Drafting a Quarterback in the First Round Worth the Risk?

Introduction

As the NFL Draft approaches, the debate is heating up over whether the Lions should pick one of the two top quarterback prospects—Matthew Stafford or Mark Sanchez—or select a position that appears safer.

Everyone agrees that quarterback is the pivotal position on a team. Get the right one, and you can print your team’s playoff tickets annually. But picking the wrong one, especially early in the first round, can set a team back for years.

Because of the risks involved in selecting a quarterback in the first round, there are some who say that a team shouldn’t take a quarterback in the first round at all. The history of the NFL is full of guys who were selected in later rounds or not taken at all and are in the Hall of Fame, or have taken their teams to the Super Bowl.

But for every one of those late round selections who made it to the top, there are a dozen who languished in obscurity for a couple of years before drifting out of the league.

Perhaps the team that selected them didn’t suffer too much financially, but neither did the team that went for the late round project that never panned out make any progress. Perhaps that fortune-changing quarterback was waiting for them in the first round, but the team was unwilling to take the risk.

This article is an assessment of top quarterbacks selected in the first round, compared to those selected in later rounds or undrafted. The conclusions are based on an examination of every draft between 1970 and 2006 and the careers of the best quarterbacks who emerged from these drafts. Best quarterbacks are defined here as Pro Bowlers and Super Bowl winners.

Career Statistics

As the first part of the assessment, the career statistics of all top quarterbacks from the 1970 through 2006 drafts were compiled. On average, a first round quarterback played in 136 games, passed for 27,094 yards, threw 165 touchdown passes and 134 interceptions, and had a passer rating of 78.90.

Quarterbacks selected in later rounds averaged 132 games played, 24,310 passing yards, 153 touchdown passes, 113 interceptions, and a 80.65 passer rating.

Based on these results, there is little difference between the careers of a top quarterback selected in the first round and one selected later.

First rounders had slightly longer careers in terms of games played, and slightly higher production in passing yards and touchdown passes, because a first round pick is more likely to play early in his career than a later pick. For the same reason, first round picks have more interceptions and a slightly lower passer rating than later picks.

Less experienced quarterbacks are more likely to throw interceptions, and thus have lower passer ratings than guys who have had a little more time to learn from the sidelines.

Draft Analysis

Between 1970 and 2006, 577 quarterbacks have been drafted by NFL teams. Of those 577, 78, or 13.5 percent, were drafted in the first round. More quarterbacks have been drafted in the first round than any other round in the draft. Of those first round picks, 31, or 40 percent, have played in the Pro Bowl at least once in their careers.

Generally, the later a quarterback is selected in the draft, the less likely he is to reach the Pro Bowl. Second and third round selections have reached the Pro Bowl 20 percent of the time, and after that the rate drops precipitously to 10 percent or less.

A total of 77 quarterbacks who entered the league between 1970 and 2006 have played in the Pro Bowl, of which the 31 first round picks comprise 40 percent.

Under one half of quarterbacks who have played in the Pro Bowl were first round draft picks, but the proportion of Super Bowl winners is even more in favor of first rounders.

Twenty quarterbacks who entered the league between 1970 and 2006 have started for teams that won the Super Bowl, and of those 20, 11 were drafted in the first round. Of all quarterbacks drafted in the first round, 14 percent have started on the team that won the Super Bowl.

For quarterbacks drafted later or not at all, the rate is less than two percent.

Finally, the ultimate test of greatness is an election into the Hall of Fame. To date, nine quarterbacks who entered the league in 1970 or later have been enshrined in Canton, and three active quarterbacks (as of the 2008 season) can be considered locks for election after they retire, bringing the total to 12 current or future Hall of Fame quarterbacks who entered the league since 1970.

Of those 12, six were first round draft picks. Of the remainder, three were taken in the second or third round, and the rest were undrafted or drafted late.

Conclusions

Based on the analysis described above, quarterbacks taken in the first round are much more likely to reward those who select them than bargain players picked up later in the draft or in free agency.

There is a reason why these players were chosen early in the draft, and those teams that balk at taking the risk of drafting a bust are likely to find themselves no better in the years to come.