Handicapping the Title Chase in Every Major NCAA Basketball Conference

Conference play is well underway throughout NCAA basketball, and there are some unexpected teams holding on to first place in some of the country’s biggest leagues. It’s another question entirely, however, whether the likes of Oregon and Miami can stay atop the standings through the next six weeks of action.

Nowhere is the finish looking tighter than in the Big East, where No. 4 Syracuse overtook No. 5 Louisville with a thrilling win on the Cardinals’ home floor. Will the Orange hold on, or will the Cards and the rest of a talented conference field take them down by season’s end?

Herein, projections for the favorites in all six power conferences, along with other key teams to watch in the races for the country’s biggest regular-season crowns.

ACC

Favorite: No. 1 Duke has the country’s best player (Mason Plumlee) and the conference’s most reliable offense. No ACC team can match the Blue Devils’ senior leadership. Odds: 3-to-1

Challenger: No. 18 N.C. State is well-stocked with scoring options, though long-range shooting is in short supply. The physical Wolfpack front line has already earned a win over Duke, but they’ve been playing down to the level of their competition since. Odds: 8-to-1

Challenger: First-place Miami has just cracked the AP rankings at No. 25, though they’ll have to beat Duke on Wednesday to stay there. The ‘Canes boast one of the country’s biggest frontcourts, but point guard play could be their undoing. Odds: 12-to-1

Dark Horse: Inexperienced North Carolina got off to a slow start in the league, but the Tar Heels feature an underrated defense and bales of talent. Late-season home games against NC State and Duke could help them spring the upset. Odds: 20-to-1

Big 12

Favorite: Driven by a smothering defense, No. 2 Kansas has been the class of the Big 12 all season. The rise of dynamic redshirt freshman Ben McLemore has been a vital addition to the offense. Odds: 3-to-2

Challenger: Thirteenth-ranked Kansas State had won eight in a row before falling to the Jayhawks Tuesday. Rodney McGruder needs more help on offense, but the Wildcats defense is a major weapon. Odds: 8-to-1

Challenger: Baylor’s towering frontcourt is raw, but when the Bears are on, they’re tough to handle. Senior PG Pierre Jackson is the key to this team’s hopes. Odds: 15-to-1

Dark Horse: Iowa State’s corps of three-point gunners makes it a huge upset threat on any given night. If the Cyclones defense improves even marginally, they’ll be a scary late-season foe. Odds: 30-to-1

Big East

Favorite: Despite back-to-back painful losses, No. 5 Louisville is the team to beat here. The Cardinals’ combination of defensive playmakers and Final Four experience will be tough to overcome in the long run. Odds: 6-to-1

Challenger: No. 4 Syracuse will go as far as Michael Carter-Williams can take it. The Orange defense is rock-solid, but the offense is short on individual weapons aside from its stellar sophomore PG. Odds: 7-to-1

Challenger: Notre Dame’s Jack Cooley, one of the country’s toughest post players, anchors a bruising defense. On offense, though, the 23rd-ranked Irish have fizzled during their current 1-3 slump against Big East foes. Odds: 9-to-1

Dark Horse: No. 20 Cincinnati relies entirely on perimeter players for its scoring, which is always a risky way to live. When Sean Kilpatrick and company are hitting their shots, though, their hard-working defense can keep them in any game. Odds: 15-to-1

Big Ten

Favorite: No. 8 Indiana’s devastating offense includes the league’s best pair of scoring big men in Cody Zeller and Christian Watford. The biggest threat to the Hoosiers may be a back-loaded schedule that packs visits to Michigan State, Minnesota and Michigan into the last five games. Odds: 4-to-1

Challenger: Michigan is back up to No. 3 in the rankings behind Trey Burke’s unstoppable offense. The Wolverines can be pushed around inside, but only a few teams (even in this physical conference) are good enough to make that vulnerability matter. Odds: 9-to-2

Challenger: Eleventh-ranked Michigan State gets the nod, barely, over the other defense-first powerhouses of the Big Ten. Branden Dawson and Gary Harris give the Spartans the edge with their dynamic offensive abilities. Odds: 7-to-1

Dark Horse: Wisconsin’s defense is strong enough to make every game a nail-biter. The offense-by-committee can be shut down (as Michigan State did on Tuesday), but it’s good enough to win plenty of ballgames. Odds: 10-to-1

Pac-12

Favorite: No. 19 Oregon already owns head-to-head wins over both Arizona and UCLA in a 5-0 conference start. Newcomers Arsalan Kazemi and Dominic Artis have the Ducks defense playing near the level of their versatile offense. Odds: 4-to-1

Challenger: Sixth-ranked Arizona has one of the league’s most physical frontcourts, not to mention a penchant for late-game heroics. Mark Lyons could use a bit more help on the offensive end, though. Odds: 5-to-1

Challenger: UCLA has had its rough patches, but the Bruins have the conference’s best offense behind Shabazz Muhammad and Jordan Adams. If combo forward Kyle Anderson gets on track, watch out. Odds: 8-to-1

Dark Horse: Colorado is off to a wretched 2-4 start in the league, but among the Pac-12 also-rans, no one has more talent than the Buffaloes. Josh Scott and Andre Roberson are a fearsome pair inside, but poor point guard play has held them back. Odds: 45-to-1

SEC

Favorite: No. 7 Florida’s high-intensity defense can overpower any offense in the SEC. Improved scoring from the supporting cast has taken a lot of pressure off Kenny Boynton. Odds: 3-to-2

Challenger: 24th-ranked Ole Miss has finally earned some respect with wins over Missouri and Tennessee. Conference stat leaders Marshall Henderson (scoring) and Murphy Holloway (rebounding) create daunting matchup problems. Odds: 7-to-1

Challenger: No. 22 Missouri is off to a slow start in conference action, but they’ll be a different team when Laurence Bowers returns from his knee injury. Whether struggling Phil Pressey can regain his effectiveness will determine how dangerous the Tigers can be. Odds: 12-to-1

Dark Horse: Freshman-laden Kentucky is only getting better with more experience. If they can keep the conference race close, Nerlens Noel and his athletic teammates could spring a surprise when they host Florida in the regular-season finale. Odds: 24-to-1