Predicting All 30 Teams' Home Run Leader for the 2013 Season

There's no more exciting play in baseball than the home run.

Unfortunately, the greatest sound we hear at a ballgame—that incredible crack that resonates throughout the park when the ball and bat meet in a tremendous explosion of power that hurls the tightly wound projectile toward the outfield wall like a missile—is also the most polarizing play in the game.

With performance-enhancing drugs once again at the forefront as MLB heads into spring training, it's fair to wonder whether that 425-foot blast was all natural or the result of an injection, a pill or a tube of cream.

Regardless of the truth, home runs will continue to be hit as teams jockey for position in their respective leagues and divisions.

Who will lead your favorite team in long balls this season?

Let's take a look.

Baltimore Orioles: Adam Jones

Four years of patience paid off for the Orioles, as Adam Jones broke out in a big way last season. The 27-year-old center fielder is poised to put up even bigger numbers in 2013.

Entering the prime of his career, Jones actually hit more home runs on the road (17) than in the confines of Oriole Park at Camden Yards, home to the fifth-highest home run rate in the game.

Jones has gone yard three times against seven different pitchers over the course of his career—four of them reside in the AL East: New York's CC Sabathia, Tampa Bay's Jeremy Hellickson and Toronto's Brandon Morrow and Casey Janssen.

That little fact will only help Jones to sustain his power over the course of a full season, one that will find him pushing the 40-home run mark but falling just short.

Projected 2013 Home Run Total: 38

2012 Home Runs: 32

Career Home Runs: 107

Rank Among Active Players: 121

Rank All Time: 718

Boston Red Sox: David Ortiz

David Ortiz was rounding the bases on a three-run home run by former Red Sox first baseman Adrian Gonzalez when he suffered an injury to his Achilles that kept him out of action for all but one game after July 17.

Yet Boston's designated hitter had already hit 23 round-trippers over his first 90 games of the season, well on his way to what would have been the seventh season of his 16-year career with at least 30 home runs.

He's not yet fully recovered, but Ortiz insists that he'll be ready to go by Opening Day when the Red Sox take on the New York Yankees, one of Big Papi's favorite teams to play.

Only the Toronto Blue Jays (46) and Tampa Bay Rays (41) have seen Ortiz crush the ball over the outfield fence more often than the Yankees, whom Ortiz has victimized 37 times.

Projected 2013 Home Run Total: 35

2012 Home Runs: 23

Career Home Runs: 401

Rank Among Active Players: 10

Rank All Time: 50

New York Yankees: Curtis Granderson

With 84 home runs since the beginning of the 2011 season, no player in baseball has hit as many round-trippers as Curtis Granderson, giving the Yankees center fielder a 10-dinger lead over Detroit's Miguel Cabrera and Milwaukee's Ryan Braun, who have 74 each.

Despite that fact, Granderson, 31, has yet to win a home run title.

Coming off a 2012 season where he set a new career high with 43 home runs, Granderson's left-handed swing, tailor-made for Yankee Stadium and its short porch in right field, will finally win that title in 2013 as he prepares to head into the free-agent market following the season.

Projected 2013 Home Run Total: 45

2012 Home Runs: 43

Career Home Runs: 210

Rank Among Active Players: 38

Rank All Time: 275

Tampa Bay Rays: Evan Longoria

Despite missing half of the 2012 season with a hamstring injury, Tampa Bay third baseman Evan Longoria still managed to smack 17 home runs in only 74 games.

It's that natural power, coupled with the fact that Longoria, 27, is heading into the prime years of his career, that makes him the pick to lead Tampa Bay in bombs in 2013.

Of course, for that to happen, Longoria must stay on the field, which is something he's struggled to do in each of the past two years. In addition to last year's lost season, April 2011 saw him miss all but two games due to an oblique injury.

Should Longoria wind up with another lengthy stint on the disabled list, left fielder Matt Joyce has a chance to grab the top spot in Tampa Bay.

Projected 2013 Home Run Total: 33

2012 Home Runs: 17

Career Home Runs: 130

Rank Among Active Players: 98

Rank All Time: 558

Toronto Blue Jays: Jose Bautista

Since 2010, no player in baseball has hit as many home runs as Toronto's Jose Bautista, whose 124 dingers place him a dozen ahead of Detroit's Miguel Cabrera, his closest competition.

The fact that's the case despite Bautista playing in only 92 games in 2012 due to a wrist injury is nothing short of remarkable, and the 27 home runs he hit last season serve as a reminder of just how powerful the 32-year-old right fielder's swing is.

First baseman Edwin Encarnacion, who picked up the slack in Bautista's absence and set a new career high with 42 home runs in 2012, will give him a run for his money, but Bautista will edge out his Blue Jays counterpart in the end.

Projected 2013 Home Run Total: 44

2012 Home Runs: 27

Career Home Runs: 183

Rank Among Active Players: 49

Rank All Time: 349

Atlanta Braves: Jason Heyward

As Jason Heyward's all-around game continues to develop, the raw power he possesses comes out just a bit more with each passing year.

His 27 home runs in 2012 set a new career high, and the 23-year-old right fielder will surpass those numbers in 2013, notching the first 30-home run season of his young career.

While an argument could certainly be made for first baseman Freddie Freeman, second baseman Dan Uggla or the Upton brothers in the outfield to accumulate the most long balls in 2013, it's Heyward, not yet in his prime, who will be Atlanta's home run king.

Projected 2013 Home Run Total: 32

2012 Home Runs: 27

Career Home Runs: 59

Rank Among Active Players: 204

Rank All Time: Outside the Top 1,000

Miami Marlins: Giancarlo Stanton

With as much raw power as anyone in the game today, Giancarlo Stanton could very likely go yard on a checked swing.

Miami's 23-year-old right fielder, one of the few players with considerable talent left on the barren Marlins roster, will far and away surpass the home run totals of his teammates in 2013—assuming that he sees any pitches to hit in the first place.

Stanton very well could be pitched around every time he steps to the plate, as teams take their chances with the oft-injured Logan Morrison or whoever fills his spot at first base when he winds up on the disabled list.

Projected 2013 Home Run Total: 44

2012 Home Runs: 37

Career Home Runs: 93

Rank Among Active Players: 132

Rank All Time: 845

New York Mets: Ike Davis

Third baseman David Wright might be the superstar, but first baseman Ike Davis is the preeminent slugger on the New York Mets.

Davis told ESPN New York's Adam Rubin recently that he was not healthy for much of the first half of the 2012 season, dealing with what some call "Valley Fever," which left Davis lethargic and weak.

Still, he paced the club with 32 home runs, 27 of which came over his final 98 games of the year.

Healthy heading into 2013, Davis, 25, certainly has 40-home run potential in his bat, though he won't reach that plateau this season.

Projected 2013 Home Run Total: 36

2012 Home Runs: 32

Career Home Runs: 58

Rank Among Active Players: 209

Rank All Time: Outside the Top 1,000

Philadelphia Phillies: Ryan Howard

Last season was one to forget for Phillies first baseman Ryan Howard, who missed all but two games in the first half of the season as he recovered from an Achilles tendon injury.

Upon his return, Howard was simply unable to get going, struggling to get on base with any regularity and finishing the season with the worst numbers of his career.

But the one thing that he did was go deep—14 times in 71 games, which tied him with left fielder John Mayberry Jr. for fourth on the team.

While fans might bemoan Howard's contract, they can't dispute that he's Philadelphia's biggest threat to go yard on a daily basis. It comes as no surprise that Howard's the pick to lead Philly in bombs in 2013.

Projected 2013 Home Run Total: 33

2012 Home Runs: 14

Career Home Runs: 300

Rank Among Active Players: 24

Rank All Time: 134

Washington Nationals: Bryce Harper

Somewhat overshadowed by his American League counterpart, Mike Trout, 2012 NL Rookie of the Year Bryce Harper flashed some of the skills that made him one of the most hyped prospects in the history of the game.

Not yet legally able to buy a beer, Harper hit 22 home runs in his rookie campaign, 13 of which came over the last two months of the season.

Were it not for hitting only one home run in July, there's an outside chance that Harper could have cracked 30 home runs in his rookie season.

He'll do it as a sophomore, grabbing the Nationals' home run lead from the hands of first baseman Adam LaRoche, who led the team with a career-high 33 home runs in 2012.

Projected 2013 Home Run Total: 34

2012 Home Runs: 22

Career Home Runs: 22

Rank Among Active Players: 337

Rank All Time: Outside the Top 1,000

Chicago White Sox: Adam Dunn

Adam Dunn does three things really well: He gets on base (a career .370 on-base percentage confirms that), he strikes out an inordinate numbers of times (his 222 in 2012 marked the fourth time he led the league in that category) and he hits home runs.

The White Sox designated hitter, Dunn, 33, put up the sixth 40-home run season of his career in 2012, pacing Chicago with 41 blasts on the season.

While his teammates have plenty of power, none are on the same level as Dunn, who has a real chance to pass Hall of Famer Andre Dawson (438 career home runs) and cement himself in the Top 40 on the all-time list.

Projected 2013 Home Run Total: 36

2012 Home Runs: 41

Career Home Runs: 406

Rank Among Active Players: 9

Rank All Time: 49

Cleveland Indians: Mark Reynolds

Cleveland's new first baseman for the 2013 season, Mark Reynolds, has never hit a home run in two active ballparks: Houston's Minute Maid Park and Cleveland's Progressive Field.

Both of those things figure to change this season.

While Reynolds managed only 23 home runs in 2012—his lowest number since hitting 17 as a rookie in 2007—15 of them came over the final two months of the season.

Reynolds will build on that strong finish in 2013, and while he won't get back to the 30-home run club for the fourth time in his career, the 29-year-old slugger will stay just a few blasts ahead of catcher Carlos Santana and right fielder Nick Swisher for the team lead.

Projected 2013 Home Run Total: 29

2012 Home Runs: 23

Career Home Runs: 181

Rank Among Active Players: 50

Rank All Time: 353

Detroit Tigers: Miguel Cabrera

There are only two options when it comes to picking which player will lead the Detroit Tigers in home runs: third baseman Miguel Cabrera or first baseman Prince Fielder.

While Fielder is certainly capable of going on a tear, you simply don't bet against the reigning AL MVP and the game's first Triple Crown winner in nearly 50 years, Cabrera, in much of anything.

Asking him to replicate his tremendous 2012 campaign is asking a bit much, but Cabrera, 29, will go yard well over 30 times in 2013, marking the seventh consecutive season in which he's accomplished that feat.

 

Projected 2013 Home Run Total: 39

2012 Home Runs: 44

Career Home Runs: 321

Rank Among Active Players: 20

Rank All Time: 110

Kansas City Royals: Billy Butler

One of the truly underrated players in the game, 26-year-old Billy Butler entered the prime seasons of his career with a bang in 2012, hitting a career-high 29 home runs while being selected for the first All-Star Game of his career.

His power was consistent throughout the season, never hitting fewer than four home runs in a month and finding more success away from Kaufman Stadium than in it, a bit odd considering that the Royals' home park averaged more than a home run per game in 2012.

Kansas City has a pair of young sluggers in first baseman Eric Hosmer and third baseman Mike Moustakas who will one day lay claim to the team's home run lead, but with Butler poised for another breakout season, now is not their time.

Projected 2013 Home Run Total: 33

2012 Home Runs: 29

Career Home Runs: 103

Rank Among Active Players: 125

Rank All Time: 755

Minnesota Twins: Trevor Plouffe

Trevor Plouffe may seem like an odd choice on a team that features a pair of veteran sluggers in left fielder Josh Willingham and first baseman Justin Morneau, but the Twins' 26-year-old third baseman is the pick to lead the team in home runs this season.

Plouffe got national attention in 2012 after slugging 11 home runs in the month of June last season, a 26-game stretch that accounted for nearly half of his power output on the year.

His power may very well come in clumps once again in 2013, but with Morneau and Willingham both trade chips that the Twins may play this summer, Plouffe could be the winner by default.

Even if the pair of veterans stay with the Twins throughout the season, Plouffe still has an excellent shot at being the last man standing in the home run race at Target Field.

Projected 2013 Home Run Total: 27

2012 Home Runs: 24

Career Home Runs: 34

Rank Among Active Players: 273

Rank All Time: Out of the Top 1,000

Chicago Cubs: Anthony Rizzo

Anthony Rizzo didn't make his Cubs debut until late June, but once he did, it became clear to anyone watching that the 23-year-old first baseman had a bright future.

With a powerful left-handed swing that doesn't necessarily need any help from the winds at Wrigley Field to get the ball over the ivy, there's little question that Rizzo has the talent to become one of the game's best sluggers as he continues to develop.

For now, however, he'll battle left fielder Alfonso Soriano for the team lead in long balls, narrowly edging out his veteran teammate for the top spot on an improving Cubs roster.

Projected 2013 Home Run Total: 28

2012 Home Runs: 15

Career Home Runs: 16

Rank Among Active Players: 390

Rank All Time: Outside the Top 1,000

Cincinnati Reds: Jay Bruce

Coming off of a 2012 season that saw him set a new career high with 34 home runs, 25-year-old right fielder Jay Bruce continues to improve on a yearly basis.

Playing half of his games at Great American Ballpark, home to the second-most home runs per game in MLB last season, Bruce heads into the prime of his career with a real shot at becoming one of the game's biggest sluggers.

He'll take the next step toward that goal in 2013, cracking the 40-home run plateau for the first time in his career, hitting in the heart of a potent Cincinnati lineup.

Projected 2013 Home Run Total: 40

2012 Home Runs: 34

Career Home Runs: 134

Rank Among Active Players: 91

Rank All Time: 533

Milwaukee Brewers: Ryan Braun

Whether you think he's a PED cheat or not, Ryan Braun continues to put up monster numbers in the heart of Milwaukee's lineup on a yearly basis, and that's not going to change in 2013.

While more than half of his career home runs have come at Miller Park, which saw more home runs per game than any other stadium in MLB last season, Braun's ability to drive the ball to all fields makes him a threat to go deep regardless of the venue.

A perennial MVP candidate, Braun set a new career high with an NL-best 41 home runs in 2012. With his name being mentioned with PEDs yet again this winter, how will the "Hebrew Hammer" perform in the power department this season?

Just off the pace of his 2012 campaign, but he'll still be among the league leaders when the season comes to an end.

Projected 2013 Home Run Total: 38

2012 Home Runs: 41

Career Home Runs: 202

Rank Among Active Players: 43

Rank All Time: 297

Pittsburgh Pirates: Pedro Alvarez

By and large, Pedro Alvarez has been a huge disappointment since the Pirates made him the second overall pick in the 2008 MLB draft.

He doesn't hit for average, doesn't get on base consistently and plays a below-average third base.

What he has begun to show the ability to do, however, is go deep. Alvarez's 30 home runs in 2012 trailed center fielder Andrew McCutchen by one for the team lead.

With McCutchen sure to see fewer pitches to drive in 2013, the door is open for Alvarez to emerge as the biggest home run threat in the Steel City.

Garrett Jones will give Alvarez a run for his money, but the 26-year-old third baseman, entering the prime of his career, will hold off the hard-charging first baseman.

Projected 2013 Home Run Total: 30

2012 Home Runs: 30

Career Home Runs: 50

Rank Among Active Players: 222

Rank All Time: Outside the Top 1,000

St. Louis Cardinals: Allen Craig

Allen Craig isn't the most high-profile slugger in the St. Louis Cardinals lineup, but the 28-year-old first baseman will round the bases more often than his veteran teammates, Matt Holliday and Carlos Beltran, do in 2013.

Craig smacked 14 home runs in only 41 games leading up to the All-Star break only to watch his power fizzle out down the stretch. After hitting five home runs per month from May through August, Craig managed only two long balls in September and October.

With a full season's worth of at-bats in front of him, Craig will find the extra power needed to best Beltran and Holliday for the team lead.

Projected 2013 Home Run Total: 28

2012 Home Runs: 22

Career Home Runs: 37

Rank Among Active Players: 256

Rank All Time: Outside the Top 1,000

Arizona Diamondbacks: Paul Goldschmidt

With Justin Upton no longer patrolling right field in Arizona, the door is wide open for first baseman Paul Goldschmidt to stake his claim to the title of preeminent slugger in the Diamondbacks lineup.

A 25-year-old first baseman whose power is still developing, Goldschmidt will take the next step in his development in 2013, fending off a challenge from left fielder Jason Kubel and second baseman Aaron Hill.

Projected 2013 Home Run Total: 28

2012 Home Runs: 20

Career Home Runs: 28

Rank Among Active Players: 303

Rank All Time: Out of the Top 1,000

Colorado Rockies: Troy Tulowitzki

Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado's 28-year-old shortstop, will reassert himself as a perennial MVP candidate and the best shortstop in the game in 2013.

A groin injury ended Tulowitzki's 2012 season early, and while he's had somewhat of an issue staying healthy, there's no reason to expect anything but a return to his former glory for the Rockies this season.

Playing half of your games in the thin air of Denver certainly doesn't impair a player's ability to go yard. While left fielder Carlos Gonzalez will hit his fair share of long balls, it's Tulowitzki, who averaged 30 home runs a season from 2009 through 2011, who will lead the team in that category.

Projected 2013 Home Run Total: 30

2012 Home Runs: 8

Career Home Runs: 130

Rank Among Active Players: 98

Rank All Time: 558

Los Angeles Dodgers: Matt Kemp

Matt Kemp set some lofty expectations for himself heading into the 2012 season: 50 home runs and 50 stolen bases in the same season, something only two players—Barry Bonds and Brady Anderson—have ever accomplished.

Both of those players have the stench of PEDs floating around them. Matt Kemp does not.

That didn't prevent Kemp from getting off to a fiery start to the season, smacking 12 home runs in the first season of the month and making it look like he was going to reach his goal of 50 home runs without much of a problem.

First, a hamstring injury cost him more than 50 games early in the season; then an injured left shoulder knocked him out yet again—an injury that required surgery to repair.

Fully healthy, there's no reason to doubt that Kemp won't find himself among the league leaders in long balls this season.

Projected 2013 Home Run Total: 32

2012 Home Runs: 23

Career Home Runs: 151

Rank Among Active Players: 68

Rank All Time: 453

San Diego Padres: Chase Headley

San Diego third baseman Chase Headley is coming off of his breakout campaign, one that saw him lead the National League in RBI and finish eighth in the NL in home runs, with 31.

With the fences being moved in at Petco Park, Headley, 28, is hitting his stride at just the right time.

Left fielder Carlos Quentin would be a legitimate challenger for Headley were he able to stay on the field, but seeing as how he's never played in more than 131 games in any season, he simply won't have the plate appearances needed to keep pace with his talented teammate.

Projected 2013 Home Run Total: 25

2012 Home Runs: 31

Career Home Runs: 67

Rank Among Active Players: 182

Rank All-Time: Outside the Top 1,000

San Francisco Giants: Buster Posey

Calling 2012 a good season for San Francisco catcher Buster Posey would be a gross understatement.

The National League batting champion, Comeback Player of the Year and MVP, the 25-year-old catcher set career highs in every offensive category, home runs included.

His 24 blasts led the Giants last season, and he'll make it two years in a row again in 2013.

With the injury-prone Pablo Sandoval and the underwhelming Hunter Pence as his primary competition on the team, Posey's continued development will lead him to an easy victory over his fellow World Series champion teammates.

Projected 2013 Home Run Total: 27

2012 Home Runs: 24

Career Home Runs: 46

Rank Among Active Players: 229

Rank All Time: Outside the Top 1,000

Houston Astros: Chris Carter

Acquired from the Oakland A's as part of the trade that sent shortstop Jed Lowrie to Oakland, 26-year-old Chris Carter gets his first chance to start on a daily basis in the major leagues in 2013.

Carter has always had power, evidenced by five minor league seasons with at least 20 home runs, but he struggled to make contact in the big leagues up until last season, when he went deep 16 times in limited playing time for the A's.

The increased playing time will see his numbers increase as well, and he'll be the biggest bopper in an Astros lineup that will need as much help as it can get heading into the team's first season as members of the American League.

 

Projected 2013 Home Run Total: 27

2012 Home Runs: 16

Career Home Runs: 19

Rank Among Active Players: 357

Rank All-Time: Outside the Top 1,000

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: Albert Pujols

Remember when people said that Albert Pujols was done?

The future first-ballot Hall of Famer struggled mightily as he tried to adjust to a new team and a new league. Once he got his feet under him, however, Pujols looked every bit like the three-time MVP that he is.

Of the 30 home runs that Pujols hit on the season, 29 of them came between the months of May and August—he hit one home run in the 52 games that he played in April, September and October combined.

We won't see that sort of lengthy power outage from Pujols again in 2012, and he'll beat out newcomer Josh Hamilton and hot-shot sophomore Mike Trout for the team lead in long balls.

Projected 2013 Home Run Total: 37

2012 Home Runs: 30

Career Home Runs: 475

Rank Among Active Players: 4

Rank All Time: 28

Oakland A's: Yoenis Cespedes

Despite missing significant time with injury in May, 2012 can only be labeled a successful rookie campaign for the Oakland A's 27-year-old left fielder, Yoenis Cespedes.

While right fielder Josh Reddick led the team with 32 long balls in 2012, nine more than Cespedes, the Cuban import missed significant time in May and June with injury, time that stunted his adjustment to a new league.

With a full season under his belt, Cespedes will emerge as a legitimate force in the middle of Oakland's lineup.

Projected 2013 Home Run Total: 29

2012 Home Runs: 23

Career Home Runs: 23

Rank Among Active Players: 329

Rank All-Time: Outside the Top 1,000

Seattle Mariners: Mike Morse

Mike Morse isn't Josh Hamilton or Justin Upton, two big-time sluggers that the Mariners tried to acquire this winter, but the 30-year-old has enough pop in his bat to lead a Mariners lineup in need of a power surge.

With reconfigured outfield walls at Safeco Field, Morse and another newcomer—designated hitter Kendrys Morales—will do battle for the home run lead in the Emerald City.

While it wouldn't shock me to see Morales win at the end, Morse, who was unceremoniously pushed out of Washington after averaging 21 home runs a season since 2010 for the Nationals, will just edge Morales out for the honor.

Projected 2013 Home Run Total: 25

2012 Home Runs: 18

Career Home Runs: 70

Rank Among Active Players: 177

Rank All Time: Outside the Top 1,000

Texas Rangers: Adrian Beltre

Despite the loss of sluggers Josh Hamilton and Mike Napoli this offseason, there isn't a power outage underway at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. The park itself forbids it, allowing the seventh-most home runs in MLB last season.

As does All-Star third baseman Adrian Beltre, who has averaged 34 home runs a year since becoming a Ranger prior to the 2011 season. While he celebrates his 34th birthday in April, he's shown no signs of slowing down and is poised for another big season at the plate.

While Beltre and the rest of the AL West will benefit from having extra games against the Houston Astros, he'll fall just short of the 36 bombs that he hit in 2012.

Texas travels to Busch Stadium in St. Louis, Miller Park in Milwaukee and Wrigley Field in Chicago for interleague play this season—three places where Beltre has never gone yard.

Projected 2013 Home Run Total: 34

2012 Home Runs: 36

Career Home Runs: 346

Rank Among Active Players: 15

Rank All Time: 88