking

1. Longoria hasn't played in 145 games (per season) since 2010.

2. The days of Longoria amassing 45 or more doubles have likely passed.

3. A-Ramirez and Headley probably deserve a higher ranking based on last year's numbers...but Longoria gets the slight, reputation-based nod.

3. David Wright, New York Mets

2012 Stats: 21 HR, 93 RBI, 91 Runs, 15 Steals, .306 BA 

Reasons To Love This Ranking

1. David Wright had absurd numbers in the first three months last year: 

April: 3 HR, 14 RBI, 15 runs, .389 BA, .494 OBP, 1.064 OPS 

May: 2 HR, 16 RBI, 17 runs, .347 BA, .439 OBP, 1.000 OPS 

June: 4 HR, 20 RBI, 20 runs, .340 BA, .426 OBP, .989 OPS

2. Overall, he posted four months of three-plus steals, five months of double-digit RBI, five months of a .360 or higher OBP and six months of double-digit runs.

3. With Citi Field's smaller dimensions in 2013, Wright morphs into a good bet for 27 homers, 35 doubles, 100 RBI and 93 runs.  

Reasons To Loathe This Ranking

1. Wright didn't exceed .300 batting for the final three months last year.

2. The face of the Mets hasn't registered 100 runs in the previous four seasons (2009-12).

2. Adrian Beltre, Texas Rangers

2012 Stats: 36 HR, 102 RBI, 95 Runs, .321 BA 

Reasons To Love This Ranking

1. Since 2004, Adrian Beltre has enjoyed three seasons of 189 or more hits (2004, 2010, 2012).

2. Of the last three campaigns, he has averaged 32 homers, 103 RBI and .314 batting.

3. In that span, Beltre has also evolved into a comfortable lock for 37 doubles, 86 runs and an OPS rate above .900.

4. From a splits standpoint, Beltre posted five months of .300 batting/double-digit RBI and six months of four-plus homers/double-digit runs.  

Reasons To Loathe This Ranking

1. Even with his annual greatness in homers, RBI, runs and batting, Beltre is still just a four-category asset.

2. Beltre turns 34 on April 7.

1. Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers

2012 Stats: 44 HR, 139 RBI, 109 Runs, 4 Steals, .330 BA 

Reasons To Love This Ranking

1. Miguel Cabrera is the reigning American League MVP and the Junior Circuit's first Triple Crown winner since 1967 (Carl Yastrzemski).

2. He has notched 30 homers in each of the last six seasons, averaging 36 in that span.

3. Last year, Miggy established career highs in hits (205), homers and RBI.

4. Cabrera has absurdly posted an OPS rate of .999 or above in each of the last three seasons.  

Reasons To Loathe This Ranking

No complaints here...except that Miggy no longer has first-base eligibility. As a result, Mike Trout may be the more attractive candidate at No. 1 overall.