Through The NFL Mocking Glass: A Fantasy-Focused Mock Draft

Man, I love the NFL Draft.  It’s an oasis of football in a desert of spring baseball, the endless NBA season, and whatever hockey is up to. Nothing beats putting your life on hold for an entire weekend to drink heavily and watch five second clips of college kids destroying inferior opponents from Cupcake State.

The Draft is also the first day of the 2009 fantasy football season, so it’s only fitting that the fantasy consequences of each mock pick are examined. Only one month left until I can start mock-drafting for fantasy… I can hardly contain myself...

1. Detroit, Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia

Comparable to: Carson Palmer, Cincinnati

The concerns about Stafford seem to be dying down, and the Lions are comfortable with the choice. He's got a big arm and enough experience that the Lions should start him from day one.

RB Kevin Smith turned a corner in the second half of the season, and rushed for an average of 83.8 yards with little help from the passing game. Stafford can loosen things up for Smith, increasing his value into a solid fantasy RB2.

As for WR Calvin Johnson, he becomes even more valuable with a stable QB situation. It will probably be a month or so into the season before Stafford shows his true fantasy value.

2. St. Louis, Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia

Comparable to: Walter Jones, Seattle

Monroe is the guy that kept the Chiefs’ 2008 first-rounder, Branden Albert, stuck at guard when they played together, so he's a special talent. He steps in and fills the hole left by the departure of Orlando Pace.

Unfortunately, the rest of the Rams' line, including human turnstile and penalty magnet RT Alex Barron is still there. With the Rams implementing a power rushing attack to accommodate Steven Jackson’s skills, upgrading the offensive line is a priority.

Monroe's arrival could help Jackson stay on the field more, the only thing keeping him from being an elite fantasy RB.

3. Kansas City, Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest

Comparable to: Keith Bulluck, Tennessee

The Chiefs’ defense finished 30th versus the rush, 28th against the pass, and set an NFL record for fewest sacks in a season (10). They need to take the best defensive player on the board, regardless of position.

Curry is the most talented defensive prospect in the draft and fills one of the Chiefs’ many needs on that side of the ball. He's not enough to make you draft the Chiefs' defense, but Curry projects as a very active player in individual defender leagues. Who else on K.C.’s defense is going to make a tackle?

4. Seattle, Jason Smith, OT, Baylor

Comparable to: Joe Thomas, Cleveland

A former tight end, Smith should step in at right tackle and be a solid fixture there while also being the eventual replacement for LT Walter Jones. Seattle is switching to a zone-blocking scheme, which plays perfectly to Smith's athleticism.

His presence should also help shore up the rushing game, which was merely average. Don't go wild and expect RB Julius Jones to suddenly be a front-line fantasy option, but he should be better.

Smith should also help keep QB Matt Hasselbeck healthy, which helps the revamped passing game and WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh.

5. Cleveland, Brian Orakpo, DE, Texas

Comparable to: DeMarcus Ware, Dallas

Cleveland allowed opponents to rush for 4.5 yards a pop and notched only 17 sacks last season. Orakpo, who projects as the kind of hybrid DE/OLB that coach Eric Mangini dreams about more than donuts, had almost that many sacks in his senior year (11.5).

There's not much talent on the Cleveland defense, so forget them. If Orakpo flashes those same skills in the preseason, maybe take a late IDP flier on him.

6. Cincinnati, Andre Smith, OT, Alabama

Comparable to: Bryant McKinnie, Minnesota

It's hard to tell which side of the ball needs more attention in Cincinnati. The offense averaged 12.8 points, and the defense had only had 17 sacks. Either way, count on the fact that the Bengals will draft the most athletically gifted, injury-plagued, and morally bankrupt player available (Odell Thurman, Chris Henry, etc.).

It just so happens that the Bengals' screaming need at LT coincides with the self-immolation of Smith. Honestly, he may be a knucklehead, but he's a very good player, man-boobs and all.

If Smith can stabilize the left tackle position, QB Carson Palmer has the skills to be a top 10 fantasy QB. Don't get me wrong, though. It would be a mistake to invest anything more than a seventh-round pick on either Chad Johnson or Laveranues Coles.

7. Oakland, Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech

Comparable to: Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona

Easiest call in the draft. Al Davis loves fast players, and Crabtree is the top offensive player on many draftniks' boards. Oakland had the worst passing offense in the league, partially because QB JaMarcus Russell has no one to target beyond TE Zach Miller.

Crabtree, who has embarrassed every CB he's played against, will walk in the door and be the team's best receiver. All three of Oakland's division opponents finished in the bottom third in pass defense, so Crabtree has a better shot than most to break through in his rookie year.

But Russell will still stink, in case you were wondering.

8. Jacksonville, Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri

Comparable to: Torry Holt, FA

Even though they’ve taken WRs in the first round in the past few years, (Matt Jones, Reggie Williams), this position still represents the team’s biggest need. Last year’s lead WR, Jones, has taken a permanent vacation to do community service.

Williams was let go, and Dennis Northcutt is about 90 years old. Maclin would bring the Jags the deep speed they’ve lacked seemingly forever. QB David Garrard has a big arm, so he and Maclin might develop a nice rapport later in the season. Consider him an interesting fantasy possibility at this point.

9. Green Bay, Aaron Maybin, DE, Penn State

Comparable to: Terrell Suggs, Baltimore

The Packers are making the switch to a 3-4 defense and need to bring in some scheme-appropriate personnel. The line will certainly miss DE Aaron Kampman, who is being moved to OLB. He accounted for nearly half of Green Bay’s 27 sacks last year. 

Maybin needs to bulk up a bit, but he’s quick out of the blocks and can play either DE or OLB. If the Packers can bring more heat on the pass rush, the confusion brought by a new scheme could push them back into the ranks of roster-able fantasy defenses.

Maybin will have to get used to the new weight he’ll have to put on, so don’t expect an early impact beyond a few sacks here and there.

10. San Francisco, Mark Sanchez, QB, USC

Comparable to: Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay

They danced with Kurt Warner, pulled Stafford’s ponytails, and clearly view Shaun Hill as nothing more than a late-night booty call. So what will the Niners do at QB? Draft the best signal-caller on the board.

It might not be an immediate need, but Mike Singletary will be given plenty of leash in his first year as a head coach. Coming out as a junior and one-year starter, Sanchez will have to sit for most, if not all of 2009. If the Niners decide to go with him as the starter, RB Frank Gore's value takes a huge hit.

11. Buffalo, Everette Brown, DE, Florida

Comparable to: Terrell Suggs, Baltimore

It’s hybrid-mania here in the early part of our mock draft, with a third player that can line up at both DE and OLB coming off the board. Brown is a pure pass rusher who “fits the Bill” at both positions, and could team up with DE Aaron Schobel to give Buffalo a wicked pass rush.

His lack of size won’t help with the Bills' problems on rush defense, so don’t worry about them. Just grab Brown and Schobel for sacks in IDP leagues.

12. Denver, B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College

Comparable to: Pat Williams, Minnesota

Raji allegedly failed a drug test at the NFL Combine, costing himself millions of dollars with a fallout from the top five of the draft. But Raji's loss is Denver's gain.

The Broncos defense has questions at nearly every position, and DT is as good a place as any to start. There’s no short-term fantasy value with this pick, though; still too many needs for this defense.

13. Washington, Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU

Comparable to: Justin Tuck, NY Giants

The Redskins are hopeful that one of the elite OTs falls to them, but that’s not gonna happen. Jackson would address the Redskins’ multiple needs on the defensive line. He can play both DT and DE, and can step in on day one and be good enough to help with the pass rush and run-stuffing.

Jackson’s individual fantasy value isn’t that great, but when combined with DT Albert Haynesworth, his versatility will help make the Redskins a top five fantasy defense.

14. New Orleans, Brian Cushing, LB, USC

Comparable to: Karlos Dansby, Arizona

The Saints have been defined in recent years by their woeful secondary, but filled their needs there in free agency. Now they can turn to other areas of need, particularly OLB, where they’ve been hanging by a thread for years.

Cushing projects as a solid Sam linebacker who can help out the safeties in coverage. He should be a decent contributor right away, but only a crazy person would take New Orleans as a fantasy defense, even with their new acquisitions.

The Saints are without second and third round picks, so they’re a prime candidate to trade down.

15. Houston, Peria Jerry, DT, Ole Miss

Comparable to: Vonnie Holliday, FA

The Texans love them some D-linemen in the first round, and this year is no exception. They need a guy who can not only help shore up their 23rd-ranked rush defense, but also bring the pressure on passing downs to free up DE Mario Williams.

Jerry has a good burst off the line and a bundle of fancy moves to help the Texans bolster their anemic sack numbers. He should see plenty of playing time in the DT rotation, and help LB DeMeco Ryans stay healthy and productive for you IDP leaguers.

16. San Diego, Michael Oher, OT, Ole Miss

Comparable to: Marcus McNeill, San Diego

The Chargers need some more big boys up front to help the push for one RB who’s too small (Darren Sproles), and another who’s too beat up (LaDainian Tomlinson). Oher might not have the footwork or focus to be a LT, but he’ll be just fine on the right side, mauling people and grinding their bones for his bread.

This would also allow the versatile Jeromey Clary to move inside to guard. The Chargers could use the boost Oher would provide to up their rushing rank from 20th. For fantasy players, the time-share between Sproles and L.T. is the bigger question.

17. NY Jets, Josh Freeman, QB, Kansas

Comparable to: JaMarcus Russell, Oakland

Another year, another dopey pick by the Jets. Everyone and his grandma knows that the Jets are dying for a QB, and they'll reach for the poor man's Russell (ouch!) when comparable talent is available later.

New York is a brutal place to play for a QB, particularly a rookie, so Freeman had better hope that coach Rex Ryan "redshirts" him. Absolutely zero fantasy value.

18. Denver, Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State

Comparable to: Terence Newman, Dallas

Will Jenkins and S Brian Dawkins help? Sure. Will it be enough for fantasy players to take notice? Not without a pass rush (Denver finished 26th in sacks). Maybe after Denver has burned through all the picks acquired in the Jay Cutler trade they might turn the defense around, but not before then. Minimal fantasy impact.

19.  Tampa Bay, Robert Ayers, DE, Tennessee

Comparable to: Adalius Thomas, New England

If the Jets don't make that mistake with Freeman, I guarantee you the Bucs will. With all apologies to my Sports Smack broadcast partner, Ben Ice, Tampa Bay QB Luke McCown is a barking dog. Barring a move at QB, they will need to address the defensive side of the ball, which they basically gutted in the off-season.

The defensive line is where it's worst, so they will take the best lineman on the board at this point. Ayers is a bit like Tyson Jackson in that he's solid in all aspects of his game, but not outstanding in any one. That mitigates any fantasy impact, especially since the Bucs are remodeling their defense.

20. Detroit, Clay Matthews, LB, USC

Comparable to: Mathias Kiwanuka, NY Giants

Here we go again. Throw a dart and you'll hit a position of need on Detroit's roster. They'd like to see Jerry fall to them, because the need at DT is particularly great.  Unfortunately, Tampa Bay has similar defensive needs and picks one spot before.

The best defensive player on the board here is Matthews, who can line up at OLB or DE. Teaming Matthews up with Ernie Sims and Julian Peterson should help the Lions improve a rushing defense that allowed an average of 172.1 yards. Not enough for fantasy players to take notice, though.

21. Philadelphia, Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia

Comparable to: Marshawn Lynch, Buffalo

There have been many tries by Philadelphia to get a backup/heir-apparent to RB Brian Westbrook with little success. Considering his high upside and Westbrook’s injury history, Moreno will see plenty of action, making him worth a mid-round fantasy pick.  

22. Minnesota, Eben Britton, OT, Arizona

Comparable to: Marc Columbo, Dallas

The Vikings have been burned taking WRs early in the draft recently (Troy Williamson, Sidney Rice), so don’t expect them to get fooled again.

The bigger hole is at RT, considering the terrible year that Ryan Cook had at that position. Britton is a smart pass blocker, which the Vikings could use now that they’ve got “their guy,” Sage Rosenfels, at QB.

Britton’s presence certainly couldn’t hurt Minnesota’s Top five rushing attack, and he could help them improve their pass protection, where they finished in the bottom 10 in sacks allowed.

If Rosenfels shines like he did intermittently in Houston, an improved O-line could spell a real fantasy spike for Vikings offensive players.

23. New England, Rey Maualuga, LB, USC

Comparable to: Ray Lewis, Baltimore

One could argue that the need at CB is greater, considering that the Patriots gave up the second-most passing TDs, but Maualuga is too good to pass up here. Team him up with Defensive Rookie of the Year Jerrod Mayo, and the Patriots' front seven will be unbreakable.

If they can grab a decent CB somewhere in the draft, New England could be a decent fantasy defense once again.

24. Atlanta, Evander “Ziggy” Hood, DT, Missouri

Comparable to: Aaron Smith, Pittsburgh

The Falcons need to shore up a 25th-ranked rush defense that gave up nearly five yards per attempt. More talent on the D-line could also help former first-rounder Jamaal Anderson fulfill his potential.

At minimum, they need help somewhere in the front seven to compensate for the loss of “Mr. Falcon,” LB Keith Brooking. Minimal fantasy value as an IDP or impact for his team.

25. Miami, Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois

Comparable to: DeAngelo Hall, Washington

Miami’s pass defense was among the league’s worst, with the secondary giving up 49 receptions in excess of 20 yards. Davis has all the physical skills to be a top cover corner, but his technique is sloppy and attitude questionable.

Maybe he just hasn’t had the proper motivation, in the form of a foot applied to his rear end. Enter Bill Parcells. Davis might win a starting job by default, and that does not bode well for Miami as a fantasy defense.  

 

26. Baltimore, Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland

Comparable to: Chad Johnson, Cincinnati

The Ravens cannot continue to pretend they have a passing game. Only two teams had fewer attempts per game. It’s a tossup here between Heyward-Bey and North Carolina’s Hakeem Nicks, but the edge goes to the hometown kid whose game is more about deep speed, which the Ravens lack.

He’ll likely be more of a third WR early in his career, so don’t buy into his fantasy value until you see him perform consistently.

27. Indianapolis, James Laurinaitis, LB, Ohio State

Comparable to: Lofa Tatupu, Seattle

The Colts are continually looking to upgrade their defense through the draft, and there are always holes for them to fill. The biggest one is at DT, but that might be a reach at this point. Laurinaitis is talented in all aspects of his game, and his position as MLB in a cover-2 defense could make him valuable in IDP leagues.

28. Philadelphia, Jamon Meredith, OT, South Carolina

Comparable to: Joe Staley, San Francisco

It’s probably a bit too much to expect the Eagles to exercise both of their first round draft choices. Heck, they don’t even like paying one first-rounder. Nevertheless, the tackle positions are empty, so they need to do something.

Meredith is slightly small for a tackle, but the Eagles run a pass-heavy scheme, which plays to Meredith’s strengths. Not much impact for the Eagles fantasy prospects.  

29. NY Giants, Hakeem Nicks, WR, North Carolina

Comparable to: Anquan Boldin, Arizona

Plaxico Burress is gone, and no other Giants WR seems ready for Broadway. Without Burress, the passing attack was merely average, doing just enough to keep the heat off the rushing game.

If Nicks can win a starting job, which seems likely given the competition, he should be an immediate fantasy contributor and worth an early-season pickup. Keep an eye on him in training camp.

30. Tennessee, Kenny Britt, WR, Rutgers

Comparable to: Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City

Tennessee ranked near the bottom in almost every significant passing category. While a lot of that is by design, they’ll need to open things up a bit to keep the running lanes clear.

Britt has the prototype size (and sketchy attitude) of the modern NFL WR, which should make him a solid target for QB Kerry Collins. Collins is what he is, though, so don’t expect a lot from Britt in year one.

31. Arizona, Chris “Beanie” Wells, RB, Ohio St.

Comparable to: Larry Johnson, Kansas City

The current RB depth chart is a mess, with Edgerrin James wanting out and Tim Hightower being a situational running back. The Cardinals need a big body to bolster a rushing attack that ranked dead last.

At 235lbs-plus, Beanie can handle business between the tackles. It doesn't matter much that he can't catch, because QB Kurt Warner only completed 20 percent of his passes to the RBs. Beanie will make an immediate fantasy impact. He’ll be a very good RB2, so nab him in the third or fourth round of your draft.

32. Pittsburgh, Alphonso Smith, CB, Wake Forest

Comparable to: Antoine Winfield, Minnesota

The Steelers might like an O-lineman, but taking one at this point would be a stretch, value-wise. Smith is the best man on the board here. He is excellent in man coverage and can help in the return game. Smith slowly can be worked into an aging, though still productive, defensive backfield.

Mike Gilbert is a staff writer at RotoExperts.com and co-host of “Sports Smack” on Blog Talk Radio every Friday from 7-8 p.m. ET.  You can reach Mike at [e-mail] or follow on Twitter: @Rotoboom.